Updated 2012 Team Win-Loss Predictions for NFL Week 12
This is the point in the NFL season when teams are preparing for a run at the playoffs or evaluating players with an eye toward the offseason. These past few weeks have given clear signals about which teams look primed for a strong finish.
The San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans, New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons are most likely to end the season on a strong note, while things continue to spiral out of control for teams like the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs.
Here are my predictions for each NFL team's final record.
Dallas Cowboys
1 of 32Record: 5-5
Projected Record: 7-9
It's becoming obvious that this isn't a strong Cowboys team. Their struggle against the young and inexperienced Cleveland Browns only drives home that point.
On paper, the Cowboys have a ton of talent. However, the issues along the offensive line seem to overshadow the talent at the skill positions. This problem will only get worse, as it looks like Tyron Smith will miss a few weeks with an ankle injury.
Smith's injury means that the struggling Doug Free will need to shift to left tackle. Tony Romo can expect the pressure he sees to rise. This will likely result in hurried throws and possibly more turnovers.
New York Giants
2 of 32Record: 6-4
Projected Record: 10-6
Eli Manning's struggles are a real concern, but the bye week should've helped him rest and refocus. Over the past few years, the Giants always seem to play their best football late in the season. However, things don't set up well for another late-season run.
The Giants face a tough schedule down the stretch. Games against the Green Bay Packers, surging New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens will all be tough tests. It's possible that New York will lose a minimum of two of those games.
Despite the tough schedule, I have the Giants winning 10 games because of Manning's history as a strong late-season quarterback. Of course, if he comes out of the bye week still struggling with turnovers, it'll be a different story.
Philadelphia Eagles
3 of 32Record: 3-7
Projected Record: 6-10
This season has been a complete disaster for the Eagles, but these next couple of weeks offer a unique opportunity. Ownership and upper management can use this time to re-evaluate the roster. They'll especially get a chance to form an opinion on rookie quarterback Nick Foles.
Foles struggled in his first start Sunday in a loss to the Redskins, but he did show promise. The upcoming games against the Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers could help the Eagles decide if Foles has a future as the Eagles QB.
At the moment, however, the Eagles are a better team with Michael Vick under center. This is mainly because of Foles' inexperience. The way Philadelphia finishes the season will largely depend on who's starting at quarterback.
Washington Redskins
4 of 32Record: 4-6
Projected Record: 7-9
The Redskins are a threat to win any game remaining on their schedule because of Robert Griffin III. He's such a special player that he has elevated the play of the entire team. Griffin's ability to attack the deep part of the field opens things up for the running game.
He also helps the defense remain fresh because of the way he extends drives. Then there's the spark he provides with his explosive and exciting style of play.
The one thing keeping the Redskins out of the playoff hunt is the inconsistent performance of the defense. This unit ranks 29th in the league, allowing nearly 290 passing yards per game.
Most of the Redskins' remaining schedule comes against NFC East opponents. With the struggles of the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys, Washington has a chance to finish on a strong note.
Buffalo Bills
5 of 32Record: 4-6
Projected Record: 8-8
It's tough to pinpoint the reason why the Buffalo Bills are having such a disappointing season. Despite having a ton of talent, the defense has been one of the worst in the entire NFL—not to mention the struggles of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.
However, the coaching staff has also underperformed. Chan Gailey has a strong offensive mind, but is having a difficult time properly using the pieces on this roster. The biggest problem is the way he has utilized Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.
Jackson is a good football player, but Spiller is averaging more than six yards per carry. There's no reason why Spiller shouldn't be getting the bulk of the carries. In the past three games with Jackson in the lineup, Spiller has only averaged nine carries per game.
Buffalo's remaining schedule is manageable, with games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, St. Louis Rams and New York Jets. The way Buffalo plays down the stretch could determine if Gailey and the rest of the coaching staff is back next season.
Miami Dolphins
6 of 32Record: 4-6
Projected Record: 5-11
There was a short period of time when the Miami Dolphins were in the running for a playoff spot. They were in contention because of the strong play of the defense and the development of QB Ryan Tannehill. However, Miami hasn't been able to escape the fact that Tannehill is a rookie.
