The Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for the Top 20 Teams in the Tournament

Bubble buzz and early-round upsets make for nice chitchat, but the NCAA tournament is won and lost at the top.

Since the field expanded to 64 in 1985, all but seven of the 112 Final Four participants have been seeded fifth or higher.

So if you've got your eye on the endgame, these 20 teams are the ones that deserve your attention.

That in mind, we've taking a closer look at every top-five seed, predicting how each might flourish or flail in the March melee ahead.

Louisville

Record: 29-5, 14-4 (Big East)

Seed: No. 1, Midwest Region

Best-Case Scenario

The Cardinals' peerless blend of interior defense and press-oriented puckishness propels them to a third national championship. Russ Smith is named Final Four MOP. John Calipari's favorite hair gel goes out of production.

Worst-Case Scenario

Peyton Siva struggles with turnovers, the press fails to impress and an erratic Louisville offense comes up small in the round of 16. The most complete team in Rick Pitino's tenure as head coach fails to reach the regional final.

In Their Path

Oklahoma State and star guard Marcus Smart could give the Cardinals trouble in the Sweet 16. Smart and his fellow guards are not only capable of locking down Louisville's Russ Smith, but they should do a decent job countering Louisville's relentless press defense.

Kansas

Record: 29-5, 14-4 (Big 12)

Seed: No. 1, South Region

Best-Case Scenario

Jeff Withey's interior defense stifles opponents from start to fish. Kansas gets enough standalone offense from freshman standout Ben McLemore to overcome its suspect ball-handling. The Jayhawks make their second consecutive national title game; only this time, they walk away champions.

Worst-Case Scenario

Point guard duo Elijah Johnson and Naadir Tharpe struggle with ball security, leaving McLemore—a reluctant ball-handler—to languish on the wings. The Jayhawks go cold from the field in Round 3 and lose a low-scoring slugfest on the final possession.

In Their Path

Kansas has struggled with turnovers all year, and VCU's havoc defense is designed to exploit that exact weakness. Shaka Smart's team could see the Jayhawks in the round of 16.

Indiana

Record: 27-6, 14-4 (Big Ten)

Seed: No. 1, East Region

Best-Case Scenario

The preseason No. 1 rolls to the Final Four on the strength of its high-powered offense. Once there, Victor Oladipo's perimeter defense proves the difference, and Indiana walks away with its sixth national title. Every columnist in America files some version of the "Indiana is back" story. Tom Crean solves the budget crisis.

Worst-Case Scenario

Pitted against a slow-tempo team, Tom Crean's Hoosiers can't pick up easy points in transition, and star center Cody Zeller disappears in the half court. Indiana's defense fails to come up with crucial stops down the stretch, and the Hoosiers fall short of their lofty preseason expectations by failing to make the Final Four.

In Their Path

Marquette isn't a great defensive team, but the Golden Eagles play the kind of style that can limit Indiana's transition opportunities.

Gonzaga

Record: 31-2, 16-0 (WCC)

Seed: No. 1, West Region

Best-Case Scenario

Canadian big man Kelly Olynyk dominates. Mike Hart plays lockdown D. Gonzaga's offense is as good as the efficiency metrics suggest. And more than a decade after breaking onto the March Madness scene, the Bulldogs bookend their Cinderella story by becoming the first mid-major in the Power Six era to win a national championship

Worst-Case Scenario

Gonzaga loses early to an opponent with big, athletic guards. Twitter floods with awful jokes about Canada and long hair. The Bulldogs, having had their Waterloo moment, recede from the national spotlight forever.

In Their Path

Pittsburgh could be all kinds of trouble for the 'Zags in Round 3. The Panthers have the kind of interior length that could bother Olynyk and frontcourt mate Elias Harris.

Ohio State

Record: 26-7, 13-5 (Big Ten)

Seed: No. 2, West Region

Best-Case Scenario

Super-'tweener Deshaun Thomas carries the offensive load for Ohio State, while Aaron Craft and the nation's most disruptive half-court defense keep the opposition in shackles. Steeled by one of the nation's toughest schedules, Thad Matta's team claws its way to the national championship game.

Worst-Case Scenario

Thomas' offensive mastery can't save his team from its startling lack of scoring depth. Even with a solid contribution from the Big Ten scoring leader, the Buckeyes fall in Round 3 to a hot-shooting opponent.

