Tubby Smith and The Golden Gophers: Looking Ahead to 2010

Luckily for Tubby, this is not Kentucky country where an NIT and first-round exit in the coach's first two years can put him on the hot seat.

While Minnesota went from winning 16 of their first 17 games to losing 10 of their next 16 to finish only a slightly above-average 22-11 (9-9 in Big Ten), Golden Gopher fans should have nothing to worry about. This is even after a first-round exit, thanks to Texas, that ended a season where it looked like there was so much promise for the Gophers after a 70-64 win over Louisville in late December.

Yes, they nearly gave away their NCAA tournament bid to teams like Penn State and Northwestern down the stretch. Being outplayed by Michigan State twice, and also being swept by a bubble-bound Michigan team didn't help their seeding in the NCAA Tournament either. Winning 42 games in two seasons after an ugly 9-22 record during the 2006-2007 season, however, should have Gophers fans optimistic for the future.

Now that Tubby has the Gophers on the winning track again, it's time for the rest of the Gophers squad to build on 2009's success. Here are five factors that could take the Gophers from a bubble team to a Big Ten Championship contender.

1. Ralph Sampson III -Sampson III has a higher ceiling than any of the other big men (Iverson and Paul Carter) that were first recruited by Tubby last year. Sampson III was a project coming into his first year, but him, Damian Johnson and Colton Iverson helped alter hundreds of opponent's shots around the hoop. Now that Sampson III has a full year under his belt, expect his offense to expand, his lanky frame to add some muscle, and his defense to lead to less foul trouble.

2. Devoe Joseph -Joseph showed flashes towards the end of the season of being a reliable scorer. Whether it will be from off the bench as a spark plug or replacing Al Nolen at the point guard position is yet to be determined. His offense is desperately needed though, as this Gopher's squad relies heavily on their defense to give them extra possessions because of there lack of polished offensive players beyond Lawrence Westbrook.

Like Ralph Sampson III, this was Joseph's first year as a collegiate player and will make great progress over the summer and into next winter.

3. Blake Hoffarber and Al Nolen -The Gopher's flop in the last half of the season was mostly because of Hoffarber and Nolen's season-long shooting slumps. Both players struggled mightily on offense as the season progressed. They were huge in the Gopher's win over Louisville early in the season but both have also tailed off since then, especially in Big Ten play.

Nolen shot only 32.7 percent from the field against conference foes. This doesn't let Hoffarber off the hook, however. As a 3-point specialist, he would get an F for his contributions this year as he shot just 26 percent from beyond the arc.

If Hoffarber's and Nolen's offense can catch up to their defenses, Westbrook should be relieved of the pressure to put up around 15 points a night for a team that spreads around the scoring. Also look for the court to be stretched and defenses to be more hesitant to double in the paint if Hoffarber gets out of his shooting slums.

4. Royce White - White's a 5-star prospect and a homegrown stud that Tubby made sure to keep in maroon and gold. With an already polished offensive game, White's 6'7", 210-pound frame will allow him to play inside and out. His defense is not nearly as complete as his offense, but Tubby's pressure-defense approach will surely help him become a well-rounded freshman.

Expect White to average close to 10+ points per game and open up shots for 3-point snipers Devoe Joseph and Blake Hoffarber. Royce White's (as well as other homegrown recruit Rodney Williams Jr) athleticism will help add a new dimension to the Gopher's defense and offense.

5. Replacing Jonathan Williams and Jamal Abu-Shamala - These two players won't return for the 2009-2010 season due to seniority, but both will be replaced right from the get-go. Neither played significant minutes nor made a major impact during the season as both combined for only 141 points and 30 rebounds over 33 games. 

Expect Jonathan Williams to be replaced with a more effective post in Trevor Mbakwe. Mbakwe, a 6'7" post originally from the Twin Cities area, has the athleticism and agressiveness in the paint to contribute with rebounding and effective inside defense.

He should help the Gophers off the bench, or, depending on how much he has progressed at Miami Dade, possibly contribute while in the starting lineup. Mbakwe was a highly recruited, 4-star post out of St. Bernard's High School but has yet to find his role at a Division I program.

Jamal Abu-Shamala contributed a majority of the 141 points between him and Jonathan Williams. Incoming recruits Rodney Williams Jr. and Royce White will replace Abu-Shamala, and also steal a few minutes each from the rest of the Gopher's squad. Both will be adding even more depth to an already exceptionally deep team next year.

2010 Prediction

23+ wins

Top five in Big Ten

6th seed at worst in NCAA Tournament