NCAA Upsets 2013: Top-Four Seeds in Each Region That Won't Reach Sweet 16

It's tempting to fill out a bracket with chalk instead of pen. There's a reason the top 16 seeds were rated the top 16 teams; they showed, over the sample size of an entire season, how good they're capable of playing. 

But come March, as we're all no doubt apprised, those sample sizes end up meaning diddly squat. This is a special month, a magical month, where chalk, while tempting, ends up being pretty much useless.

In most proven cases, at least one upset happens to a top four seed in most of the NCAA regions. Every underdog must have its day, and during March Madness, those days aren't few and far between.

So let's take a look at how it might play out this year. Will your team be one of the giants who falls? One of the cinderellas who goes dancing? Time to find out.

Here's the most likely top four seed to fall on the opening weekend:

West: No. 4 Kansas State

Kansas State certainly passes the eye test. They're big, they're strong, they're physical—a manifestation of their former head coach, Frank Martin. They also have the offensive coaching savvy of new boss Bruce Weber, which has made them far more palatable to watch than they were in previous seasons.

All of that has helped them become the most overrated team in college basketball.

They rank 30th in Ken Pomeroy's end-of-year rankings, behind NIT teams like Iowa and Virginia, who didn't even qualify for the tournament. They're inflated by the fact that they only lost once conference game to not-Kansas, but in this year's Big 12, is that really that impressive.

The Wildcats will have their hands full with the winner of Boise State and La Salle, so making it out of Round 1 is no gimme. If they do, the Wisconsin Buzzcuts will be waiting, and knowing Bruce Weber as well as they do, they'll probably portend doom.

Midwest: No. 4 St. Louis

This one was tough: I hate ending up with chalk, but on my bracket, I actually have all four top seeds making it to the Sweet 16 here.

So no, I don't necessarily think St. Louis will lose in the first two rounds. But I certainly wouldn't be surprised, which is more than I can say about Louisville, Michigan State and Duke.

The Billikens have had a remarkable season following Rick Majerus' death, and their schedule actually shakes up nicely. Neither New Mexico State nor Oklahoma State nor Oregon terrifies me that much, although I admit they're all decently good.

What scares me are the occasional bouts of offensive incompetence. Defense wins in March, but in a region where everyone plays incredible defense, that might not be enough.

St. Louis needs its offense to be firing on all cylinders during the first two rounds, otherwise they might get bounced.

South: No. 1 Kansas

And down goes Frazier!

Seriously, though: Kansas is good, but it's no Joe Frazier. And North Carolina isn't its traditional, incredible self, but its far from an also-ran. So Kansas is both (1) really upset at the Selection Committee for screwing them, but also (2) rooting earnestly for Villanova in win in Round 1.

If it doesn't, Kansas could be in trouble. There's a reason people thought so highly of UNC before the season started, and though they've been a little disappointing, those reasons still do exist.

They Jayhawks are big and they're strong, and when they're on their game they really are good. They have bodies that can match Kansas physically, which is something they didn't want to see this early.

If P.J. Hairston can play like he's occasionally proven capable of, don't be that surprised to see North Carolina spring the upset. Kansas is good, but they've shown themselves vulnerable of occasional slip-ups. Do the words Texas Christian University mean anything to you?

Don't be afraid to go bold here.

East: No. 3 Marquette

Marquette is probably the weak No. 3 seed in the field, which is trouble, because they're also set up to play a trio of the strongest mid-majors.

No time needs to be spent on the threat posed by Butler. Brad Stevens is a tournament wizard, and when he's on the bench, especially with the cast he's got, there's no sense in betting against him. Especially when they've already beaten Marquette this season. And while 2013 Davidson is a far cry from 2008 Davidson, that doesn't mean they'll be a walk in the park.

But if I'm Marquette, I'm shaking in my boots over Bucknell more than any other squad. Mike Muscala has legitimate superstar potential, and in almost conceivable way, strikes me as the best individual performer in the Lexington pod.

Marquette, through its experience in the Big East, has experience guarding players of his size. But even though he plays in the Patriot League, there are few college big guys that can prepare them for his skill.

If the undersized Eagles end up playing Bucknell, they better be ready to defend. Otherwise it could be an early exit for Buzz Williams and Co.