His lack of experience has led to some poor decisions and three consecutive losses. Tannehill might carry the majority of blame for the recent losing streak, but it's a lot to ask a rookie quarterback to carry an offense.
Miami's lack of offensive playmakers is one of the reasons they'll struggle to win more than two games the rest of the season. Upcoming games against good defenses like Seattle, New England and San Francisco will pose a challenge for Miami.
New England Patriots
7 of 32Record: 7-3
Projected Record: 12-4
The recent injury to Rob Gronkowski will hurt the production of the Patriots offense, but this is a unit firing on all cylinders. Tom Brady and company are averaging a league-high 35 points per game.
Losing Gronkowski could lower that number, but not enough to hurt the Patriots' chances of finishing the season on a strong note.
The improving play of New England's defense is also something that should help overcome the loss of Gronkowski. New England's recent trade to bring in Aqib Talib is already paying off, as he returned an interception for a touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts.
Talib's addition will help a secondary that has struggled to defend the pass. He doesn't only increase the talent level, he also improves the depth at the position.
New England has a balanced scheduled the rest of the way. Games against the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers will be tough, but the Patriots should have no problems with the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars.
New York Jets
8 of 32Record: 4-6
Projected Record: 7-9
Despite the up-and-down season for the New York Jets, they have a legitimate shot of winning every game remaining on the schedule. The game against the New England Patriots is the only one left against a team with a winning record.
New York can sneak into the playoffs if it can find a way to sweep the games against Arizona, Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Diego and Buffalo.
However, that all depends on the play of quarterback Mark Sanchez. His inconsistency is the main reason this team finds itself in a tough situation. He needs to find a way to improve his passing accuracy. New York won't win many more games if he can't raise his completion rate of 53 percent.
Arizona Cardinals
9 of 32Record: 4-6
Projected Record: 4-12
It's tough to win in the NFL with an unstable quarterback situation. The Cardinals' top quarterback options for the rest of the season are John Skelton and Ryan Lindley. Both offer little hope of leading the Cardinals to more victories.
Skelton is the more seasoned of the two, but he started last week's game so poorly that he was benched.
The quarterback situation isn't helped by the struggles of the offensive line. Arizona's line has surrendered a league-high 44 sacks—10 more than the next-worst unit in the league.
San Francisco 49ers
10 of 32Record: 7-2-1
Projected Record: 10-5-1
The San Francisco 49ers have an interesting dilemma. Colin Kaepernick played so well against the Chicago Bears that there's a quarterback controversy brewing. His play generated more explosive plays than the 49ers are used to producing.
Alex Smith is having a strong season, but San Francisco's offense could benefit from Kaepernick's big-play ability.
No matter who the starting quarterback is, San Francisco has the roster to finish with one of the better records in the league. Their strong defense gives the 49ers a chance to win any game on the schedule.
However, Kaepernick's strong showing does muddy the waters. Having even whispers of a quarterback change this late in the season could cause problems.
Seattle Seahawks
11 of 32Record: 6-4
Projected Record: 11-5
The Seahawks are starting to hit their stride. Russell Wilson's continued development and a top-notch and disruptive defense make the Seahawks a strong playoff contender.
While Wilson is having a terrific season, he is still a rookie and will make a few more mistakes down the stretch. However, the presence of running back Marshawn Lynch will help limit the impact of those mistakes. It's important for a rookie quarterback to have a strong running game to lean on.
Seattle is a balanced team that continues to improve each week.
St. Louis Rams
12 of 32Record: 3-6
Projected Record: 5-10-1
The Rams are in the middle of a five-game winless streak. This team has plenty of talent, but it also has a lot of inexperience in key places.
St. Louis' remaining schedule features very winnable games, but the inconsistency of the team will limit the number of late-season wins. Sam Bradford and the offense just haven't been able to string together consecutive strong performances.
A lot of this has to do with the lack of weapons at wide receiver and issues along the offensive line. These problems will be the main reason why St. Louis finishes with another losing record.
Denver Broncos
13 of 32Record: 7-3
Projected Record: 13-3
The Broncos are playing their best football and have a favorable schedule the rest of the season. Peyton Manning and company should have no problem handling the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs (twice), Oakland Raiders and Cleveland Browns.