In Their Path

Whomever the Buckeyes face in Round 3, it'll be a team that can shoot the rock. Seventh-seeded Notre Dame doesn't launch from beyond quite as much as its opening-round opponent, Iowa State, but both teams play the kind of offense that should test Thad Matta's group.

Miami

Record: 27-6, 15-3 (ACC)

Seed: No. 2, East Region

Best-Case Scenario

Miami's frontcourt length demoralizes opposing offenses, and the Hurricanes get enough perimeter scoring from Shane Larkin to stave off any early-round upsets. In a back-and-forth regional final, senior Kenny Kadji's inside-out game propels the program to its first ever Final Four appearance.

Worst-Case Scenario

Long in the tooth but short on postseason experience, Miami looks overwhelmed on the big stage. After surviving a scare in Round 3, Jim Larranaga's Hurricanes are buried in the Sweet 16 by an opponent that can match their front-line activity.

In Their Path

Colorado could be a tough out for Miami if the 10th-seeded Buffaloes make it to Round 3. Rebounding menace Andre Roberson is plenty capable of handling the Hurricanes' length down low, and lead guard Spencer Dinwiddie looks like a potential foil for Miami star Shane Larkin.

Georgetown

Record: 25-6, 14-4 (Big East)

Seed: No. 2, South Region

Best-Case Scenario

Superstar forward Otto Porter Jr. has one of those tournaments (think Carmelo, 2003), dragging a mediocre offense all the way to the title game. Along the way, John Thompson III's Hoyas play their typical dogged defense, and freshman D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera continues to emerge as a bright young floor leader.

Worst-Case Scenario

The Georgetown team that scored 37 points against Tennessee, 46 points against Towson and 48 points against Marquette re-emerges in the round of 16. Despite Porter's best efforts, a cold-shooting night from a suspect supporting cast leads to early-round disappointment. 

In Their Path

The Hoyas could see seventh-seeded San Diego State in Round 3. And if they do, the Aztecs should make life miserable for Georgetown's offense. Steve Fisher also has a future pro of his own in Jamaal Franklin, a player capable of matching Porter point for point.

Duke

Record: 27-5, 14-4 (ACC)

Seed: No. 2, Midwest Region

Best-Case Scenario

Ryan Kelly maintains his post-injury excellence, spreading the floor on offense while playing quarterback on D. The Blue Devils do just enough defensively to survive their one off-shooting night, and Seth Curry takes over down the stretch to deliver a fifth national championship, matching North Carolina.

Worst-Case Scenario

Duke continues to struggle against athletic frontcourt players, and the Top 25's worst rebounding team can't corral enough of its own misses to withstand a bad shooting performance or two. Mason Plumlee plays tepid defense, and the Blue Devils fall in Round 3.

In Their Path

Creighton is looming in Round 3, and the Bluejays should have no trouble scoring on Duke's defense. Expect an entertaining game if these two meet.

Michigan State

Record: 25-8, 13-5 (Big Ten)

Seed: No. 3, Midwest Region

Best-Case Scenario

Michigan State bullies its way to the regional final behind forwards Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix. In the tournament's latter stages, Tom Izzo gives freshman Gary Harris the green light to take over from the perimeter. Point guard Keith Appling plays distributor instead of hero, and the Spartans make their first national championship appearance since 2009. An unrelated postseason NCAA inquiry determines that "Maize" is the world's stupidest color.

Worst-Case Scenario

Appling settles for too many jump shots and makes a rash of crucial mistakes while Harris is squeezed out of the offense. Michigan State's stifling D can't offset an inconsistent offense, and the Spartans fall in the Sweet 16. 

In Their Path

Whether its Saint Louis or Louisville advancing from the top half of the region, Michigan State is more than likely going to see a good pressure defense at some point before reaching the Final Four. Tom Izzo's guards will be tested, particularly Appling.

Florida

Record: 26-7, 14-4 (SEC)

Seed: No. 3, South Region

Best-Case Scenario

Florida knocks down its threes, smothers its opponents and cruises to the Final Four. In Atlanta, Billy Donovan's team uses its balance and experience (all five Gators starters are upperclassmen) to outclass its more celebrated foes en route to a national championship win. UPS delivers the championship trophy to Gainesville in a timely manner. Logistics!

Worst-Case Scenario

The threes don't fall, the defense is only so-so and Florida—which is 0-6 this season in games decided by single digits—loses yet another tightfisted affair. Only this time it's in the Sweet 16, and it ends the Gators' season.

