Updated Playoff Odds for Every Team After NFL Week 9

Who would have thought that the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts would be playing together in the biggest game of Week 9? Just imagine that statement even five weeks ago. As hard as it might be to imagine, that game pitted two teams that were, as of kickoff, top-six teams in the AFC.

Meanwhile, nearly every other game turned out as expected. Contenders continued to take care of business against pretenders. In reality, not much is going to change as it relates to my playoff odds following Week 9.

With that in mind, I do have a couple surprises up my sleeve. Might have something to do with the venerable Mr. Andrew Luck, but we shall see.

Either way, check them out.

Denver Broncos

Record: 5-3

Postseason Chances: 75 percent

It might not have been as pretty as we have seen in the past, but the Denver Broncos got the job done against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.

Peyton Manning has now thrown three touchdowns in each of his last five games. In the process, he has shown us that the Pro Bowl quarterback from two years ago is back at full force. You simply cannot discount his impact on Denver at this point. It is a completely different team with the future Hall of Fame quarterback at the helm.

The scary thing here is that this Denver Broncos team seems to have more talent outside of Manning than a majority of the Indianapolis Colts teams that he played for.

As I mentioned last week, Denver only has one game remaining against a team currently over .500. That stands even after both the San Diego Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, two of Denver's remaining opponents, won this week.

San Diego Chargers

Record: 4-4

Postseason Chances: 40 percent

The San Diego Chargers chose the game that could have sent Norv Turner packing to have their best overall performance of the season. While San Diego's 31-13 win did come against one of the worst teams in the NFL in the form of the Kansas City Chiefs, it was mighty impressive.

Philip Rivers was nearly perfect and seems to be back on track. Meanwhile, the Chargers defense stood up and forced a total of four Kansas City turnovers.

We all know what San Diego does late in the season, 27-4 under Rivers in December and January in his career. Now that San Diego is at .500, it can look forward to being in the playoff race late in the season. At this point, that is all it could ask for.

Oakland Raiders

Record: 3-5

Postseason Chances: 15 percent

The Oakland Raiders definitely showed a lot of heart against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers yesterday in a valiant comeback effort but fell short at the end when Carson Palmer threw an ill-advised interception late in the game.

Of course, it didn't help that Darren McFadden was lost with a leg injury in the second quarter and backup running back Mike Goodson went down just a little while later. This forced Palmer to put the ball up over 60 times.

That just isn't sustainable.

I love what new general manager Reggie McKenzie is building here. That being said, Oakland seems to be a couple years away from contention in the AFC West. It just doesn't have enough talent from top to bottom at this point.

Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 1-7

Postseason Chances: Two percent

Last week, I wrote an article that indicated Kansas City Chiefs head coach Romeo Crennel was firmly entrenched on the proverbial hot seat. This column was published immediately after their embarrassing loss to the San Diego Chargers on Thursday night.

In reality, Kansas City is one of the most disappointing teams in the recent history of the National Football League. It has the talent to contend for the division crown but continues to struggle in nearly every aspect of the game on a consistent basis.

Matt Cassel isn't the answer at quarterback, and Crennel will probably be fired from his head-coaching position in the near future.

Oh, this doesn't even take into account the fact that Kansas City has now turned the ball over 29 times in eight games. That is definitely not the way to win actual football games on Sunday.

Houston Texans

Record: 7-1

Postseason Chances: 95 percent

I doubt anyone really expected the Buffalo Bills to give this Houston Texans team much of a fight yesterday, but they most definitely did. In fact, it could be said that Buffalo dominated the trenches in this game—not a good sign for Houston.

That being said, the Texans are still 7-1 and possess the best record in the AFC.

With the type of defense that Houston has, there is absolutely no reason to believe that it won't be able to win 12 or 13 games and capture a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Its success in the second season will be all about Matt Schaub and the passing game. If he continues to perform the way we have seen this season, Houston could easily grab the AFC championship.

Indianapolis Colts

Record: 5-3

Postseason Chances: 60 percent

Call it "ChuckStrong" or something else, but these Indianapolis Colts are simply playing some really good football right now. Of course, it doesn't hurt that Andrew Luck is on pace to absolutely destroy the rookie yardage record.

The No. 1 overall pick is currently on pace for 4,800 passing yards and 26 total touchdowns after a record-setting performance against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

It remains to be seen whether Indianapolis will fizzle out in the second half of the season, but it has to be considered the story of 2012 in the NFL up to this point.