With all the success of Manning and the offense, Denver's defense is getting overlooked. This unit is playing good football, allowing just more than 21 points per game, 11th in the league. The pressure generated by defensive MVP candidate Von Miller is the catalyst for the group's success.
Don't be surprised if the Broncos finish with the best or second-best record in the AFC.
Kansas City Chiefs
14 of 32Record: 1-9
Projected Record: 1-15
There's not much of an argument to be made: The Kansas City Chiefs are the worst team in the NFL. They have issues on all levels on both sides of the ball, but the biggest problems are at quarterback.
Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn don't have the talent or consistency to win games. Both lack the ability to attack the deep part of the field or consistently move the chains. Their struggles also have negatively impacted the running game.
Opposing defenses are pressing the line of scrimmage because they don't respect the passing attack.
The poor quarterback play is the reason why it's unlikely the Chiefs will win another game this season.
Oakland Raiders
15 of 32Record: 3-7
Projected Record: 4-12
As a team, the Oakland Raiders don't have the personnel to win many games down the stretch. However, Carson Palmer's presence is a bit of a game-changer. He has shown that he still has the talent to put up strong numbers.
Because of Palmer, the Raiders are one of the tougher teams to predict. They have winnable games against the Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, Carolina Panthers and San Diego Chargers.
However, the lack of consistency and talent means that Oakland could very well lose all those games. It doesn't help that Darren McFadden is out of the lineup. Even when in the lineup, he has been ineffective.
San Diego Chargers
16 of 32Record: 4-6
Projected Record: 6-10
It's frustrating to watch the San Diego Chargers. I can't imagine being a fan of that team. There's so much talent on the roster that this team should be in the thick of the playoff hunt. However, the constant mistakes and struggles of Philip Rivers are maddening.
Based on its performance this year, it's tough to give this team the benefit of the doubt. Because of the inconsistent play at key spots, the Chargers will struggle down the stretch.
They have tough games against Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh remaining. Even the games against the New York Jets and Carolina will be a struggle for them to win.
Chicago Bears
17 of 32Record: 7-3
Projected Record: 11-5
The Chicago Bears have scored 13 points in their past two games. Chicago's offensive line problems are taking their toll on the offense, forcing Jay Cutler out of the lineup and contributing to the poor performance by Jason Campbell.
Chicago is in real trouble if it doesn't find a way to get the offense on track. The defense is excellent, but it can't overcome turnovers and constant three-and-outs. This past week the defense was exposed by the 49ers' Colin Kaepernick because it had little rest or time to make adjustments.
The Bears offense still has plenty of talent, but changes need to be made to the game plan.
Things don't get easier for the offensive line down the stretch. Chicago faces teams with good pass rushes like Minnesota, Green Bay, Arizona, Detroit and Seattle.
Detroit Lions
18 of 32Record: 4-6
Projected Record: 8-8
Despite a roster filled with talent, the Lions are struggling to win. The offense isn't nearly as explosive as last year, and the defense has given up too many big plays. However, the lack of discipline might be the biggest issue plaguing this team.
The defense has dealt with missed assignments, poorly timed penalties and lapses in focus. Detroit's offense is also dealing with similar issues. It's tough to find a rhythm as an offense when penalties, drops and poorly run routes kill a drive.
Because of the talent on the roster, Detroit should be able to squeak out a few more wins. However, it's also possible the Lions will finish without another win. It depends on whether Jim Schwartz can get his roster under control.
The remaining schedule features tough matchups against Houston, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Atlanta and Chicago.
Green Bay Packers
19 of 32Current Record: 7-3
Projected Record: 10-6
The Packers are in the midst of five-game winning streak and are one of the hotter teams in the league. However, their schedule features four tough NFC North games.
Combined with a road game against the New York Giants, this means it's likely the Packers will suffer a few more losses.
Outside of the tough schedule, injury problems along the offense line are worrisome. Even Aaron Rodgers becomes a little inaccurate when faced with pressure.
This is an extremely talented team, but it will have some hiccups down the stretch.
Minnesota Vikings
20 of 32Record: 6-4
Projected Record: 8-8
Christian Ponder's bounce-back performance against the Detroit Lions allowed the Minnesota Vikings to head into the bye week on a high note. It also gives the team momentum heading into the final stretch of the season.
