NHL: "Objects in Mirror Are Closer Than They Appear"

The Edmonton Oilers are this year's Colorado Avalanche.      

Of course, I'm referring to last year's stretch run, where the Avs went 15-2-2 to close out the season and became the team with the highest point total ever to not make the playoffs.

Now, I don't think the magic number will be as high this year, but I know we'll have a couple disappointed teams on the outside looking in when it's all said and done.

Edmonton will not make the playoffs.

That's why I say they're this year's Avalanche. They have too many injuries, and the guys getting it done right now can't stay hot forever.

Going 12-3 is a respectable run, but it just isn't in the cards for these guys.

If your stars are making the run possible, like San Jose, it can be sustained. These guys have experience.

But Edmonton's run is too fragile to see the season out. I'm not saying they will lose the rest of their games. But anything other than five wins puts them out for sure. And I think five wins is too much.

I hesitate to say whether Nashville will make it. They have games against the Jackets, Wings, Blues (twice), and Hawks.

They can theoretically win four out of those five games, giving them eight points, and 92 total. I don't think that's enough to get in.

I think it's going to take at least 93. And those four wins is being generous. The Columbus Blue Jackets will come out hard following a 3-0 shutout tonight, and the Hawks are always dangerous.

So barring a spectacular five games by the Preds, expect to see four teams from the Northwest Division in the playoff brackets.

That, by the way, has never happened. Just goes to show the difficulty of the division.

As far as the rest of the seedings go, the Avalanche can beat the Canucks tomorrow night, for 88 pts.

Then I think they can at least win two out of four remaining games, for 92 points. Now, the reason I say that this 92 points will make it in is because the Avs have a pretty high win total.

They get more points from wins than lots of OT losses, so in the tiebreaker, I say the Avalanche win total prevails.

Ideally, they win the last five games, giving them 96 points, good for second in the division, possibly even first if there is a little magic. And that is ideal.

If I'm the Avalanche, I want the third or sixth seed, so I can play another Northwest division team in the first round. Otherwise, the Avs need to fall into the eighth seed.

The seventh seed is bad.

Whoever plays the Sharks in the first round, loses. And loses bad. That needs to be avoided.

As far as eighth seed goes, I honestly think Colorado has a legitimate shot at beating Detroit. If that's what happens, the Avs go in there with playoff intensity, and the Red Wings flop, just like recent years.

That, along with the defensive pickups at the deadline and a (hopefully healthy) Peter Forsberg provides for a really good series.

I'm almost rooting for this one to happen... What would the pickups of Forsberg and Foote mean if the Avs didn't play the Wings?

So that's my take. Whatever unfolds, it's bound to be good.

And all you eastern conference readers, root for the Capitals. God only knows what Ovechkin would do in the Playoffs. How about an Ovechkin vs. Crosby playoff series?? Yeah, I know.

Hope our guys are prepared for tomorrow. Vancouver gave up a bad loss tonight, and I was hoping they'd win. Good thing we're at Pepsi Center.