Roger Federer's Last Lap: Is the King Dead?

I am sure I will take a lot of flack for this article from Federer fans all over. However, it is an article that needs to be written, and an article that I hope is read in its entirety.

Roger Federer is not finished. Let me repeat that again: Roger Federer is not finished.

However, Roger Federer is nearing the finish line. Barring a trip to the fountain of youth, Federer will never ascend to the top again or be considered the undisputed greatest player in the world again.

Federer’s fate has nothing to do with the new wave of players or even Rafael Nadal. It has nothing to do with mononucleosis or epic losses at Wimbledon.

It has to do with Roger Federer himself.

Roger’s mantle looks something like a jewelry store. It has 13 Slam trophies, 14 Masters trophies to go along with 30 others, and a handful of junior level trophies. 

Roger is 27 years old, nearly 28, akin to a tennis senior citizen. While not the oldest, Federer has probably played more matches than almost anyone active on the tour.

I point this out for two reasons:

First, Federer has to be one of the most motivated players on the planet; otherwise he would have fallen off the top spot long ago. I know the argument will be that he is just that talented, but I don’t buy that. I am willing to bet that the top 10 players in the world are just as talented as Federer.

What separates Federer from the rest—and what now separates Rafael Nadal from the rest—is all mental.

It is the belief that the player across the court may be good enough to beat you, but in the back of your head, you know you will make the shots that count and that ultimately dictate the match.

Federer is dealing with mental issues; the shots are still there, but the head no longer dictates the match likes the days of old. Evidenced by his final-set meltdowns against Andy Murray and Nadal, these matches are no longer fun for Federer.

They are blows to his ego; his perception is that he is superior to all.

And trust me, Federer believes this. You do not rule the world as King Federer did for so long without this belief.

Second, Federer is like the family Volvo: dependable, durable, but high in mileage. Yes, he has had longevity on his side to go along with his wealth of mental fortitude, but the guy is 27. He has been doing this since he was 5 years old. Even the family Volvo starts to break down after years of service.

We have seen his issues with mononucleosis and his back. These have not caused his downfall, but they weigh on him, especially when a young 20-something is staring at him from across the court.

You may dismiss this hypothesis, but it takes a lot for someone who's won 57 tour-level tournaments to get hyped up for a first-round match or a match against someone who he's beaten 16 times in a row.

Federer will never hold the No. 1 ranking for an extended period of time again. He knows this.

Think about the hit his ranking points will take by not playing at Monte Carlo. He knows this; he is no longer occupied with getting the top spot back.

His sole focus now lies in winning the Slams.

This is a good thing; Federer will win a 14th, and maybe even a 15th Slam.

His decision to drop out of Monte Carlo is not a concession to Nadal; it is a concession to his ego. If he goes into the French Open with two losses against Nadal on clay, mentally, he wil not be able to deal with the King of Clay starring at him from the other side.

By skipping out on Monte Carlo, a Nadal favorite, I believe Federer is banking on the fact that Nadal will follow suit and take an early exit from Rome to rest.

I don’t believe there is any possibility, short of dropping out or losing early, of avoiding him at Madrid. Nadal will be in his home country, on his favorite surface, and I see this tournament becoming a staple in Nadal’s calendar.

However, with Hamburg—famous for its “fast” clay courts—now off the Masters tournament schedule, Madrid now becomes the favorite clay court for Federer.

Due to its elevation and the way it plays, Madrid will seem a neutral site for a showdown on clay. Lest we forget, Federer has beaten Nadal on the quicker clay courts.

I believe Federer is hoping to meet Rafa on clay only once before the French. This does a lot for Roger mentality, entering the only Slam he has not hoisted the trophy.

So is the King dead?

No.

But he is on his final lap.