Ponder's play will determine whether the Vikings make a run at the playoffs. Minnesota has a great ground game with Adrian Peterson, and the defense is playing better than expected.
However, Ponder needs to find some consistency for the Vikings to have a strong finish. Minnesota has several difficult games remaining, including ones against Chicago (twice), Green Bay (twice) and Houston.
Those five games won't be easy for Ponder and the passing game.
Baltimore Ravens
21 of 32Record: 8-2
Projected Record: 10-6
For a team with an 8-2 record, the Ravens have generated a lot of negative talk. However, they've been able to overcome both injuries and inconsistent play by Joe Flacco.
The injury problem is the team's biggest issue. Losing Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb for an extended period time hurts. However, they're also dealing with nagging injuries to Jimmy Smith, Pernell McPhee and Haloti Ngata.
Outside of the injuries, the up-and-down performances by Flacco make it tough to jump on the Ravens bandwagon. Those injuries on defense make it critical that Flacco improve his play.
If he's unable to correct his mistakes, the Ravens will have a tough time beating Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Denver and the New York Giants.
Cincinnati Bengals
22 of 32Record: 5-5
Projected Record: 9-7
The Cincinnati Bengals are riding a two-game winning streak and playing impressive football. One of the main reasons is the improved play of the defense. Over the past two games, the Bengals have allowed 19 points.
Combined with the continued development of Andy Dalton and dominance of A.J. Green, this gives the Bengals a good chance to have a strong finish.
Cincinnati has a chance to extend its winning streak with upcoming games against Oakland, San Diego, Dallas and Philadelphia. Winning the majority of those games would set up back-to-back AFC North matchups against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
Dalton's play and ability to avoid mistakes will be important, but the defense's improved play will determine how the rest of the season goes.
Cleveland Browns
23 of 32Record: 2-8
Projected Record: 5-11
Despite an ugly record, the Browns have actually played better than expected. They've only lost one game by more than 10 points, and that was against the New York Giants in a game in which they actually held an early lead.
Cleveland is playing good football despite having a young roster. The Browns have rookie starters at several key positions, including quarterback, running back, wide receiver, right tackle, linebacker and defensive tackle.
This upcoming week they have a great opportunity to earn another win as they take on Pittsburgh, which is missing Ben Roethlisberger. They also have games remaining against Oakland and Kansas Chiefs.
Pittsburgh Steelers
24 of 32Record: 6-4
Projected Record: 10-6
The Steelers are in a tough situation with the recent injuries to Ben Roethlisberger and Byron Leftwich. This leaves them with Charlie Batch as their only healthy quarterback. As a result, Pittsburgh will have a tough time pulling off wins against an underrated Cleveland team and Baltimore.
Nobody knows the timetable for Roethlisberger's return, but the Steelers need him back as soon as possible. This is that critical part of the season when teams put together their best push for a playoff berth.
The one thing going for the Steelers is the strong play of the defense. This group is only allowing 19 points per game, which means Pittsburgh doesn't need a lot of production from the offense to get a win.
However, it's difficult to project many more wins for this team with the uncertainty surrounding Roethlisberger.
Atlanta Falcons
25 of 32Record: 9-1
Projected Record: 13-3
The Falcons are showing a lot of poise and an ability to find ways to win. They continue to squeak games out at the end, as well as overcome turnovers. Their ability to pull a win off against Arizona despite Matt Ryan throwing five interceptions was amazing.
However, walking such a tightrope will end up biting the Falcons at some point.
They have a tough stretch ahead with games against Tampa Bay (twice), New Orleans and the New York Giants. Those teams are much more talented than the Cardinals, so it's unlikely Atlanta can overcome those types of mistakes against those teams.
However, this is a team with a ton of talent that should have no problem finishing with the best record in the NFC.
Carolina Panthers
26 of 32Record: 2-8
Projected Record: 4-12
The sophomore slump of Cam Newton has hurt the Carolina Panthers. This team isn't the same when Newton isn't producing explosive plays. Carolina's struggles aren't entirely Newton's fault, but he's failing to meet expectations.