In Their Path

Georgetown has played countless tight games this year and won more than its fair share. Florida meanwhile has been brutal in late-game situations. If these two meet in the Sweet 16, the Gators could be in for a fight.

Marquette

Record: 23-8, 14-4 (Big East)

Seed: No. 3, East Region

Best-Case Scenario

The Golden Eagles' uber-efficient two-point offense springs them past a top seed in the Sweet 16 and on to the regional final. Davante Gardner dominates the offensive glass and Junior Cadougan proves why he's one of the most underrated distributors in the nation.

Worst-Case Scenario

Marquette's atrocious three-point shooting—the Golden Eagles shoot under 30 percent from beyond—comes back to bite them. After falling behind early against a lower-seeded opponent, Buzz Williams' team can't dig itself out, and Marquette loses its opening-round game for just the second time in the last six seasons.

In Their Path

Colorado is one of the better teams in the country when it comes to keeping opponents off the free-throw line. Marquette, meanwhile, relies on freebies to keep its high-efficiency offense humming. If these two meet in Round 3, it could spell trouble for the Golden Eagles.

New Mexico

Record: 29-5, 13-3 (Mountain West)

Seed: No. 3, West Region

Best-Case Scenario

Thanks to a menacing front line, New Mexico rolls through the opening rounds. Star guard Kendall Williams takes care of the rest, scoring just enough from beyond to spearhead the Lobos' first ever regional finals runs.

Worst-Case Scenario

One of the nation's poorer two-point shooting teams, New Mexico wilts on offense, much like it did in last year's third-round loss to Louisville. Despite high-major athleticism at multiple positions, Steve Alford's team fails to make the second weekend yet again.

In Their Path

Arizona can match New Mexico inch of inch in the front court, and the Wildcats' defensive rebounding metrics suggest the Lobos won't get many second-chance opportunities if these two meet in Round 3.

Kansas State

Record: 27-67, 14-4 (Big 12)

Seed: No. 4, West Region

Best-Case Scenario

Kansas State's arsenal of three-point shooters provides cover aplenty for its suspect field-goal defense. On the strength of point guard Angel Rodriguez's steady play, the Wildcats roll through to the Elite Eight.

Worst-Case Scenario

Reminiscent of earlier losses to Kansas and Gonzaga, the Wildcats struggle to contain an athletic front line and lose on the opening weekend. A 10-year scientific study reveals that Bruce Weber is actually just two badgers stacked head-to-tail.

In Their Path

Boise State defends the three-point line well, which could be a challenge for Kansas State's guards if the Broncos and Wildcats square off in Round 2.

Syracuse

Record: 26-9, 11-7 (Big East)

Seed: No. 4, East Region

Best-Case Scenario

Michael Carter-Williams sidelines his jump shot and works instead to get open looks for others. C.J. Fair and James Southerland knock down their shots, and Rakeem Christmas keeps the painted area on lock. Syracuse carries its hot play from the Big East tournament into the NCAAs and makes the Final Four for the first time since winning it all in 2003.

Worst-Case Scenario

The offense sputters and Carter-Williams plays outside his abilities in an attempt to save the day. The Orangemen run into a good offensive-rebounding team in the third round and lose by a bucket. All those supposedly apocryphal Jim Boeheim retirement rumors turn out to be true, and the legendary coach walks away after 37 years at the helm.

In Their Path

UNLV is a good rebounding team, and Syracuse has struggled at times to keep teams off the offensive glass. Runnin' Rebels star Anthony Bennett in particular would be tough a matchup for the Orangemen if these teams meet in Round 3.

Michigan

Record: 26-7, 12-6 (Big Ten)

Seed: No. 4, South Region

Best-Case Scenario

Trey Burke catches fire and Glenn Robinson III rediscovers the form that made him one of America's five best freshmen over the season's first two months. Michigan's runaway offense leads to early-round routs and late-round thrillers—all of which end with John Belein's team on top. As a reunited Fab Five watches courtside, the Wolverines stamp their revival with a Final Four appearance.

Worst-Case Scenario

Lacking depth, experience and interior defense, Michigan gets caught trading buckets with an inferior opponent. As it was against Penn State earlier this year, said inferior opponent surges last and the Wolverines lose in the opening round.

