Penguins-Rangers in the Playoffs: A Long Ranger Prediction

Hockey pundits are now predicting a fourth place finish for the Pittsburgh Penguins, giving them home ice advantage for the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

That would put them behind only the Boston Bruins, New Jersey Devils, and Washington Capitals.

Behind them for the other four playoff spots would be Philadelphia Flyers, Montreal Canadiens, New York Rangers, and Carolina Hurricanes.

If the playoffs started tomorrow, it would be Boston versus Carolina, New Jersey versus New York, Washington versus Montreal, and Philadelphia versus Pittsburgh.

But the playoffs do not start tomorrow. There are a dozen games in the next month and that could change the playoff picture radically, in this era of salary caps and parity in the new NHL.

If one month from now was tomorrow, I predict it would be New Jersey versus Carolina, Boston versus Montreal, Washington versus Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh against New York City.

That's right. I'm going out on a limb to make a wild prediction: It will be the Penguins versus the Rangers, just like the second round of the playoffs last year, but the Rangers will get revenge with a series win in five games.

Call me crazy, but I have a strong feeling that's the way it will work out.

How could the Rangers possibly beat the Penguins? you ask. I have ten good reasons.

Right now the Penguins and Rangers, my two favorite teams, have a lot in common even though they are very different.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are 37-26-8.
The New York Rangers are 36-26-8.

After tomorrow, when New York plays Montreal, the Rangers will most likely move into a tie with the Penguins.

The 'Guins have two of the top players in the NHL. The 'Gers have lots of NHL captains and first round draft picks. Hockey fans love to hate Sean Avery but they hate to love Sidney Crosby.

The Penguins have 11 games left, with seven at home. The Rangers have 12 games left, with six at home.

Playing in Pittsburgh is like having an extra man on the ice for the Penguins but playing in Madison Square Gardens is like having two extra men on the ice for the Rangers.

The Penguins have been out of the playoffs all year, until recently. The Rangers have been in the playoff picture all year, until recently, and now they're in it again.

The Penguins fired their coach and hired Dan Bylsma as their interim coach. The Rangers fired their coach and hired fiery John Tortorella as their head coach.

The Penguins added Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin at the trade deadline. The Rangers added Nik Antropov and Derek Morris at the trade deadline and got Sean Avery back just before that.

Here are my top 10 reasons the Rangers will beat the Penguins in the first round of the playoffs:

1. Goaltending

If it's Henrik Lundqvist versus Marc-Andre Fleury, the Rangers will win. They say great goaltending is essential for playoff success. Fleury is great but King Henrik just sent an NHL record for winning 30 games a year for his first four years in the NHL.

2. The Avery Effect

Stan Fischler, blogging for the Rangers, identified The Avery Effect as his ability to "1. Drive the opposition crazy; 2. Drive the enemy coach nuts; and 3. Play the game like a light tank while imitating a pinball being bounced around by a flipper.

3. Sidney Crosby versus Colton Orr

I would never call Crosby a whiner or a crybaby, but Avery has and so would Colton Orr if he could get Crosby to fight about it. Orr is the Rangers enforcer. Who is the Penguins enforcer? Exactly! They don't have one.

4. Antropov vs. Malkin

Pittsburgh's big Russian, Malkin, has led the league in points all year but New York's Antropov, from Kazakstan, is bigger, older, and ready to explode.

Malkin faded mysteriously in the final round of the playoffs last year. As well as leading the league all this year, he has carried the Penguins when Crosby was injured, before the reinforcements arrived.

The superstar from the Magnitogorsk Metalurg was overshadowed all year by Crosby and Ovechkin, despite getting more points than either of them. After almost a decade wiith the Toronto Maple Leafs, Antropov must be hungry for playoff action. He was overshadowed by Mats Sundin almost all that time. If anyone can shut down Malkin, Antropov can.

5. Chris Drury vs. Guerin

Can Drury shut down Guerin? Can the captain of the Rangers take on the former captain of the Islanders? Ask yourself this: How did Guerin's Islanders do against Drury's Rangers? I rest my case.

6. Scott Gomez vs. Kuntitz

Kunitz came to life as Crosby's winger, but Gomez has thrived under Rangers coach tortorella's new game plan which calls for non-stop aggressive attack. The Rangers have been playing playoff hockey since early March.

7 and 8. Nik Zherdev and Markus Naslund

Zherdev is the Rangers top points getter this year and Naslund, the former Vancouver Canucks scoring sensation, give the Rangers depth the Penguins cannot match.

The Penguins have two huge goal scorers and two secondary scorers. The Rangers have 7 go-to-it guys when goals are needed.

9. Avery, again

In addition to the Avery Effect, described above, Avery has turned into a big goal scorer. He played that role last year from the third line and this year he is on the top line, scoring a goal a game.

10. Depth

The Penguins don't have much depth. The Rangers were underachievers for half the season, their critics say. After a long mid-season rest, they should be ready for playoff action as overachievers.

Rangers in five.