Those expectations were based on Newton's excellent rookie season. However, it appears that opposing defenses have figured out how to neutralize his playmaking ability. The issues on offense have only magnified the problems on defense.
If anything, the offensive issues have made things tougher on a defense that's actually playing decent football. The defense is stuck dealing with the offense's turnovers, constant three-and-outs and negative attitude.
Carolina is going to have a tough time finishing on a strong note. Things just keep spiraling out of control, and we've seen that Newton struggles overcoming adversity.
New Orleans Saints
27 of 32Record: 5-5
Projected Record: 10-6
Don't look now, but the Saints have won five of their last six games. Drew Brees continues to lead a highly productive offense, and the defense is starting to generate more turnovers. The improved play of the defense is the key for the rest of the Saints' season.
Most overlooked is the major difference between Steve Spagnuolo's and Gregg Williams' defensive strategy. It appears that the Saints just needed time to adjust to the new system. This defense doesn't have the talent to be a great unit—but with Brees in place, it doesn't have to be.
The road won't be easy, but the Saints have a chance to make a run at the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
28 of 32Record: 6-4
Projected Record: 9-7
The Buccaneers are playing good football, but they have one of the tougher remaining schedules in the league. They have games against Atlanta (twice), Denver, New Orleans and St. Louis.
Tampa Bay's only chance to make a run at the playoffs is if it's able to negotiate this stretch. That depends on Josh Freeman's ability to continue his strong play. Freeman has been on a hot streak, but there were times earlier in the season when he struggled with his accuracy.
The Buccaneers have put together a solid season, but the schedule is too difficult for them to finish strong. This is a young team that will only continue to improve. The time to compete is a little down the road.
Houston Texans
29 of 32Record: 9-1
Projected Record: 14-2
The Texans are the most balanced team in the NFL. They have a strong running game, great defense and Matt Schaub showed this past week he can put up huge numbers. At this point, Houston must concentrate on not losing its edge.
The Texans could wrap up the No. 1 playoff seed before their last game of the season at Indianapolis. This could be a meaningless game for Houston, but could also determine whether the Colts make the playoffs.
We may see Gary Kubiak rest some starters in this game, which would give the Colts an edge.
Indianapolis Colts
30 of 32Record: 6-4
Projected Record: 10-6
The Colts have a realistic chance to make the playoffs. However, it'll take a strong performance down the stretch. They must win games against Buffalo, Detroit, Tennessee and Kansas City.
None of these are guaranteed victories, so the Colts will need to remain focused and play their best football. However, sweeping those games would put Indianapolis at 10 wins and in good playoff position.
The key is the play of Andrew Luck. He needs to do a better job avoiding turnovers and putting his defense in tough spots.
It's also important to factor in the inspiration head coach Chuck Pagano has given this team. Veteran leaders like Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will ensure this team does its best not to squander this opportunity.
Jacksonville Jaguars
31 of 32Record: 1-9
Projected Record: 2-14
Despite the recent strong performance against the Houston Texans, the Jaguars remain one of the worst teams in the league. Their biggest issue is the struggle at quarterback. However, Chad Henne's impressive game against Houston gives the team some optimism.
Moving forward, the Jaguars have a shot to win a few more games if Henne can match his most recent output. The games against Tennessee Titans (twice), Buffalo and the New York Jets are all potential Jacksonville wins.
However, Henne needs to show more than a one-week breakout in order to project this team for a turnaround.
Tennessee Titans
32 of 32Record: 4-6
Projected Record: 6-10
The Titans' season has been full of peaks and valleys. That's one reason why it's tough to get a good read on the team. Another reason is the inconsistent play at quarterback. Whether it's Jake Locker or Matthew Hasselbeck, it's tough to figure out what type of performance to expect.
For example, Locker went 9-of-21 for only 122 passing yards against the Miami Dolphins. However, he made several big plays that helped the Titans record a 37-3 victory.
Also playing a role in the Titans' unpredictability is a young and inexperienced defense. This group features talent, but it is also mistake-prone.
Tennessee has three winnable games remaining—against Jacksonville (twice) and New York Jets. Even with the inconsistency of the team, the Titans should be able to win at least two of those.
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