Breakdown of the UCLA Bruins for the NCAA Tournament

Team:  UCLA Bruins

Style of play

UCLA is an enigma at this point.  They have always been a sturdy defensive team, and that is how they reached the Final Four the last three years.

However, they have spurned defense for most of this year, choosing instead to get into running matches with teams who are actually better at scoring than they are.

At the very end of the season, they seemed to clamp down a little more, but they appear as though they are willing to try and outscore their opponent rather than out-work them, which had always been Howland's calling card coming into this season. 

I would expect UCLA to stiffen up on the defensive end in the Tournament, but don't be surprised if they get caught up in a running game by an opponent who prefers to score a lot rather than play tough, defensive basketball. 

The strengths of the past UCLA teams under Howland was that they were able to exert their will on their opponents, but this year UCLA seems much more content to play they style their opponent wants to. 

Like I mentioned, I expect them to toughen up in the first round, but I have been expecting them to do that all year and it just hasn't happened.

Strengths

Coaching and Collison. UCLA's engine is Darren Collison. He is a superb floor leader and at this point is like having a coach on the floor. He is good at everything. He is an exceptional defender, can run the break, and is a great ball-handler and QB in the half-court set and is even a great 3-point shooter. 

He is undervalued for his contributions to this team, but UCLA really lacks any other true star. They have many good players, from Shipp to Aboya to Dragovic to Holliday, but the only one who is a standout is Collison.

Holliday has flashes of brilliance, but can be taken out of the game by a good defender. 

UCLA can get into a shooting run where Dragovic, Roll, Shipp, and Collison, will hit several threes in a row and they can blow a team out that way. However, they sometimes get too dependant on threes and if they are off (as they were against USC in the Pac-10 Tournament), they will have a really hard time scoring.

Weaknesses

UCLA really lacks consistent scoring threats and have no real offensive post options.  Aboya is an adequate inside player, but he is not much more than a rebounder and defender of the paint, so UCLA will go on scoring droughts if they can't get some points in transition and on defense.

At their worst, they become a jump-shooting team and they are only slightly above average at that. The Bruins have good depth and a lot of players get in the game, but the players on the bench are very young and can look lost if playing against a smart team.

When Collison is out, UCLA often looks confused.

Should do well against

Deliberate teams that might have weak guard play. UCLA's perimeter players can dominate a game if their counterparts are not that great. UCLA would do well against a Big Ten style team because they are solid in the half court and Collison really shines in a game that is a "chess match" style. 

Could have trouble with

A run-and-gun, up-tempo team that can score in bunches.  UCLA can play with these teams, but it is a strain on them and they have to be at their best, in my opinion. UCLA has won high scoring games, but usually not against teams that are better than them.  They usually do worse when playing these kinds of teams.

Best-case scenario

They get their defense-first mentality back and manage to get past Villanova in Philadelphia. I think if UCLA can keep games in the 60's they are at their best. If they allow the other team to push the pace and get into a long-range shooting match, they become susceptible. 

But if Collison plays his best and is able to run the team like he can, UCLA can get out of the second round even though they have two tough games. If they do that, then I think that they may have the confidence and momentum to win another game or two.

Worst-case scenario

VCU just lights them up and UCLA can't get anything going like they sometimes do.  They could easily lose to VCU, but I suspect they will be able to pull the game out because of experience and poise. 

The next game seems much tougher and if UCLA is not hitting their outside shots, they will have a very hard time finding scoring and could get beaten badly.

If everything goes right, they could reach

The Final Four. However, they would have to play better and more consistently than they have all year.

Even as a USC fan, I think they have the potential to get to Detroit, but I would not count on it because that would take four good games in a row and with the style they have showed this year, it makes it very hard to be steady for four straight games.

If they can get back to where they dominate on defense, then things could be a bit easier for them, but I am not sure that is where Howland's focus is this year. 

Maybe they do not have the same personnel to play a purely-defensive style this year, but I think the style they do play has made them much less of a threat in a Tournament style format.