Big Ten Tournament 2013: Breaking Down Most Exciting Potential Matchups

It was only fitting that there would be some fireworks on Sunday when Indiana captured the outright Big Ten regular-season title over Michigan.

Indiana head coach Tom Crean made it personal, going after Michigan assistant and former Hoosiers coach Jeff Meyer after the game (Meyer played a part in the NCAA sanctions handed down to Indiana during the Kelvin Sampson years). 

The 2013 Big Ten tournament figures to offer more drama (it's like a reality TV show, but much better). The tournament boasts five ranked teams (including four in the top 10), led by No. 3 Indiana.

Here's a look at how I see it going down this year, complete with analysis of the most exciting projected matchups. The complete bracket can be found here.

*All stats via TeamRankings.com

Quarterfinals: Wisconsin vs. Michigan

Yes, Wisconsin beat Michigan in a 65-62 overtime thriller on Feb. 9, but I don't like how the Badgers closed off the season.

Wisconsin got blown out by 15-16 Purdue and Michigan State and only beat 10-20 Penn State by three points.

On the flip side, Michigan has played well in its last three contests, beating Michigan State and Purdue and losing a 72-71 nail-biter to Indiana on Sunday ("You ruined the program! You know what you did!").

I expect Michigan to pull away in this matchup. The Wolverines have held opponents to 40.7 percent shooting in their last three games while forcing turnovers on 22.1 percent of opponents' possessions (Indiana committed 16 turnovers on Sunday).

Also, Wisconsin shot an uncharacteristic 10-of-24 from beyond the arc in the Feb. 9 win over Michigan. I don't see that happening again.

Prediction: Michigan Advances

Semifinals: Indiana vs. Michigan

What's better than Indiana and Michigan playing each other twice? Playing each other three times, of course.

Michigan played a heck of a game against Indiana on Sunday, but Indiana was simply better. The Hoosiers held the Wolverines to 42 percent shooting and outrebounded them, 47-26 (including 19 offensive rebounds).

I don't see that changing anytime soon, either. Indiana ranks 10th in the country in total rebounding rate, including seventh in offensive rebounding rate. Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo have been animals on the glass lately.

The Hoosiers also rank 18th in opponents' field-goal percentage.

Even if Michigan shoots better against Indiana in the Big Ten tournament, the Hoosiers simply kill the Wolverines on the glass. It will be too much for the Wolverines to overcome and they will fall to the Hoosiers for the third time this season in the semifinals.

Prediction: Indiana Advances

Semifinals: Ohio State vs. Michigan State

How can you go against Ohio State here?

Yes, Michigan State beat the Buckeyes on Jan. 19, but the Buckeyes won their most recent matchup on Feb. 24 in the midst of a five-game winning streak to end the regular season. That winning streak included a 67-58 victory over Indiana.

In the 68-60 victory over MSU, Ohio State shot 44 percent against the defensive-minded Spartans. The Spartans also committed 14 turnovers in that game, which is not a fluke. Michigan State is ranked 206th in the country in turnovers per possession this season (the Spartans committed 18 turnovers against Michigan on March 3 to cap off a three-game losing streak).

Michigan State can shoot the basketball and has the rebounding to topple the Buckeyes in the Big Ten tournament. But I can't put too much faith in the Spartans because they simply do not take care of the ball.

Prediction: Ohio State Advances

Championship Game: Indiana vs. Ohio State

Something happened in the 67-58 loss to Ohio State that wasn't supposed to happen to the Hoosiers: they got outrebounded.

Indiana was outrebounded, 34-28, allowing nine offensive rebounds in the process.

In fact, both teams were dead-even in rebounds in Indiana's 81-68 victory over the Buckeyes on Feb. 10—the Hoosiers just happened to shoot 53 percent from the field and 39 percent from downtown while going 22-of-28 from the free-throw line.

This sounds rather simple, but it really comes down to shooting for me.

In Ohio State's 67-58 victory over Indiana, the Buckeyes shot 46 percent from the floor, alarming given that Indiana is ranked 18th in opponents' field-goal percentage. The Hoosiers shot 40 percent, alarming given that they rank seventh in the country in field-goal percentage.

This may shock some, but I'm giving the 2013 Big Ten championship to Ohio State. The Buckeyes are shooting 45.2 percent in their last three games, similar to their season numbers. The Hoosiers, on the other hand, are shooting 40.7 percent in their last three games.

Prediction: Ohio State Wins the 2013 Big Ten Championship