MLB Over/Under: Kosuke Fukudome At-Bats in 2009

On Thursday, Kosuke Fukudome arrived at the Chicago Cubs' Spring Training facility in Arizona. Unlike his arrival 13 months ago, there wasn’t any fanfare this time.

How the circumstances for Fukudome have changed. Just a year ago, the media hype surrounding the first Japanese-born player to play in front of the ivy at Wrigley Field consumed the Cubs' camp. With headbands, t-shirts (some less racially sensitive than others), and jerseys flying off the racks, he was the hottest thing to hit Wrigleyville since Old Style.

And then, on Opening Day in the rain against Milwaukee, he hit a game-tying home run in the bottom of the ninth. The frenzy was at a fever pitch.

But then May came. And June. And July. And with each passing month, Fukudome’s batting average fell by nearly 20 to 30 points. By August, Fukudome had found himself in the doghouse, on the bench, and only on the field as a defensive replacement or pinch-runner.

One would have hoped that the opportunity to play in this year’s World Baseball Classic for his home team, the Japanese national squad, would have helped rejuvenate his swing and approach at the plate. But it didn’t; Fukudome batted just .200 in the WBC.

In fact, in the final game of this spring’s WBC, Fukudome watched from the same place he was at the end of the Cubs' season last year, the bench. It would appear that the one-time star that was Fukudome has dimmed to the point that even his home nation doesn’t need him in crucial situations.

Now comes the 2009 season with the Cubs. Fukudome is now looking up the depth chart at yet another attempt of Cubs' GM Jim Hendry to find a left-handed batting right fielder, this time Milton Bradley. Fukudome is slotted, in fact, to platoon in center field with Reed Johnson, where the Cubs also have Bradley and Joey Gathright as options.

So, what should we expect from Fukudome this year?

He has been quoted recently in regards to his performance last year as saying it was stupidity that kept him in a funk. The question now for Fukudome, Cubs' fans, and the roster is whether or not manager Lou Piniella is going to give him time to get smart.

There are a couple factors into Fukudome’s at-bats projection for 2009. The first, and biggest, is obviously whether or not he gets out of the gate well. Piniella has historically played the hot hand, including starting Ryan Dempster in Game One of the NLDS last year. If Fukudome starts the season well, he’ll get more time on the field.

The second factor, which might play as much a role as Fukudome’s play, is the health of Bradley. Bradley has played in more than 100 games just twice in the past six seasons, with one of those being last year. He played in exactly 100 games last year as primarily a designated hitter; he totaled just 28 at-bats as a fielder last year. If Bradley can’t stay on the field, be it because of health or suspension, Fukudome’s services may be needed.

So, when putting together the over/under for at-bats in 2009 for Fukudome, we need to assume a few things.

First, that Piniella will start the season with the platoon in center, and that he’ll give both Fukudome and Johnson enough plate appearances to show if they’re performing or not. We’ll assume 40 games at three at-bats per game there.

Secondly, we need to assume (safely) that Bradley will miss 55 games in right. If Fukudome plays in 40 of those 55, we should be able to assume he gets three at-bats per game.

Thirdly, Fukudome is still an above-average outfielder and should see some situational pinch hits and at-bats after substitutions. We’ll figure on 30 appearances from these situations in the 82 games we haven’t covered on the field.

So, what does our math end up at?

Over/Under: 270 at-bats for Kosuke Fukudome in 2009.