2013 March Madness Bubble Watch: Odds on Fringe Teams Heading into Home Stretch

Selection Sunday is less than a week away, but the outlook of the potential NCAA tournament field is hardly more clear than it was even a month ago. 

Parity has reigned supreme in the college hoops world this season, and as a result, the bubble is still a jumbled mess. Plenty of impressive teams have already locked up their spot in the Big Dance, but there are still a whole heap of squads whose hopes rely on the upcoming conference tournaments.

Let's take a look at where every team stands before one final shot at impressing the almighty, powerful selection committee. 

Automatic Bids

Atlantic Coast: Miami

America East: Albany

Atlantic 10: Saint Louis

Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12: Kansas

Big East: Louisville

Big Sky: Montana

Big South: Liberty

Big Ten: Ohio State

Big West: Pacific

CAA: James Madison

Conference USA: Memphis

Horizon: Valparaiso

Ivy League: Harvard

MAAC: Iona

MAC: Akron

MEAC: North Carolina AT&T

Missouri Valley: Creighton

Mountain West: New Mexico

Northeast: LIU-Brooklyn

Ohio Valley: Belmont

Pac-12: Oregon

Patriot: Bucknell

SEC: Ole Miss

Southern: Davidson

Southland: Northwestern State

Summit League: South Dakota State

Sun Belt: Western Kentucky

SWAC: Southern

WAC: New Mexico State

West Coast: Gonzaga

Atlantic 10

Safely In

Butler Bulldogs

Saint Louis Billikens 

VCU Rams

Bubble

Charlotte 49ers

The 49ers were upended by St. Louis, and now stand no chance to crack the tournament field. 

La Salle Explorers

La Salle couldn't handle Brad Stevens and Butler in the quarterfinals, and now it will be a very agonizing few days for the Explorers.

They are still likely "in" right now, but being right on the edge with zero games left to play won't be fun. 

Massachusetts Minutemen

Chaz Williams and UMass certainly made things interesting. The Minutemen knocked off Temple on Friday night, but came up just short against VCU on Saturday afternoon. 

Derek Kellogg's squad is now likely stuck on the wrong side of the bubble, and fringe squads around the nation can breathe a small sigh of relief as the potential bid thief is eliminated. 

Temple Owls

The Owls boast an RPI of 38, a SOS of 65 and wins over Syracuse, Saint Louis, VCU, La Salle and Villanova.

They slipped up against UMass, but should still be safe with a majority of the bubble struggling. 

Xavier Musketeers

Xavier suffered a major letdown in the first round against Saint Joseph's. Now, despite a bunch of very solid wins, the Musketeers are on the wrong side of the bubble. 

The Rest (alphabetical order)

Dayton Flyers

Duquesne Dukes

Fordham Rams

George Washington Colonials

Rhode Island Rams

Richmond Spiders

Saint Bonaventure Bonnies

Saint Joseph's Hawks

ACC

Safely In

Duke Blue Devils

Miami Hurricanes

North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina State Wolfpack

Bubble

Maryland Terrapins

The Terrapins couldn't quick knock off North Carolina in the ACC semis, and despite two impressive wins over Duke, they are still believed to be on the outside looking in. 

Virginia Cavaliers

Woops. Virginia got blasted by NC State in the quarterfinals, and Tony Bennett's squad is far from safe.

With zero games left to play, the Cavaliers sit at the very edge of the bubble. Some projections have them in the "last four in" category and some have them in the "last four out." They have a slew of good wins and just as many bad losses, and this one will simply come down to the preference of the committee. An argument can be made either way. 

The Rest (alphabetical order)

Boston College Eagles

Clemson Tigers

Florida State Seminoles

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Virginia Tech Hokies

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Big 12

Safely In

Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas State Wildcats

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Bubble

Baylor Bears

As close as the quarterfinals game against Oklahoma State was, Baylor was unable to pull out a win. This will make things interesting on Selection Sunday.

The Bears have a couple of big wins this season, but the 18-14 record might be all the selection committee needs to leave them out of the Big Dance. 

Iowa State Cyclones

The Cyclones weren't able to lock things up against Kansas on Friday night, but they are still squarely on the right side of the bubble.

Oklahoma Sooners

That's not how you end a season, Oklahoma. After bowing out against Iowa State, the Sooners are now just 6-6 in their last 12, and that includes losses against Texas and TCU. 

The computer numbers (RPI 31, SOS 17) are still sparkling, but Oklahoma now has a long few days ahead. 

The Rest (alphabetical order)

West Virginia Mountaineers 

Texas Longhorns

TCU Horned Frogs

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Big East

Safely In

Georgetown Hoyas

Louisville Cardinals

Marquette Golden Eagles

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Pittsburgh Panthers

Syracuse Orange

 

Bubble 

Cincinnati Bearcats

Ending the regular season with a 3-6 record is not a great recipe for an at-large bid, but Cincinnati took care of business in the Big East tournament with a first-round win over Providence. 

