Why the Raiders Will Select a Franchise Offensive Tackle

Having a solid left tackle protecting your quarterback’s blind side is a high priority for most teams in the NFL. With the 2009 NFL draft fast approaching, many in the Raider Nation are wondering if the silver and black will select one of the premier offensive tackles with the seventh selection in the draft.

But is it a good idea to select an offensive tackle in this position, and what are the chances this player will be a success? To analyze this, the following questions should be asked.

• Who are the potential franchise tackles in the upcoming draft?
• Do the Oakland Raiders have a shot at selecting one with the seventh selection?
• How successful have tackles selected in the first round been recently?
• When have perennial all Pro Bowl tackles been selected?

Potential franchise tackles

It is possible that six offensive tackles will be first round selections. These include Jason Smith, Baylor; Eugene Monroe, Virginia; Michael Oher, Ole Miss; Andre Smith, Alabama; Eben Britton, Arizona; and William Beatty, Connecticut.

It is likely that Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe will already be off the board when the Raiders first selection comes up. However, if a team such as the Broncos or Eagles trades up ahead of the Raiders to select a QB, and some of the teams drafting ahead of the Raiders decide to go with the top wide receivers in the draft, Smith or Monroe might still be available.

But the real question is whether the Raiders should select an offensive tackle if a franchise type player is available at the seventh selection. Consider the following. 

Last year’s first round tackles were a success story

Last year eight offensive tackles were selected in the first round of the draft. The success of these players was phenomenal. All eight are currently shown as starters on their team rosters, five at left tackle and three at right tackle. All of these teams were successful in establishing a firm foundation for their offenses with these picks. For a related story see A Firm Foundation for the Oakland Raiders.

Top 10 first round picks

How successful have offensive tackles been who were selected in the top ten picks of the first round? Since the 1999 draft, eleven offensive tackles were selected in these positions. Ten of these players are currently starters, with Robert Gallery and Leonard Davis starting at guard and the other eight starting at tackle.

The only first round tackle drafted in the top 10 that was not successful was Mike Williams, the 360-pounder the Buffalo Bills drafted to anchor their massive line in 2002. Williams was eventually cut in 2006. (Note: This is not the 360-pound “wide” receiver Mike Williams that Lane Kiffen signed to “round out” our receiving corps last year.)

Perennial Pro Bowl tackles

When were recent perennial Pro Bowl tackles selected in the draft? If one defines  “perennial Pro Bowlers” as players who played in three or more Pro Bowls since 2004, these include the following players, drafted in the rounds indicated.

Walter Jones, Seattle                   1997,   Round 1,    6^th overall

Chris Samuels, Washington           2000,  Round 1,    3^rd overall

Flozell Adams, Dallas                   1998,   Round 2,   38^th overall

Jonathan Ogden, Baltimore           1996,   Round 1,     4^th overall

Willie Anderson, Cincinnati           1996,   Round 1,   10^th overall

Orlando Pace, St. Louis                1997,   Round 1,     1^st overall

Willie Roaf, Kansas City               1993,   Round 1,    8^th overall

Notice how many of these tackles were selected in the top-ten picks of the draft?

Conclusion

I am a believer in analyzing statistics, and then playing the odds. In this case the numbers tell me:

• All eight rookie offensive tackles selected in the first round last year are now starters
• Ten of 11 tackles selected in the top 10 picks in the draft in the past ten years are still starters, and
• Six of the seven recent perennial Pro Bowl tackles were selected in the top 10 picks in the draft.

Based on these statistics, it appears prudent for the Raiders to select an offensive tackle with their first pick. With our improving team, we may not get a chance to select this high in the draft in the foreseeable future.

With Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe probably already gone at the seventh selection, the Raiders should consider taking Michael Oher or Andre Smith (gasp!). Michael Oher had a great pro day workout, and has been described as athletic, quick, strong, durable and a great pass and run blocker who needs help with his technique at the NFL level.

Andre Smith has some issues related to judgment, maturity, and desire, but on the plus side he was the Outland trophy winner, a three year starter at Alabama, and a powerful run blocker with good awareness. 

When it comes to assessing offensive line talent, Tom Cable knows better than any of us if one of these players has what it takes to be a success in the NFL, and is worthy of the Raiders’ top pick. If he selects an offensive tackle with the seventh selection, there will be cheering at our house.

Acknowledgement

Phillip Fitch commented on my article on top-tier receivers, as follows, “How many top tier linemen can be found later in the draft should be the question? Zero. What's the point of having a top tier WR if you can't protect the QB. There is no point.”

This started me researching this topic. Thanks for the idea, Phillip.