Kentucky Basketball: Predicting NBA Success Rate for Wildcats

Since John Calipari became head coach of the Kentucky basketball program, it has been a feeding program for the NBA.

With the likes of John Wall, Eric Bledsoe, DeMarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrest, Brandon Knight and more playing professionally, it's time to look at the success rate of the current group of players in Lexington.

This doesn't necessarily mean each of Kentucky's underclassmen will leave the Bluegrass State for the NBA Draft after this season, but it will take a look at predictions of when they go, where they go and what NBA player they will most likely resemble. 

If you disagree with any of the predictions, let it be known in the comment section. 

Willie Cauley-Stein

Draft Express' Prediction: 15th pick in the 2014 draft

NBA player most currently resembles: JaVale McGee

All-Star Predictions: None

NBA Awards Predictions: None

Projected Role in the NBA: Backup center. Good guy to have in locker room

Projected years in the NBA: Eight

Breakdown: Willie Cauley-Stein would most likely be leaving for the 2013 draft if it wasn't for an injury to his knee that had sidelined him during this season. 

He will be a high-energy player, but a work in progress. Cauley-Stein will be a lot like McGee for his ability to block shots and rebound at a high rate. McGee is currently averaging 4.8 rebounds per game and 1.8 blocks per game, something Cauley-Stein could very well do.

Come draft time there could be a lot of comparisons to former Kentucky player Daniel Orton, but with a better skill set and head on his shoulders, expect Cauley-Stein to be a fixture in the NBA for many years. 

Ryan Harrow

Draft Express' Prediction: 40th pick in the 2014 draft

NBA player most currently resembles: Aaron Brooks

All-Star Predictions: None

NBA Awards Predictions: None

Projected Role in the NBA: Backup point guard. Plays few minutes, but has breakout games due to injury to the starter.

Projected years in the NBA: Nine

Breakdown: Ryan Harrow will be the first point guard under John Calipari since Darius Washington in 2004-05 to not leave after his first season running the team. 

While he has had an up and down season so far in Lexington, Harrow does not turn the ball over and has the speed to compete in the NBA. He's one of the fastest point guards in the country and gets the ball into transition almost better than anyone this year in the college game.

Despite his lack of constantly hitting the deep ball, he has shown the ability to hit a shot when needed as well as finish at the rim. Another year playing for Calipari will only help Harrow's ability to understand what is needed of him at the NBA level.

I expect him to be on a NBA roster for years to come. 

Kyle Wiltjer

Draft Express' Prediction: Not projected to be drafted in next two years

NBA player most currently resembles: Steve Novak

All-Star Predictions: None

NBA Awards Predictions: (1) Three Point Contest Win

Projected Role in the NBA: Backup forward. Spot-up shooter. 

Projected years in the NBA: 11

Breakdown: Kyle Wiltjer should be the happiest player in the world with the NBA's latest evolution of playing small ball and stretching the floor. He also has Steve Novak to thank for his future in the NBA. 

With Wiltjer's ability to shoot almost anywhere inside the midcourt line, he will have a spot at the professional level. Since the NBA is starting to play power forwards who are more likely to play at the top of the key to the perimeter—much like Dirk Nowitzki, Novak and Chris Bosh—players like Wiltjer are a hot commodity.

Wiltjer will likely stay all four seasons at Kentucky, but after that expect to see him on an NBA roster for multiple years due to his style of play and ability to avoid injury.  

Archie Goodwin

Draft Express' Prediction: 13th pick in the 2013 draft

NBA player most currently resembles: Eric Bledsoe

All-Star Predictions: None

NBA Awards Predictions: (2) Dunk Contest wins

Projected Role in the NBA: First guard off the bench. Highlight-reel type player

Projected years in the NBA: 10

Breakdown: Despite his incredibly inconsistent play, Archie Goodwin will be just fine in the NBA. 

With his extreme athletic ability, including some Top 10 dunks on SportsCenter this year, he has the ability to play with anyone in the NBA right now. The best thing going for Goodwin might be the fact he is confident enough in his game, no matter how good or bad it is.

Standing at 6'5", Goodwin has the size to play the 2-guard spot in the NBA as well and won't be forced to run the show. Despite a lack of outside shooting talent, there are very few people in college basketball this year who are better at getting to the rim or in the lane than Goodwin is.

He has an explosive first step much like former Wildcat Eric Bledsoe and is built much like him as well. With Chris Paul's recent injury keeping him out of the lineup for the Los Angeles Clippers, we have seen what Bledsoe has been able to do at the NBA level.

There's no reason to think Goodwin won't have a very similar career path. The best thing that could happen to him would be to get drafted by a team with a strong veteran experience, much like Paul is for Bledsoe. 

Alex Poythress

Draft Express' Prediction: 12th pick in the 2013 draft

NBA player most currently resembles: Rudy Gay

All-Star Predictions: One

NBA Awards Predictions: Second Team All-Rookie Team

Projected Role in the NBA: Sixth man for first three years before becoming a starter.

Projected years in the NBA: 13

Breakdown: Much like Archie Goodwin, Poythress' inconsistent play has been a hot topic in Kentucky this season. However, at 6'7", 240 pounds, he has a body made to be a star in the NBA.

With his ability to play both inside and outside at the small forward position, he is a noted commodity among NBA General Managers heading into this year's draft. He is currently projected to be drafted to the Mavericks by Draft Express.

This would be a prime destination for Poythress as he can learn from Nowitzki how to play both inside and out in the NBA.

After having a successful run under his rookie concert, I fully expect a team to splurge on Poythress once he shows his versatility in the pros. If Rudy Gay—someone Poythress is built a lot alike, and a better outside shooter than—can get a max contract, there's no reason to think Poythress won't be paid handsomely. 

Nerlens Noel

Draft Express' Prediction: Second pick in the 2013 draft

NBA player most currently resembles: Tyson Chandler

All-Star Predictions: Three

NBA Awards Predictions: (6) First Team All-NBA Defensive Team, (2) Defensive Player of the Year, First Team All-Rookie and (2) All-NBA Second Team

Projected Role in the NBA: Defensive anchor

Projected years in the NBA: 14

Breakdown: Nerlens Noel may get compared to Anthony Davis while he's at Kentucky, but when it comes to the next level, just look at Tyson Chandler of the New York Knicks. 

Noel is not the best offensive player on Kentucky and it's not close. But, despite that, Draft Express projects he'll be drafted second overall this year to the Washington Wizards. He is projected to go there because he plays defense better than anyone in college basketball and might be the best shot blocker in the world currently. 

On top of that, Noel is a top-notch rebounder; he currently averages 9.5 rebounds per game to go with over four blocks per game. As Chandler has proved, in the NBA you don't have to do much offensively to be regarded as a top player. 

Expect Noel to be required to do just that when it's his turn in the pros. He will score on lob plays and put back dunks, but he will be known as one of the best defenders in the league the moment he steps on the floor. 

He will be a staple for years to come in the NBA thanks solely to his defense and hustle.