Despite an ugly loss to Georgetown in the quarters, they should feel pretty comfortable at this point regardless.

 

Villanova Wildcats

The Wildcats knocked off St. John's to advance to the quarterfinals, and unless the selection committee goes bonkers, Jay Wright's squad is now simply playing for a better seed. 

 

The Rest (alphabetical order)

DePaul Blue Demons

Providence Friars

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Saint John's Red Storm

Seton Hall Pirates

South Florida Bulls

*Connecticut is ineligible for postseason play. 

Big Ten

Safely In

Illinois Fighting Illini

Indiana Hoosiers

Michigan Wolverines

Michigan State Spartans

Ohio State Buckeyes

Wisconsin Badgers 

 

Bubble

Iowa Hawkeyes

The Hawkeyes' bubble was burst when they came up just short against Michigan State on Friday night. 

 

Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Golden Gophers likely did enough during the first half of the season to feel comfortable, but losing to Illinois was an unfortunately appropriate way to complete an ugly final stretch. 

If a few teams steal some bids in the coming days, Minnesota could be looking at a first-round play-in game. 

 

The Rest (alphabetical order)

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Northwestern Wildcats

Penn State Nittany Lions

Purdue Boilermakers

Mountain West

Safely In

Colorado State Rams

New Mexico Lobos

UNLV Rebels

Bubble

Boise State Broncos

The Broncos are going to have a nervous few days after falling to San Diego State in Wednesday's nightcap, but barring a bunch of bids being hijacked, they are still safe. 

Not only have they won at Creighton, but they also boast impressive victories over Colorado State (RPI 15), UNLV (21) and San Diego. Two ugly losses against Utah and Nevada shouldn't negate those accomplishments, especially when you consider the (lack of) strength of the bubble. 

San Diego State Aztecs

It wasn't pretty, but the Aztecs got the win they needed against BSU. Steve Fisher's boys are in. Book it.

The Rest (alphabetical order)

Air Force Falcons

Fresno State Bulldogs

Nevada Wolf Pack

Wyoming Cowboys

Pac-12

Safely In

Arizona Wildcats

California Golden Bears

Oregon Ducks

UCLA Bruins

Colorado Buffaloes

Bubble

Arizona State Sun Devils

The Sun Devils coughed up a 15-point lead against UCLA and are now squarely on the wrong side of the bubble. 

The Rest (alphabetical order)

Oregon State Beavers

Stanford Cardinal

USC Trojans

Utah Utes

Washington Huskies

Washington State Cougars

SEC

Safely In

Florida Gators

Missouri Tigers

Bubble

Alabama Crimson Tide

'Bama did well to knock off Tennessee by 10 points in the quarterfinals, but they lost to Florida and now sit squarely on the bubble. 

This one could come down to whether any bids or stolen in the next 24 hours, but don't expect the Tide to crack the field. 

Kentucky Wildcats

The Wildcats entered the day in the Field of 68, but a 16-point loss to Vanderbilt all but destroyed their at-large hopes. 

The Wildcats will now enter Selection Sunday with zero wins and four very ugly losses away from home and sans Nerlens Noel.

Tennessee Volunteers

The Volunteers' recent scorching play came to a screeching halt on Friday in a loss to Alabama on Friday. 

Tennessee entered the game in better position than the Tide, but the Vols will now have to sweat out the next few days on the very edge of the bubble. 

The Rest (alphabetical order)

Arkansas Razorbacks

Auburn Tigers

Georgia Bulldogs

LSU Tigers

Mississippi State Bulldogs

South Carolina Gamecocks

Texas A&M Aggies

Vanderbilt Commodores

The Rest

Safely In

Memphis Tigers

Bubble

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

After three losses to end the season and a loss to UTSA in the quarterfinals of the WAC tournament, it is hard to imagine Louisiana Tech getting an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. 

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

The Blue Raiders slipped up and were eliminated from the Sun Belt tournament by Florida International. All hope isn't lost, though, as they have 28 wins and a solid RPI of 32. 

A lack of quality wins, however, could be difficult to overcome. 

St. Mary's Gaels

Many believe the Gaels to be in but after getting scorched by Gonzaga in the WCC championship, they have some nervous waiting to do. 

They have 27 wins and an RPI of 35, but besides a win over Creighton and a sweep of BYU, nothing really sticks out on their resume. 

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

The Golden Eagles came close, but fell to Memphis in double overtime to miss out on the automatic bid. They now have to sweat to out until Selection Sunday, and it's unlikely their prayers are answered. 

Wichita State Shockers

As long as there aren't a lot of bids stolen in the next week, Wichita State should be fine, even after losing to Creighton in the Missouri Valley title game.