USC-Boston College: A Breakdown of the Trojans-Eagles Matchup from a USC Expert

I will certainly admit to being a USC fan. However, I feel I am very much able to look at matchups impartially. If you check my user ID on CBSSportline (USC Holmey), you will see that I am a Pac-10 capper, and I will tell you that I have not chosen USC a single time this year as my LOCK of the day.

At the same time, I would like to let everyone know that another high-reputation capper, Detroit Nail, has told me he is very much on Boston College in tonight's game.

Nonetheless, I will go ahead and post my breakdown of the game here just to help out people with the perspective from someone who has seen 30-plus USC games and around 150 Pac-10 games this year.

My first reaction to getting BC in the draw was neutrality, since I have little knowledge of BC or their style of play. As I did more research, I found that they have a star in Tyrese Rice and several supporting players, although many are quite skilled.

In my opinion, this is an ideal type of matchup for USC, although I will admit that Boston College has an offense that can put up a lot of points, which can pose problems for the Trojans if BC gets off to a hot start and is hitting a lot of shots. Then again, I suppose that comment can be made about any team in any situation.

In my earlier post here on B/R, I broke down USC and how they play. One of the strengths of USC is a very long and very tenacious guard rotation, with all four or five perimeter defenders being 6'4" to 6'7". What this does for USC is allow them to really defend the perimeter, so any team that depends on guards for their production may be in trouble versus USC.

USC should put newly-anointed defensive stopper Marcus Simmons on Rice. Simmons was a surprise starter in the Pac-10 Tournament and was put in ONLY to harass and to drive the other team's PG nuts. He really did a great job on Cal's Jerome Randle, UCLA's Darren Collison, and ASU's Derek Glasser, although Glasser had a great first half before USC shut the Devils down in the second half and came back and won.

With the addition of Simmons as a defensive stopper on the other team's point guard, it allows USC's other best perimeter defender, Daniel Hackett, to free up and defend the team's best perimeter scorer, like ASU's James Harden or Arizona's Chase Budinger, who he shut down multiple times this year.

Taj Gibson can dominate the lane, so that allows the USC perimeter defenders to really push the defensive pressure out to the three-point arc, which means when you have four guys on the arc and their heights are 6'4", 6'5", 6'5", and 6'7", then you need to shoot from quite a long distance away to get shots over them.

Gibson is the Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year and USC's anchor in the middle. He is an ultra-aggressive shot blocker and is third in Pac-10 history in blocks, even though he is only a junior. He challenges every shot and is not afraid to pick up fouls, which is a problem, but he has gotten much better at that lately.

With that "eraser" in the middle, USC's perimeter defenders have the freedom to smother their man and have a nice safety net in case their man beats them off the dribble, which will happen because of how aggressive the defenders are.

I would expect Gibson to pick up a lot of blocks tonight because he is only 6'9" and players who don't know him think they can get shots off against him because he doesn't look that big, but his 7'2" wingspan and great athleticism make him play much bigger than that.

I would expect USC to come out in a ball-denial defense where Simmons just tails Rice and basically tries to drive him nuts initially. Despite his emergence in the Pac-10 Tournament, Simmons is "expendable" because he is no offensive threat and played very little during the regular season. If he gets into foul trouble, it is not a big deal because USC has plenty of other solid defenders who can take on Rice.

I would think that coach Tim Floyd's plan will be to force BC to play without the ball in Rice's hands as much as they would like. 

USC WILL WIN IF

They can dictate the pace and make it a half-court battle. USC will try to slow it down and make BC play defense every time down the floor. If it becomes a "chess match" kind of game, that much favors USC and Floyd's "junk" defensive schemes.

As long as USC can shoot a reasonable percentage and Gibson stays out of early foul trouble, they should be able to keep the game at a pace they prefer. If DeMar DeRozan is on, USC is very hard to beat because he is almost impossible to stop on mid-range shots and is the half-court offensive weapon USC needed all year.

BC WILL WIN IF

They get off to a hot start and hit some early threes. If this happens, USC tends to get out of their comfort zone if they get too far behind, and they are not afraid to run but usually get farther behind if they do let the other team push the pace. USC is by no means a "slow-down" team like Oregon State or Washington State, but they are not going to win if they play one of those ACC shootout games like UNC and BC like to play.

BC will also have a great chance if Simmons cannot stay in front of Rice and he is getting into the lane, drawing defenders, and creating open threes. This was a weakness for USC in the middle of the year but got mostly remedied later in the year with the addition of Simmons to the starting lineup exclusively as a defensive stopper to help relieve the pressure on the other USC guards.

This has all the makings of a great game, especially with the very intriguing matchup of Rice versus the USC perimeter defenders. If USC can make the game about other players than Rice, which I am sure will be their plan, then they can get a win and move on to play Michigan State on Sunday.