What a difference Luck has made in terms of the confidence and play of a team that won a total of two games last season. It is apparent on both sides of the ball, in the locker room and on the sidelines.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Indianapolis sneak into the playoffs as a wild-card team.

Tennessee Titans

Record: 3-6

Postseason Chances: Five percent

The Tennessee Titans were down 28-2 early against the Chicago Bears on Sunday despite yielding less than 40 yards at that point. This just goes to show you how badly they actually played on the offensive side of the ball and on special teams.

Couple that with one of the worst all-around defenses in the NFL, and you have the makings of a long season in Nashville.

They have now lost six of their first nine games and are nearly completely out of the AFC playoff picture after just nine weeks. This has to be disappointing for a team that had playoff expectations coming into the year.

Titans owner Bud Adams had the following to say (via Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com) about the state of his franchise after the 51-20 loss to Chicago:

"

At this time, all aspects of the organization will be closely evaluated, including front office, coaches and players over the next seven games. If performance and competitiveness does not improve, I will look at all alternatives to get back to having the Titans become a playoff and championship football team.

"

Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 1-7

Postseason Chances: One percent

Embarrassing in every single way pretty much sums up Sunday for the Jacksonville Jaguars and their fans. Despite some nifty-looking black uniforms that remind me a lot of the Miami Sharks, the Jaguars definitely didn't play up to the expectations of Tony D'Amato either.

It is becoming increasingly evident that Jacksonville lacks the necessary talent to compete on a consistent basis. Its defense allowed three Mikel Leshoure rushing touchdowns in the first half alone as the Detroit Lions rolled to an impressive 31-14 victory.

The Jaguars have now been outscored by an average of 23 points in their four home games this season. That just isn't acceptable for a team looking to rebuild.

Baltimore Ravens

Record: 6-2

Playoff Chances: 70 percent

For the fifth consecutive game, the Baltimore Ravens were far from impressive. They let a subpar Cleveland Browns team stick around for over three quarters yesterday, struggling to get a whole lot going on the offensive side of the ball during that span.

While the Ravens defense was much more impressive against the pass, they just seem to be struggling to play up to the level that their talent suggests.

Trent Richardson had over 100 yards on the ground, while both Greg Little and Josh Gordon were mighty good on the outside against lackluster Baltimore cornerbacks. In fact, the two young receivers compiled seven catches for 90 yards on just 10 targets.

Joe Flacco didn't make any glaring mistakes but also struggled with accuracy to the outside. The good news is that offensive coordinator Cam Cameron finally made the decision to focus more on the running game and Ray Rice. The running back carried the ball 25 times for nearly 100 yards and a touchdown.

The Ravens, who hold a one-game advantage in the AFC North, have two more games remaining against their closest competitors in the form of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

They also have a total of four games remaining against teams that are currently over .500. If the Ravens cannot break away against the likes of the Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs, it is hard to imagine them actually being able to have consistent success against better teams.

In short, Flacco and company need to improve over the coming weeks if they want to be considered serious conference championship contenders.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 5-3

Postseason Chances: 60 percent

Just when the Pittsburgh Steelers were looking like they were about to take a step back and become nothing more than a mediocre football team, they come up with three mighty impressive wins in a row. 

The latest came against the New York Giants yesterday. Ben Roethlisberger led his team back from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to defeat the defending Super Bowl champions.

Pittsburgh is now 5-3 and in the thick of the NFC North race, just one game behind the Baltimore Ravens. It also goes up against those very same Ravens twice more this season.

There still has to be concern here. Roethlisberger was sacked four times against one of the best fronts in the NFL. He was continually harassed and slow to get up a few times. In order for Pittsburgh to make a run in the AFC, it needs to keep its quarterback upright and on the football field.

Cincinnati Bengals

Record: 3-5

Postseason Chances: 20 percent

You cannot lose four games in a row and expect to contend in the AFC North. This is what the Cincinnati Bengals are facing right now after a horrible stretch of performances over the course of the last month.

While Cincinnati did stick with the Denver Broncos for over three quarters on Sunday, it just wasn't able to come through with the game on the line. Instead, the Bengals defense allowed two fourth-quarter touchdown drives to Peyton Manning and company.

Overall, the Broncos recorded over 350 total yards and converted nearly 65 percent of their third downs. Simply put, Cincinnati struggled getting off the field again.

