The Duke Blue Devils' Road to the Sweet 16

No. 2 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 15 Binghamton Bearcats

Binghamton certainly isn’t the easiest 15 seed the Blue Devils could've been paired with in the first round. Their 11-game winning streak and 88th-ranked RPI suggest that they should be seeded more in the 13-14 range. Throw in the fact that Duke struggled to defeat 15th-seeded Belmont last year, and you might think the Blue Devils' early round issues would continue this year.

This, however, probably won’t be the case for a multitude of reasons, but if you find yourself watching Thursday night’s game, like I will be, here are some matchups to watch.

No. 15 Gerald Henderson (Duke) vs. No. 2 D.J. Rivera (Binghamton)

These are the best players on their respective teams. With Binghamton’s quicker lineup, Henderson could find himself facing Rivera early and often.

For a little background info on the matchup, both are 6'4" junior forwards hailing from the Philadelphia area. Henderson earned first team All-ACC honors and is one of the most athletic players in the entire college game.

Rivera would have earned first team All-America East honors had his transfer to Binghamton not been so shady, but he did lead his conference in scoring and finished in America East’s top 10 for both rebounding and steals.

Henderson will be one of Duke’s key players throughout the tourney, and on the Binghamton side, Rivera will have to play his A-game.

No. 20 Elliot Williams (Duke) vs. No. 32 Tiki Mayben (Binghamton)

Both of these guards have been the cornerstones of their team’s recent success. For Duke, highly-touted freshman Williams finally got his chance to start a few weeks ago, and in that time he has reinvigorated his elder teammates in the process.

As far as Mayben goes, he’s started nearly every game for the Bearcats, but his production has really picked up in the last 10 games (17.5 ppg, 5.4 apg), helping Binghamton win every one. He seems like a talented ball handler and distributor, so it falls on Williams, Coach K’s new favorite lockdown defender, to shut him down.

Here are the general matchups for the squads.

Backcourt

The Devils' guards are top-notch every year, and this year is no exception. This team is known for their outside shooting, led by junior Jon Scheyer, and has a good combination of energy and experience. Binghamton rolls with a four-guard lineup, making them undersized, but possibly quicker than a not so athletic Duke team.

Frontcourt

Duke is known for being soft and small inside but sophomore Kyle Singler looked very impressive throughout the ACC tourney after losing significant steam around the same time last year. For however small the Blue Devils may be, the Bearcats are even smaller. 6'6" Reggie Fuller is their tallest starter, and their only taller players play limited minutes. Duke should have a big advantage here with bigger and more talented players.

Bench

Mike Krzyzewski has really cut down on bench minutes as the year has gone along. Greg Paulus, Brian Zoubek, and Miles Plumlee aren’t playing as much as they did earlier this year. Dave McClure is a solid defensive bench contributor, but most of the offense comes from the starters.

Binghamton’s bench looks unspectacular, with no standouts in any major categories. Duke doesn’t play very deep, but their bench looks better than Binghamton’s—another Duke advantage here.

Bottom line

The formula for major upsets like this one is dependent on three-point shooting. Binghamton (33.1 percent) probably isn’t strong enough in this respect to pull off the upset. Bigger size, better coaching, and general ability should be enough to easily put Duke into the second round.

Possible Second Round Opponents: No. 7 Texas Longhorns

Key Matchup: No. 12 Kyle Singler (Duke) vs. No. 5 Damion James (Texas)

Two professional prospects projected to go around the same time in the draft. Singler is slightly taller and has an offensive repertoire that includes more ball handling, but these two could see a lot of each other. Singler looked particularly strong in the ACC tournament, and if Texas wants to win, James has to keep him in check.

Backcourt

Everyone knows A.J. Abrams; he’s Texas’ star player, and his shooting will probably decide how far Texas advances in the tourney. Other guards Justin Mason and Dogus Balbay lead this backcourt, which isn’t very turnover prone.

This star power, plus good ball handling, should be a good test for Duke’s perimeter defense, which has been superb all season. If Elliot Williams and Nolan Smith can neutralize Abrams’ impact and force him into some bad shots, it’ll be a huge boost for the Blue Devils.

Texas’ guard combo looks to be on the small side though, and they’ll likely have some difficulty stopping Jon Scheyer’s outside shots.

Frontcourt

NBA prospect Damion James leads a strong Longhorns bunch here. He is a strong rebounder who would be a good counter to Duke’s Kyle Singler, although he doesn’t have the same offensive skill.

James, Dexter Pittman, and senior Connor Atchley are all good shot blockers, which could cause some issues for a Duke team that likes to drive early and often. None of these players are standouts on offense though, so look to see the Blue Devils with the edge here on defense.

Duke could get Pittman into foul trouble early and really make playing around the basket a whole lot easier.

Bench

Duke has two former starting point guards on the bench, along with a seven-foot center and a defensive stopper; it’s difficult for any team to match that. Texas, for their credit, has Atchley, who looks like a strong senior leader on the bench.

Bottom Line

If Duke plays their usual brand of basketball and A.J. Abrams doesn’t suddenly turn into Stephen Curry, this should be a win for Duke. Mike Krzyzewski has had Rick Barnes’ number in the past. I was in New Jersey for the 91-60 clobbering three years ago, and while the teams are different, the venue is even more favorable for Duke this time.

No. 10 Minnesota Golden Gophers

Key Matchup: No. 12 Kyle Singler vs. No. 34 Damian Johnson

Looks like it could be the same pairing from the Texas game, but Johnson is different than James. Johnson looks like one of the best defenders in the Big Ten, which is really saying something. While he’s not a huge offensive threat, his ability to stop Singler and Duke’s other post players will be key for the Gophers. If this doesn’t happen, Singler could have a huge game against an undersized Minnesota team.

Backcourt

Lawrence Westbrook is Minnesota’s only player who averages double figures in points, which should make things easy for a very intelligent and disciplined Duke backcourt. Al Nolen is a classic assists and steals guard, but since Jon Scheyer got inserted at the point, Duke’s turnovers have declined significantly.

Frontcourt

Minnesota relies heavily on freshmen Ralph Sampson and Colton Iverson in the post. While I love seeing the name Ralph Sampson back in the NCAA tournament, Duke’s battle-tested group of forwards should have no problems here.

Bench

This could be a strength for Minnesota. Tubby Smith likes using bench players, which could mean a fresher, more energetic team than Duke, which only really goes eight or nine deep.

Minnesota has 11 players who play at least a quarter of the team’s minutes, with no single player playing more than two-thirds of the time. Duke’s playing time is much more skewed towards the big three, Henderson, Scheyer, and Singler.

In a close game, Minnesota could have more legs at the end.

Bottom Line

Duke has never lost in the ACC-Big Ten challenge, and that should be a good bearing of their chances here. Earlier this year Duke beat a more talented Purdue team at Purdue by 16 points, a Purdue team that also happened to defeat Minnesota at Minnesota. Minnesota’s defense could keep the game close, but the Gophers don’t have the offensive spark needed to keep up with Duke.

So, in conclusion, I see the Blue Devils handling this opening weekend with relative ease. If any one of the big three are playing well, it should be enough to carry the Blue Devils to Boston. If I were Mike Krzyzewski, I would prefer a second round pairing with a Minnesota team that struggles to score points.

Coach K will definitely want to send a message with these early games. This could be Duke’s year, and looking dominant early would be a huge boost for the second and possibly third weekend.