Why North Carolina Will Win Tonight's NCAA Championship

Yes, this is Tom Izzo's fourth Final Four and second championship appearance since 2000. And yes, the game is being played in Michigan State's backyard.

They have the edge when it comes to the home crowd, possibly slightly when it comes to big-game coaching experience, and maybe even when it comes to overall athleticism.

But that's not going to be enough. No, as grand as a Michigan newspaper headline reading "We Did It!" or "We Are Spartans!" would look, it simply won't be happening.

You see, the truth is, as lovely and heart-warming as Michigan State's proposed ending could and would be, North Carolina's is a little juicier.

They've got the pedigree and the teary-eyed emotional coach attempting to win his second title with North Carolina (which would be his second overall, as well).

The Tarheels have the college great (but perhaps not-so-NBA-elite) forward Tyler Hansbrough. Plus, there's the outside hot hands in Danny Green and Wayne Ellington, the smart game-managing experience of back-up point guard Bobby Frasor, and of course, the fearless "toe-stubbing" Ty Lawson.

They have all the tools, moxie, and reasons to pull off this run.

They're far from home. It's taken Tyler Hansbrough and his teammates four seasons to get here. They've lived in the shadows of Sean May and Raymond Felton, yet have still climbed the ranks and pushed their way to back-to-back Final Four appearances.

I'm sure a lot of analysts will crunch the numbers, feed you the matchups, and go over the stats leading up to the big game for hours, but not me. That'd be a big waste of time in my eyes.

The fact is, it takes only one look at the desperation and determination in Hansbrough's eyes to know that he won't be denied.

It only takes a small amount of footage to see Ty Lawson won't be slowed by his toe, an opposing defense, or the constant debate about whether his NBA stock is rising or falling.

And despite the talk that we could see a repeat of UNC's loss to Kansas last year (in which the Tar Heels' shots wouldn't drop until after halftime) or possibly what happened to Oklahoma (they were 0-for-15 on threes until six minutes were left in the game), my confidence in this team goes unwavered.

Countless analysts and experts backed the Big East, saying teams like Connecticut and Louisville were too strong and athletic for North Carolina. They said the Heels were a good team, but not quite a great one.

Some have made the argument that the trip so far for North Carolina has been too easy, that Gonzaga didn't bring their "A" game, that no one outside of Blake Griffin showed up in the contest against Oklahoma.

They'd be right, in a certain sense.

You are correct, America. Blake Griffin did play better Tyler Hansbrough. The Zags' Jannero Pargo did hold his own against Ty Lawson, and yes, Michigan State (who beat both Louisville and UConn) is more of a challenge that we can begin to dream.

But the man they call "Psycho T" isn't scared.

Whether he has to attempt ten more dunks from "never gonna happen" range tonight or not, he's going to prove to us all that nothing matters more than wins, especially when you're talking about the last NCAA men's basketball game of the season.

It doesn't matter who scores the most individual points, who grabs the most rebounds, or even who hits the game-winning shot. The game is not about who is going to the NBA or who will be coming back next season.

This game is about home-court and redemption. This is about odds and expectations.

This game is about Michigan State and North Carolina. And whether Magic Johnson likes it or not, his appearance in the stands isn't going to change a damn thing.

Tonight is Tyler Hansbrough's night. Believe that.