Cincinnati now hosts the New York Giants next week in what has to be considered a must-win game for a team that had playoff expectations heading into the season. A loss here would pretty much end any hopes of a second consecutive postseason appearance.

Cleveland Browns

Record: 2-7

Postseason Chances: Two percent

Once again, the Cleveland Browns remained competitive against a far superior opponent. Once again, they were unable to pull out an upset victory.

Cleveland's seven losses have now come by an average of just over seven points. While these are moral victories for a young team still attempting to find itself, the Browns have lost seven of their nine outings and are 6-19 under head coach Pat Shurmur.

It goes without saying that this team isn't in position to contend for a postseason spot, but the pieces are definitely in place. Despite struggling for the second consecutive game, rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden has been much better than most people thought he would be entering the season.

Trent Richardson has the look of a future Pro Bowl running back, while Josh Gordon has been much better than advertised at wide receiver.

It is all about building more talent on both sides of the ball and maturing as a unit.

New England Patriots

Record: 5-3

Postseason Chances: 80 percent

The New England Patriots were on a bye this week. They are coming off an extremely impressive performance against the St. Louis Rams in London in Week 8. It seems that their offense is clicking on all cylinders at this point as Stevan Ridley continues to prove himself to be one of the most productive running backs in the NFL.

With more balance on the offensive side of the ball, it is hard to imagine any AFC team, the Houston Texans included, being able to beat New England in the playoffs.

Coming off four wins in five games, New England has a mighty tough schedule moving forward. Five of its final eight opponents are currently at .500 or better, including a two-week stretch against the aforementioned Texans as well as the San Francisco 49ers.

Miami Dolphins

Record: 4-4

Postseason Chances: 50 percent

The key to the Miami Dolphins' chances at making the playoffs isn't Ryan Tannehill. Instead, their pass defense must step up if this team is going to surprise the football world and earn a postseason spot.

Miami yielded a rookie-record 433 passing yards to Andrew Luck on Sunday and has now given up an average of nearly 300 yards through the air per game, ranking it 29th in the NFL.

That is not sustainable moving forward, considering that the Dolphins will be going up against both the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots twice more in the final half of the season.

For his part, Tannehill has been doing everything right leading Miami's offense. While it might not show up in terms of statistics, the rookie is way ahead of the curve at this point in his career.

The simple fact that Miami will most likely be in playoff contention in December speaks volumes to the job Joe Philbin has done in his first season as its head coach.

New York Jets

Record: 3-5

Postseason Chances: 15 percent

The New York Jets had a bye in Week 9 following a disastrous 30-9 loss to the Miami Dolphins. The Jets have now lost four of five, which has taken them completely out of the AFC playoff picture.

Mark Sanchez continues to struggle at the quarterback position, while their defense just doesn't seem to be getting it done on a consistent basis...mostly against the run.

At this point, New York lacks the necessary talent from top to bottom to contend for a postseason spot. It has three tough games coming up against the Seattle Seahawks and St. Louis Rams, both on the road, as well as the New England Patriots at home.

Anything short of two wins in that three-game stretch will probably force Rex Ryan and company into looking toward the future.

Buffalo Bills

Record: 3-5

Postseason Chances: 10 percent

The good news is that the Buffalo Bills defense improved a great deal against the Houston Texans on Sunday. The bad news is that this improvement came from being one of the worst overall defenses in the National Football League through the first eight weeks of the season.

Houston was still able to compile 374 total yards and score three touchdowns.

Meanwhile, Buffalo's offense only tallied three Rian Lindell field goals, as it went away from the run early and often. C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson ran the ball a total of 12 times, while Ryan Fitzpatrick put it up nearly 40 times. That type of imbalance just isn't going to work.

As it is, Buffalo is on pace for another double-digit-loss season with the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts as its next three opponents.

San Francisco 49ers

Record: 6-2

Postseason Chances: 80 percent

The San Francisco 49ers were on a bye this week after taking care of the Arizona Cardinals to the tune of 24-3 in Week 8. San Francisco now ranks first in scoring defense, second against the pass and second in overall defense.

With that type of domination on one side of the ball, it isn't hard to believe that San Francisco is where it is right now through the first half of the season.

It will now look to build on Alex Smith's 18-of-19 performance last week on offense. If San Francisco can continue to get that production on offense, it will be nearly impossible to beat moving forward.

