NFL Playoff Picture 2012: Teams That Will Fall out of Hunt with Week 16 Loss

With a cabal of playoff scenarios yet to be decided, Week 16 will be a dichotomy between celebration and heartbreak throughout the NFL. Winning teams will get ever closer to uncorking the champagne bottles in February, as a ticket to the dance is all you need to compete for a Lombardi Trophy.

On the other side of the spectrum, those teams that lose might as well start booking vacations in January now. Because I want those players to get their travel plans booked before the busy holiday season, we'll focus on the latter teams today. 

With that in mind, here is a look at squads that will fall out of the playoff hunt with critical Week 16 losses. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

With the Colts having a virtual bye this week against the Chiefs, Sunday's contest between the Steelers and Bengals will ostensibly decide the No. 6 seed in the AFC. If Pittsburgh wins, it has the head-to-head tiebreaker and what should be a win against the Browns in Week 17. For Cincinnati, the race is over with a victory. 

In their first meeting, Pittsburgh did a fantastic job of locking up the Bengals' passing offense, particularly A.J. Green. The Bengals' star had just one catch for six yards, and though it was a touchdown, that Week 7 performance still stands as the worst of his career.

Still, despite Green's struggles and Andy Dalton throwing for only 105 yards (his lowest total since the start of his career), the Bengals lost by only seven points.

They won't lose this time. 

These are two wildly different teams from when they first met. The Bengals head into Week 16 having won five of their last six contests, with that loss being a one-point squeaker against the Cowboys. The Steelers, on the other hand, have lost four of five against the likes of San Diego and Cleveland.

Though Pittsburgh is at home, it's hard to see Mike Tomlin rallying the troops enough to get on Cincinnati's level. It'll be a close one, but the Steelers' season should be over after Week 16. 

Score Prediction: Bengals 24, Steelers 16

St. Louis Rams (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

While last week's loss to the Vikings essentially took the Rams out of the playoffs, they are still hanging on the fringes of contention. Winning out would put Jeff Fisher's squad at 8-7-1 and the team's tie against San Francisco would vault St. Louis to the playoffs.

And after the Buccaneers got embarrassed, 41-0, last week against the Saints, it's pretty easy to see a scenario where the Rams would have a chance heading into the final week of the season. 

To put it bluntly, don't hold your breath, Rams fans.

Though Tampa Bay's loss to New Orleans is obviously worthy of mocking, the fact remains it was only one game. Over the previous nine weeks, the Bucs had won five games and played within a field goal of the Broncos and Falcons. In case you hadn't noticed, those teams are on the path to first-round byes.

Granted, St. Louis played the 49ers to a tie and beat them in the past nine weeks, but those are the team's only two truly impressive performances in that time frame. 

Sam Bradford should have a brilliant game on Sunday for his fantasy owners, but the Bucs are a matchup nightmare against the run and should be able to move the ball through the air and ground on Sunday. 

It will hit the over as Greg Schiano's crew gets back on the winning track.

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 28, Rams 24

Minnesota Vikings (at Houston Texans)

With the Vikings' playoff life on the line, all eyes will be on Adrian Peterson on Sunday. The brilliant Minnesota running back is only 294 yards away from eclipsing Eric Dickerson's 28-year-old rushing record of 2,105 yards.

Unfortunately, Peterson could have a tough time gashing through the Texans' defense on Sunday. Through the first 15 weeks of the season, Houston has only given up 93.2 yards per game on the ground, good for fifth in the NFL. And according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Texans have the fifth-best defense in the league, a figure that's spurred by their brilliance in the front seven.

Sure, it's easy to argue that Peterson is matchup-proof. He gashed the top-ranked Buccaneers defense earlier this season and has done the same against other top-flight defenses as well.

However, it's a fact that Minnesota has not played a top-10 run defense since Week 9 against the Seahawks. 

And with Christian Ponder's development cratering, it's hard to see Peterson going off enough to stick with the Texans. Over 100 yards and a touchdown simply isn't going to cut it when Ponder has to deal with J.J. Watt and Co.

Of this week's "biggest" games, this one feels like a cavernous mismatch. Texans win and clinch themselves home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

Score Prediction: Texans 31, Vikings 17

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

DIVISION LEADERS
No. 1 Seed Atlanta Falcons (12-2) Clinched NFC South
No. 2 Seed San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1) Lead NFC West; Clinched Playoff Berth
No. 3 Seed Green Bay Packers (10-4) Clinched NFC North
No. 4 Seed Washington Redskins (8-6) Lead NFC East

WILD CARD LEADERS
No. 5 Seed Seattle Seahawks (9-5)
No. 6 Seed Minnesota Vikings (8-6)

IN THE HUNT
Chicago Bears (8-6)
Dallas Cowboys (8-6)
New York Giants (8-6)
St. Louis Rams (6-7-1)
New Orleans Saints (6-8)

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

DIVISION LEADERS
No. 1 Seed Houston Texans (12-2) Clinched AFC South
No. 2 Seed Denver Broncos (11-3) Clinched AFC West
No. 3 Seed New England Patriots (10-4) Clinched AFC East
No. 4 Seed Baltimore Ravens (9-5) Lead AFC North; Clinched Playoff Berth

WILD CARD LEADERS
No. 5 Seed Indianapolis Colts (9-5)
No. 6 Seed Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)

IN THE HUNT
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)
Miami Dolphins (6-8)

REMAINING SCHEDULE

NFC

Atlanta: vs. Detroit, vs. Tampa Bay

San Francisco: at Seattle, vs. Arizona

Green Bay: vs. Tennessee, at Minnesota

Washington: at Philadelphia, vs. Dallas

Seattle: vs. San Francisco, vs. St. Louis

Minnesota: at Houston, vs. Green Bay

Chicago: at Arizona, vs. Detroit

Dallas: vs. New Orleans, at Washington

New York: at Baltimore, vs. Philadelphia

St. Louis: at Tampa Bay, at Seattle

New Orleans: at Dallas, vs. Carolina

AFC

Houston: vs. Minnesota, at Indianapolis

Denver: vs. Cleveland, vs. Kansas City

New England: at Jacksonville, vs. Miami

Baltimore: vs. New York Giants, at Cincinnati

Indianapolis: at Kansas City, vs. Houston

Cincinnati: at Pittsburgh, vs. Baltimore

Pittsburgh: vs. Cincinnati, vs. Cleveland

Miami: vs. Buffalo, at New England

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