St. Pierre vs. Diaz: What Challenger Must Do to Upset GSP

Per VegasInsider.com and most publications, Nick Diaz will be an underdog when he takes on Georges St. Pierre Saturday night at UFC 158. Not only is GSP one of the most skilled and respected fighters in the sport, the fight also takes place in his hometown.

Diaz will have to overcome GSP and the inspiration provided by his legions of fans sure to pack the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

Even with those odds, we'd be foolish to think Diaz can't win. He's incredibly skilled and tough himself, but there is no doubt that there are reasons why GSP is favored.

If Diaz hopes to pull the upset, here are three keys to his improbable victory.

Don't Let the Crowd and the Moment Get To Him

Diaz talks a lot of trash, and he's quick to deliver an insult, but I wonder where his confidence level is heading into this fight. He's already accused GSP of using steroids, per ESPN, and to me that almost sounds like a pre-arranged excuse for losing.

Once he walks into the Octagon and hears all the boos, chants, etc. Will he be able to tune that out and fight?

I know Diaz has been in some tough environments in his life, but he's never fought on a stage this big, with an opponent of this caliber, and most certainly not so squarely centered in his enemy's territory.

Diaz has to keep his head if he wants to win.

Stay off the Mat

Diaz has improved his ground game, but he is still no match for GSP as a grappler. The champion is better technically and physically stronger than Diaz.

GSP could perhaps make this a boring and one-sided fight by taking Diaz down, and controlling him for a large portion of the fight.

He may elect to stand longer than he needs to, just to give his hometown fans a show, and Diaz must hope that GSP gets locked into a stand-up mentality.

Make the Strikes Count

He may not get a lot of opportunities to strike, but when he does, he better make them count. If he dings GSP, but doesn't hurt him badly enough to finish him, you can bet the champion will be looking for the takedown shortly thereafter.

In these relatively small windows of time, Diaz must strike effectively, all the while avoiding the counter takedowns that are GSP's signature.

It's going to be tough for Diaz, but if he's able to do these things, he has a shot at winning.

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