Pitt-Xavier: Judgment Day

We have all heard it a million times now.  This is the year that Pitt HAS to get past the Sweet 16 to prove that they have taken the next step; that the program has reached the next level. 

It is about more than just whether or not the program can reach the next level, but whether or not Jamie Dixon can get a very talented and superior team to the Elite 8 and beyond. 

In years past, as much as we have wanted them to be, Pitt wasn’t an “elite” team talent-wise.  They have overachieved because inferior talent (i.e. no McDonald’s All-Americans, no NBA lottery picks, no All-Americans) was able to play together as a team and achieve beyond their individual skills.

This year Pitt has the talent.  They have two certain NBA picks.  DeJuan Blair has been picked to every All-American team you can find.  They have marquee wins over No. 1 teams.  This year Pitt can’t hide behind their overachiever status.  Now it is time to make good.

Today is Judgment Day.

And that is unfortunate really.  It is kind of sad that Pitt has put themselves in such a position.  They have had regular season and BET success but lackluster NCAA tournament play the last several years.  Now they have to perform in the NCAA tournament or find themselves questioned about whether or not this program even can reach the next level.

If Pitt loses today, we are going to begin hearing the claims that Jamie Dixon is basketball’s version of Walt Harris.  If Pitt loses today, we are going to hear that Dixon is taking off for Arizona (and depending on the fallout, that may just be the case). 

If Pitt loses today, we are going to hear that they just can’t; aren’t capable of reaching the next level.  And much like Peyton Manning faced in football, the longer Pitt goes without breaking the Sweet 16 barrier, the louder the claims will be that they simply can’t win a real big game. 

They will find themselves questioned more and more harshly every year until they break-through with a surprise national championship or something before that will get quieted down.

All is not lost.  I know I paint a gloomy picture.  Despite the reality of Pitt needing to win tonight, the Panthers find themselves the favorite in the game.  I haven’t seen or heard a single ESPN analyst pick Pitt to lose tonight.  In fact, despite their struggles in the first weekend of this tournament, most still have Pitt as a Final Four team.

Most surprisingly in Pitt’s corner is Doug Gottlieb.  In the following video he picks Pitt to win tonight against Xavier.

Likewise, he filled in for Mike Golic this morning on Mike and Mike in the Morning, where he picked Pitt as not only a Final Four team, but as his favorite for the national championship. 

It makes one wonder.  This is the same guy who, all season long, said that Pitt was overrated and that sooner or later they would lose and become irrelevant.  I guess two wins over UConn in addition to wins over Syracuse, Marquette, and [two wins over] WVU shows that Pitt is actually a good team.

Likewise Jay Bilas has Pitt in the Final Four, while saying that UConn is now the most impressive No. 1 seed (based on how they have played thus far) and UNC being the most vulnerable.

This "love" for Pitt means relatively little in terms of what happens tonight.  Analysts aren’t exactly scientists who can accurately predict what will happen every game.  After all, these same analysts who have UConn as the strongest No. 1 seed now, many of whom have Memphis losing to Missouri, are the same who had UConn listed as the first No. 1 seed going out of the tourney, with it coming at the hands of Memphis.

So the respect is nice.  It is nice to hear that our team isn’t expected to lose every game.  It is also nice being in a position where every matchup looks like a game that Pitt can [and should] win; unlike last year when Bobby Knight had them winning it all despite every matchup looking like Pitt would have to play above themsleves to win.

What is most important tonight is that Pitt simply asserts itself as the better team.  As Gottlieb says in the above video, Pitt has superior point guard play as well as an advantage with Blair and Sam Young. 

Many are talking about the height of Xavier’s frontcourt.  Height isn’t talent.  Height isn’t going to win it.  Blair embarassed Hasheem Thabeet.  Height doesn’t scare him.  Pitt has two of the best players in the country in their frontcourt.

If Pitt comes in and plays their game and if they dictate the pace and style, then their superior talent will be enough to win this game.

The outcome of Judgment Day for this team and this entire program falls squarely on the shoulders of this team.  They control their own destiny.  They control their own legacy. 

All they need to do is play their game and they win.  No naps.  No day off for anyone.  Just show up (all the players) and seize the future.  Or be prepared for the inevitable judgment that will follow.