Someday, It Will Happen: A 16th-Seed Victory

I try not to concern myself with low probability events: winning the lottery, death by shark, Virginia's coach getting fired (nevermind), or being struck by lightning, twice.

Around this time of year, however, I do concern myself with one low-likelihood event: a 16th seed beating a number 1 seed.

There's four games every year and the Goliaths are undefeated against the Davids since the brackets went to 64+ teams. In 1989, the Princeton Tigers almost pulled a fast one on the undefeated Georgetown Hoyas. Pete Carril's back-door offense lulled the Hoyas to sleep, but yet, Georgetown prevailed.

At some point it's going to happen, because the odds aren't zero.  It's the one-armed bandit: you keep pulling that lever, sooner or later, it'll come up sevens.

When it does occur, everyone's brackets will be shot to hell and the top seed (and its coach) will be excoriated.  The winning coach will be pronounced as a genius and will be heralded. I will be a happy, happy man.

Let's look at the chances for each of the four games this year.

Louisville versus Play-in Winner (Morehead State versus Alabama State)

The play-in game sure seems like a raw deal to me. You're saying that the winner of this game (tonight) has to hang around Dayton, OH for two days in order to be the sacrificial lamb to Louisville? Yuck.

The likely winner is Morehead St., who features 15 ppger Leon Buchanan. The senior has an outstanding true shooting percentage of 61 percent. That's probably because he doesn't shoot any (ok, three this year) threes. However, Alabama State rocks the best name in the country: Chief Kickingstallionisms.

Either way, with the way Louisville's been playing of late, I think they'll probably steamroll the competition.

Chances of upset: Almost nil

North Carolina versus Radford

Do you see that picture up there? That, my friends, is Chris Burgess and Roshown McLeod pulling a Night of the Roxbury on an unnamed Radford player in the 1998 tourney (the movie came out the same year!). So they clearly have experience playing highly ranked ACC opponents in the tournament.

There's also the possibility that Ty Lawson will be out for the game resting his toe injury, which could bode well for the Highlanders. That's their mascot, I'm not making this up.

However, even without Lawson, UNC's secondary break and depth can pose a problem for even the most able-bodied foes. Radford will be lucky to stay with the 'Heels for a half.

Chances of upset: A sequel of Night at the Roxbury is more likely.

UConn versus Chattanooga

Chattanooga is one hot team. After finishing with a losing record in the regular season, the Mocs (again, seriously?) ran through the Southern Conference tournament. They won their three games and will take that auto-bid, thank you very much.

They beat the College of Charleston, who beat Davidson.  Therefore, using transitivity, Chattanooga > The Stephen Currys.

But...UConn has Hasheem Thabeet and Jeff Adrien and they're fresh off a six-overtime loss. They're hungry and pissed.

Chances of Upset: More likely that the game will go to seven OTS.

Pittsburgh versus East Tennesee State (ETSU)

Now, here's a game I can get behind.  ETSU has a senior backcourt of Courtney Pigram and Kevin Tiggs. Junior Mike Smith averages 15 ppg. The Buccaneers arrrrrrrrrrrrrrre (sorry) solid at shooting the ball with an eFG of 51 percent.

They also don't turn the ball over too much, but yet also create a lot of turnovers.

Pitt, meanwhile, is a an offensive juggernaut when DeJuan Blair is on the court. His offensive rebounding is astronomical. Really, it's completely and utterly absurd. The fact that he's not getting more pub for National POY bothers the living crap out of me.

Some experts wizards authorities idiot tried to show that Pitt is actually a rather inconsistent team. They are somewhat susceptible when Blair is out.  So, if somehow ETSU can manage that, they might have a chance.

Chances of Upset: Not great, but better than the other three. If you're betting the long shot to win, place your dinero here.