Lawson's Tarred Heel: His Return Critical to Carolina's Title Hopes

All hands on deck.  Ty Lawson is sitting out the first round, and has not played a full-on game since the Heels beat Duke on March 4. 

If the Heels get past Radford (UNC has never lost a first round NCAA game), either of their next potential opponents is a top 25 team (I picked Butler in my bracket).

Sitting Lawson against either of them is a much riskierproposition to the Heels' progressing through March Madness, despite their status as a favorite to win it all.

Playing Lawson, either today or in the next round, though, might pose a similar risk: two weeks out of competitive action is bound to cause some rust.  While Lawson is definitely a gamer with the heart of a champion, a rusty point guard is a recipe for disaster.

To be sure, the Heels have good depth, but they've had difficulty making the most of it this season. 

When Roy Williams says there's a "huge, huge probability" that Ty Lawson will sit against Radford, that is, in a way, saying is that he has tremendous confidence in Bobby Frasor and Larry Drew II's abilities to run the point, if only against a 16 seed.  Both proved more than able in the ACC tourney, despite semi-final loss to FSU. 

But neither Drew nor Frasor provide the spark that Lawson does.  I had the privilege to see Lawson play in person this year; I went to the game primarily to see if he's as fast as he looks on TV.  He's faster.  His court vision is phenomenal, as is his decision-making, including knowing exactly when to push it up the floor and create points on his own.

His slashing drives through the lane always make me laugh out loud and ask "how did he do THAT?!"  He's also got a nice three-point shot to boot.  Thus, he won ACC player of the year, in what was supposed to be Hansbrough's coronation as the greatest UNC player ever. 

No one questions that Lawson deserved that honor, least of all over Hansbrough, who despite having a very good year, did not have a "great" year.

Ultimately, the bench will need to step up while Lawson is out.  Danny Green has been in an awful shooting slump that started before the ACC tournament.  Ellington has been quietly scoring buckets of points, but he will need to have a break-out game in the second round if Lawson sits.

Hansbrough, too, will need to be Psycho-T, and notably, with Lawson out, he has in fact stepped up.  There's definitely a chemistry between he and Frasor (roommates), and it seems that Frasor (smartly) always looks for Hansbrough first when he's at the helm.

Ed Davis has shown flashes of brilliance and the bright future ahead (though he's no Marvin Williams; not yet anyway).  And where was Zeller in the ACC tourney?

Without Lawson, the Heels are a very good team, and will likely progress deep into the tourney.  But unless he rejoins them on the floor before too long, the odds on UNC cutting down the nets in Detroit are slim to none without some phenomenal play from some of UNC's many role players.