In Their Path

It'd be fascinating to see Michigan play fifth-seeded VCU in Round 3. The Wolverines are the nation's best at taking care of the ball on offense. The Rams are the nation's best at turning teams over. Both teams rely on those respective strengths to win games.

Saint Louis

Record: 27-6, 13-3 (Atlantic 10)

Seed: No. 4, Midwest Region

Best-Case Scenario

The Billikens' rough-and-tumble brand of defense plays perfectly in the wild-and-open NCAA tournament. On offense, Mike McCall and Cody Ellis knock down just enough threes to spur the A-10 champs past the round of 16.

Worst-Case Scenario

Saint Louis, which relies heavily on free throws to fuel its offense, doesn't get the calls it needs to score points. After a surprising regular season, the feel-good Billikens can't compensate for a so-so attack and fall early.

In Their Path

Like Saint Louis, Oklahoma State has an outstanding defense that isn't afraid to play rough. If these two meet in the round of 32, points will be at a premium.

Oklahoma State

Record: 24-8, 13-5 (Big 12)

Seed: No. 5, Midwest Region

Best-Case Scenario

Le'Bryan Nash does the slashing, Markel Brown provides the highlights and freshman superstar Marcus Smart does everything else. Travis Ford's team rides its menacing defense to the Elite Eight, dispatching a higher-seeded foe in the process.

Worst-Case Scenario

Oklahoma State finds itself matched against a slow-paced offense that prevents the Cowboys from taking full advantage of their athletic advantages. Mix in a few timely three-balls and some low-percentage shots from Nash, and OK State becomes the most talented team to fall short of the second weekend.

In Their Way

Oklahoma State has the misfortune of drawing Oregon, the Pac-12 tournament champ, in its opening game. The Ducks play ferocious defense, and the Cowboys could find themselves in a bind if either Smart or Brown can't get going early.

VCU

Record: 26-8, 12-4 (Atlantic 10)

Seed: No. 5, South Region

Best-Case Scenario

VCU's havoc defense does its thing: forcing turnovers, demoralizing opponents and leading to easy transition buckets. The Rams hit their threes to complement all the chaos, and Shaka Smart's team steamrolls through to the Elite Eight.

Worst-Case Scenario

Unable to force turnovers against a team with good guard play, VCU's defense looks ordinary. The Rams don't hit their shots from beyond, and the combination of the two leads to a first-weekend letdown.

In Their Path

I've talked about the possible Michigan matchup in a prior slide, but what about North Carolina? The Tar Heels are only a No. 8 seed, but they've been playing well of late. Roy Williams' team has been strong with the ball all year, and UNC's small lineup is well-suited to run with the Rams.

UNLV

Record: 25-9, 10-6 (Mountain West)

Seed: No. 5, East Region

Best-Case Scenario

Freshman sensation Anthony Bennett goes to work on the tournament field, eviscerating UNLV's opposition with his potent blend of strength and outside touch. The Runnin' Rebels defense does the rest, leaning on Khem Birch and Mike Moser to keep opponents out of the paint. After a series of close wins, Dave Rice's team makes the Elite Eight.

Worst-Case Scenario

UNLV's atrocious three-point shooting bogs down an otherwise passable offense, leaving the Runnin' Rebels vulnerable to an opening-round loss.

In Their Way

UNLV faces Cal in the round of 64. These two played earlier this year in Berkeley, with the Runnin' Rebels managing a 76-75 win. Bennett was stellar in that game, but the Golden Bears are much improved since then, and Cal coach Mike Montgomery has a heck of a lot more game tape to consult.

Wisconsin

Record: 23-11, 12-6 (Big Ten)

Seed: No. 5, West Region

Best-Case Scenario

Bo Ryan unleashes freshman standout Sam Dekker, complementing the Big Ten's best defense with a worthy inside-out attack. Wisconsin knocks down its threes, suffocates opponents in transition and mucks its way to the Final Four.

Worst-Case Scenario

The threes don't fall, and Wisconsin runs into an opponent more than willing to play half-court offense at the Badgers' pace. Bo Ryan's team loses a tight one in Round 3.

In Their Path

A Pittsburgh-Wisconsin showdown in the Sweet 16 wouldn't be the world's prettiest basketball, but it would be a fascinating won. Both teams play painfully slow. Both teams prefer to play half-court offense. Pittsburgh won't be bothered in the least by Wisconsin's attempts to milk the clock. In fact, the Panthers would prefer it that way.

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