Your March Madness Survival Guide

Monday Morning Point Guard

A LayupDrill.com Exclusive
3/16/09

March Madness has both casual basketball fans and die-hards alike filling out brackets and entering office pools around the country this morning. As you are filling out your brackets, here is your region-by-region breakdown of upsets to pick and avoid, sleeper teams, best first round games to watch, and more.

East Region

1. Can Anyone Stop Pitt?

The Panthers, who have not had recent NCAA Tournament success of late, are favored to make it out of the East region, primarily due to potential matchups. The Panthers have the toughest guard combos of 2-4 seeds in their bracket, but DeJuan Blair could terrorize Duke in the paint, they are very familiar with Villanova, and have too much talent to succumb to Xavier. If there was a year that Pitt could break through to the Final Four, this would be it.

2. Best First Round Match is...

Texas vs. Minnesota. In a bracket that has other attractive first round games, such as the favored upset pick in UCLA/VCU, the underperforming Texas Longhorns, who have a roster full of talent, take on Tubby Smith and the Golden Gophers of Minnesota. Rick Barnes and Tubby Smith are two of the best coaches in the country, and the contrast in styles of these two teams will be worth paying attention too.

3. Upset Pick to Avoid...

VCU vs. UCLA. As I was watching the Selection Show yesterday, I even got caught up in the "experts'" immediate predictions of VCU knocking out the Bruins. Then I started really breaking down info, thinking about how UCLA could match up against VCU, and realized the better team is UCLA, and Darren Collison will neutralize Eric Maynor, giving UCLA enough to survive to the second round in Philly.

4. Upset Pick No one would pick...

Tennessee over Pitt in second round. The Vols are very streaky, and if they get past Oklahoma State in the first round, they will be playing with house money heading into the Pitt game. The Panthers, meanwhile, have the pressure of a No. 1 seed on their shoulders, and I am curious to see how they perform in a tie game on a neutral floor with their season on the line and two minutes to go. We may not have to wait long to see that scenario play out.

5. My Final Four favorite is...

With all that being said, I think a Big East team will make it out of the East bracket, but it won’t be Pitt. Villanova is the best team no one pays attention to in that conference, and the backcourt play of Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding is among the best in the country. Their potential matchups of UCLA and Duke before a Pitt showdown in the Elite Eight will test them, but an East Regional Final of Nova/Pitt could be a classic.

South Region

1. Can Anyone Stop North Carolina?

The Tar Heels have the easiest road to the Final Four of all the No. 1 seeds, but there are still a few bumps in the road for Roy Williams to get his guys to Detroit. Blake Griffin and Oklahoma loom as the obvious roadblock to the Final Four; however, a Syracuse/North Carolina regional final would have the score into the 90s as well.

2. Best First Round Match is...

Clemson vs. Michigan. The Wolverines were thought to be a mild bubble team heading into last week. However, their strong out of conference play allowed them to secure a 10 seed. The contrast in play between Michigan and Clemson will be cause for a very entertaining game that should go down to the wire.

3. Upset Pick to Avoid...

Temple over Arizona State. Temple comes in hot, as winners of the Atlantic 10 Tournament, and seemingly on the way up. Arizona State has not been in the NCAA Tournament since 2003, yet their return includes the best player on the court when these two teams matchup, and that is future NBA lottery pick James Harden.

4. Upset Pick No one would pick...

Western Kentucky over Gonzaga. The Zags used to be a Cinderella, but they are now a consistent lock in the NCAA Tournament, and should be favored until the Sweet 16. Western Kentucky could surprise some by knocking off Illinois and Gonzaga, only to earn a date with North Carolina

5. My Final Four Favorite is...

North Carolina. The Tar Heels, with a healthy Ty Lawson, would make the Final Four with no issue. Even with Lawson not at 100 percent, Carolina has too much talent to not get to Detroit.

Midwest Region

1. Can Anyone Stop Louisville?

To be the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, the committee didn’t do Rick Pitino any favors with his draw—a bracket which has Michigan State, the defending national champs (Kansas), a very streaky ACC team (Wake Forest), and bracket busters (Siena, Dayton) all in there.

2. Best First Round Match is...

Boston College vs. USC. The Trojans, who come in as a 10 seed, are favored in Vegas as of this morning over the tournament-tested Eagles. However, BC comes into this game with plenty to prove. Another contrast of coaching styles will produce another great game.

3. Upset Pick to Avoid...

Arizona over Wake Forest. If you are picking Arizona over Wake, that means you are picking Arizona to beat Utah. Nearly everyone is picking the Wildcats to beat Utah, which, of course, means Utah will win. Wake Forest has one of the best players in the entire tournament in guard Jeff Teague, and he will get his team refocused to make it to the Sweet 16.

4. Upset Pick No one would pick...

West Virginia over Michigan State. The bottom half of this bracket could see plenty of mild upsets, but anyone who has the Mountaineers in the Elite Eight would be going out on a limb in their office pool.

5. My Final Four favorite is...

Louisville. Too much Terrence Williams, Earl Clark, and Edgar Sosa for any team in this bracket. It also helps that nearly five months ago I picked Louisville to win the national title.

West Region

1. Can Anyone Stop UConn?

Yes. Memphis. That is it. The Huskies and Tigers are on a collision course in the Elite Eight, as both should only receive a challenge in the Sweet 16.

2. Best First Round Match is...

Washington vs. Mississippi State. The Bulldogs aren’t supposed to be here, but they won the SEC Tournament and certainly will not fear Washington in the first round. The Huskies “should” win this game, but...

3. Upset Pick to Avoid...

Maryland over Cal. The office pool “East Coast Bias” will set in here, but as LayupDrill.com contributing writer “Flyin” Brian Jones states, Cal has one of the most underrated guards (junior Jerome Randle) and teams in the nation, and they match up very well against Gary Williams' Terps.

4. Upset Pick no one would pick...

Cornell over Missouri. This would be one of those games that you see the score go across the ticker at the bottom of your TV, and you start getting sick, because you have the Tigers going deep in your pool. Stranger things have happened though.

5. My Final Four favorite is...

Memphis. UConn and Memphis are pretty even, and though the Huskies cause matchup problems with Hasheem Thabeet in the middle, Memphis tasted the Final Four last year, and UConn has not had serious postseason success in a while.

There you have it—my “unofficial” Final Four is Louisville, Memphis, North Carolina, and Villanova. The “official” picks for the entire tournament of myself, along with some very special guest college basketball experts, will be posted right here Thursday morning, just in time for the first set of games.

If you haven’t already, make sure you join our Yahoo! March Madness Pick’Em Challenge here: LayupDrill.com March Madness Challenge on Yahoo!