WhatIfSports.com's 2009 NCAA Tournament Simulation: Final Four

So far, so (pretty) good for the WhatIfSports.com Bracket Preview computer, which has simulated the NCAA Tournament 10,000 times. Its bracket accurately predicted six of the Elite Eight teams (just missed Missouri and Michigan State) and two of Final Four teams (UConn and UNC), giving it a rank in the 84th percentile in FOXSports.com's Bracket Challenge game.

But more importantly, both of the computer's championship game participants (UConn and UNC), plus its champion (UNC) remain alive in the tourney, which gives Bracket Preview a good chance to finish in the 90th percentile or above for the third straight season (though it won't match its 99.85th percentile from last season).

So who does the computer like the rest of the way?

Well, not much has changed from the original projections. WhatIfSports.com again used its acclaimed college basketball simulation technology to forecast the future by simulating just the Final Four of the 2008 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament 10,000 times, and North Carolina is still the prohibitive favorite to first knock off Villanova and then defeat UConn to claim this year’s championship.

This week, not only do we have results of the simulations at BracketPreview.com, but we also have boxscores, play-by-play, game recaps, and stats from each of the three simulated games. A brief synopsis of the results is below, but we strongly encourage readers to visit BracketPreview.com to see the most in-depth Final Four breakdown around.

 

North Carolina, which has been the favorite all along, has the highest chance of winning the tournament, calculated at 50.6 percent. Just more than half of the 10,000 simulations of the Final Four concluded with the Tar Heels winning.

At a clip of 78.4 percent, UNC advances past the surprising Villanova Wildcats; the average score was calculated to be 89-80. Villanova is athletic enough to run with North Carolina, but cannot match the Tar Heels depth inside and seems to run into foul trouble in each trial.

While Reggie Redding and Scottie Reynolds are good defenders, Ty Lawson has another gear that no one else in the country can reach. Despite the fact that they come from the Big East, the Wildcats actually play a style more reminiscent of a team like Duke out of the ACC. And while Villanova may have defeated Duke easily in the Sweet 16, UNC is too familiar with their schemes and matches up well.

 

In the other national semifinal, UConn out-muscles and out-lasts the "home team" Michigan State Spartans to win 76.4 percent of the time and by an average score of 76-70. Seems the Huskies manage to get MSU out of their comfort zone by pushing the pace.

These two teams are actually fairly similar statistically and in their mentalities, but UConn is just slightly more talented at each position. Goran Suton may enter this game as one of the hottest players in the tournament, but he now faces Hasheem Thabeet. Whether Suton tries to pull Thabeet away from the basket or go at him down low, he will likely not succeed on Saturday as he did in the tournament thus far.

UConn's inside presence on defense could force Spartans Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen to carry the offense from the outside, but neither player shoots better than 40 percent from the field. Michigan State is probably one good outside threat away from making this a game.

 

In the championship game, North Carolina comes out on top by a razor-thin average score of 83-82. Both UNC and UConn are experienced and have McDonald's All-Americans at each position, but the Tar Heels ultimately win more often than not because they have the best player on the floor in Ty Lawson.

UConn may be able to neutralize Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington and/or Danny Green, but not Lawson. When healthy, Lawson is an unstoppable force that can carry his team to victory.

After the Tar Heels, UConn is next with a 36.9% championship chance. The Huskies, who were the winners in 36.9 percent of simulations, are followed by Villanova at eight percent and then Michigan State (4.5 percent).

The average score in a Huskies vs. Wildcat championship is 75-70 in UConn's favor. UNC vs. Michigan State sees UNC winning 88-77, and Villanova would win it all over MSU, 76-73.

 

Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Product Manager for WhatIfSports.com. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!