College Basketball: Schmolik 64 Bracket Predictions Update (3/12/13)

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated to reflect Monday night's results. Records are as of March 11, 2013.
* Clinched automatic bid

Regionals are listed in order of the top seed (first listed is overall No. 1 seed)

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis, IN Fri/Sun March 29-31)

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(1) Indiana (26-5) vs. (16) Play In Game B winner 
(8) UCLA (19-13) vs. (9) Villanova (18-12)

Kansas City, MO (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(5) St. Louis (24-6) vs. (12) Play In Game D winner
(4) Marquette (23-7) vs. (13) Akron (23-6)

Austin, TX (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(6) Colorado State (22-7) vs. (11) Wichita State (26-8)
(3) Florida (24-6) vs. (14) South Dakota State (21-9)

Lexington, KY (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(7) Illinois (20-11) vs. (10) St. Mary's (26-6)
(2) Miami (24-6) vs. (15) Harvard (18-9)*

EAST REGIONAL (Washington, DC Thur/Sat March 21-23)

Philadelphia, PA (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(1) Duke (27-4) vs. (16) Norfolk State (21-10)
(8) Memphis (27-4) vs. (9) Missouri (22-9)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(5) Pittsburgh (24-7) vs. (12) Louisiana Tech (25-5)  
(4) Kansas State (24-6) vs. (13) Bucknell (26-5)

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(6) VCU (24-7) vs. (11) Boise State (19-9)
(3) Ohio State (23-7) vs. (14) Florida Gulf Coast (22-10)*   

Lexington, KY (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(7) UNLV (22-8) vs. (10) Oklahoma (20-10)
(2) Louisville (26-5) vs. (15) Vermont (21-10)   

WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles, CA Thur/Sat March 28-30)

Salt Lake City, UT (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(1) Gonzaga (30-2)* vs. (16) Play In Game A winner
(8) Minnesota (20-11) vs. (9) San Diego State (19-9)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(5) Syracuse (23-8) vs. (12) Play In Game C winner
(4) Arizona (24-6) vs. (13) Davidson (25-7) * 

Auburn Hills, MI (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(6) Butler (23-7) vs. (11) Cincinnati (21-10)
(3) Michigan (24-6) vs. (14) Valparaiso (24-7)

Kansas City, MO (Fri/Sun March 21-23)

(7) Creighton (27-7)* vs. (10) Belmont (24-6)*
(2) Kansas (26-5) vs. (15) Long Beach State (16-12)

SOUTH REGIONAL (North Texas, TX Fri/Sun March 29-31)

Philadelphia, PA (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(1) Georgetown (24-5) vs. (16) Western Kentucky (19-15)*
(8) NC State (22-9) vs. (9) California (20-10)

Austin, TX (Fri/Sun March 22-24)

(5) Wisconsin (21-10) vs. (12) LaSalle (21-8)
(4) Oklahoma State (23-7) vs. (13) Stephen F. Austin (22-3)

Salt Lake City, UT (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(6) North Carolina (21-9) vs. (11) Colorado (20-10)
(3) New Mexico (26-5) vs. (14) Montana (21-6)

Auburn Hills, MI (Thur/Sat March 21-23)

(7) Notre Dame (23-8) vs. (10) Temple (23-8)
(2) Michigan State (23-7) vs. (15) Iona (20-13) *

Final Four: Midwest (1) vs. South (4), East (2) vs. West (3)

FIRST FOUR (All games in Dayton, OH)

Automatic Bid Games:

Game A: Tue. March 19: James Madison (20-14)* vs. Liberty (12-20)*

Game B: Wed. March 20: Long Island (19-13) vs. Southern (18-9)

Last Four Teams In: 

Game C: Tue. March 19: Southern Mississippi (21-8) vs. Tennessee (19-11)

Game D: Wed. March 20: Middle Tennessee (28-5) vs. Iowa State (21-10) 

Last teams out: Kentucky (50), Oregon (54), Mississippi (56), Massachusetts (58), Baylor (62), Alabama (63). RPI Data courtesy of CBS Sports.com.

Bids By Conference:

Big East: 8
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
A-10: 5
MWC: 5
ACC: 4
SEC: 3
Pac-12: 4
MVC: 2
WCC: 2
C-USA: 2
Sun Belt: 2
One Bid: 20

Analysis:

Most of my comments were from yesterday's bracket.

The main reason for posting a new bracket was that I forgot to put in a team to replace Middle Tennessee State after they were upset in the Sun Belt Tournament. That forced me to eliminate at a large berth. I decided to take out Kentucky.  

I don't think there was anything bad about their resume. Their RPI (No. 50) paled in comparison to Middle Tennessee and Southern Miss. While they split the regular season with Tennessee, Tennessee's victory without Nerlens Noel was more recent and more convincing.

I would say Southern Mississippi is currently my last team in. All of their RPI numbers beat Kentucky's. Southern Miss has no top 25 or even top 50 wins and has a horrible loss to Marshall (RPI No. 203). I will probably change my mind several times this week between the two. If Southern Miss doesn't make the final of the Conference USA Tournament, I think they are done.

Gonzaga's win last night over St. Mary's strongly improves their chances of being a No. 1 seed. I think the worst case scenario would be either Georgetown or Louisville winning the Big East Tournament and either Miami winning the ACC Tournament, beating Duke, or Michigan State or Michigan winning the Big Ten Tournament.

I think Indiana and Duke have strong enough resumes that they will be able to hang on to No. 1 seeds unless they suffer horrible losses (Indiana's first game will be against either Illinois or Minnesota, two teams expected to make the NCAA Tournament).

I don't think St. Mary's is in any danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. Their only conference losses were to Gonzaga, and they have a win over MVC Tournament champion Creighton. 

Finally, James Madison won the CAA, but the significant story, I feel, is that the CAA Tournament is moving to Baltimore after being in Richmond, Virginia from 1990 to 2013.

Drexel (from Philadelphia) joined the CAA in 2001, along with Hofstra (New York area) and Delaware. The move was supposed to expand the CAA footprint further to the Northeast (Northeastern, from Boston, joined in 2005). Yet the CAA Tournament had stayed in Richmond.

The last time a non Virginia school won the CAA championship in men's basketball was 2006 (UNC Wilmington). In 2012, Drexel won the CAA regular season championship but had to play VCU in the title game in Richmond (VCU is in Richmond and it was a virtual home game for the Rams).

This year, Northeastern was the top seed, but a Virginia school (James Madison) won it again. They defeated two higher seeded non Virginia schools in the semifinals and championship game. I imagine very few Northeastern fans would have come down from Boston to see the championship, especially on a Monday night.

So hopefully, next year, teams outside of Virginia have a chance to win the tournament instead of the Virginia monopoly. At least two schools which won seven of the last 10 tournaments (Virginia Commonwealth and Old Dominion) either left or will leave before next season.