Seattle Seahawks

Record: 5-4

Postseason Chances: 45 percent

Russell Wilson was impressive once again on Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings. He threw three touchdowns and led the Seattle Seahawks to 30 points against a pretty darn good defense.

That being said, Seattle struggled on the defensive side of the ball for the third time in four games. Minnesota racked up 243 yards on the ground as Adrian Peterson ran roughshod against one of the best fronts in the NFL.

Following what should be a win at home against the New York Jets next week, Seattle will take a bye before having to travel to take on the Miami Dolphins and Chicago Bears on the road. It needs to come away 2-1 during this stretch in order to be a viable contender in the NFC.

Arizona Cardinals

Record: 4-5

Postseason Chances: 15 percent

The Arizona Cardinals are done. Stick a fork in them. You simply cannot lose five consecutive games in the NFC and expect to contend for a postseason spot into December. In reality, Arizona must now go 6-1 in its final seven games to even have a shot at the playoffs.

Arizona quarterbacks have now been sacked 41 times in nine games, which isn't sustainable considering the mediocre play from that position this season.

Additionally, the talk of Arizona having a stout defense must end right now. It gave up nearly 400 yards and 31 points against the Green Bay Packers, following a performance that saw it yield 18-of-19 passing to Alex Smith a week prior.

It is becoming increasingly evident that the class of the NFC West is San Francisco and Seattle, which leaves this team out in the cold.

St. Louis Rams

Record: 3-5

Postseason Chances: 10 percent

The St. Louis Rams were on a bye this week and have to travel to take on the San Francisco 49ers next week. A loss at Candlestick would pretty much end any hope of this team making a surprise visit to the postseason.

They have been more than competitive in a majority of their games but struggled a great deal against a far superior New England Patriots team last week in London. Sam Bradford doesn't have the necessary weapons to open up the passing game, while Steven Jackson seems to have lost a few steps from last season.

Defensively, St. Louis is improved a great deal with the additions of both Janoris Jenkins and Cortland Finnegan in the secondary. Chris Long and Robert Quinn also seem to be progressing as a dominating pass-rush tandem.

Still, it appears this team is a year away from contention in the NFC West.

Atlanta Falcons

Record: 8-0

Postseason Chances: 100 percent

Some may conclude that the Atlanta Falcons have yet to face stiff competition this season. They have just one win against teams that are currently over .500. That being said, you can only play the opponents on your schedule.

On that note, Atlanta's path to a perfect record is pretty easy moving forward. It only has one game remaining against a team that is over .500 (New York Giants).

I just worry about complacency at this point. Atlanta has not played its best ball over the course of the last four games and needs to keep improving on both sides of the ball in order to maintain its status as the best team in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record: 4-4

Postseason Chances: 30 percent

Doug Martin, Doug Martin and just a little more Doug Martin. The 2012 first-round pick has been beyond insane in the last two games. Think about this for a second: Martin has racked up 486 total yards and six touchdowns during that span. Just wow!

If Tampa Bay can find success both through the air and on the ground moving forward this season, it is going to be one dangerous team. Josh Freeman has been beyond excellent, throwing 11 touchdowns compared to one interception over the course of the last four games. In short, Tampa has the makings of one dynamic offense.

The Buccaneers now have two winnable games in a row against the San Diego Chargers and Carolina Panthers prior to an NFC South matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. If they can go into that game with a 6-4 record, anything is possible.

New Orleans Saints

Record: 3-5 

Playoff Chances: 15 percent

Monday represented the best performance for this New Orleans Saints team all season long. Their defense came through big time, scoring a touchdown and recording seven sacks on Michael Vick. 

As is the case on a consistent basis, Drew Brees and the Saints' offense did enough to play winning football. He completed 21-of-27 passes for two touchdowns and zero interceptions. 

It was all about pressure on the defensive side of the ball and a strong level of balance on offense that allowed New Orleans to keep its slim playoff hopes alive. 

The Saints are still under the proverbial eight ball at 3-5. They are most likely going to have to win seven of their final nine in order to earn a wild card spot. At the very least, New Orleans succeeded in making sure it postseason hopes didn't end completely on Monday. 

Carolina Panthers

Record: 2-6

Postseason Chances: Five percent

DeAngelo Williams and company might be impressed with a victory over the Washington Redskins on Sunday, only the second of the season for the Carolina Panthers. But the fact remains that they are 2-6 through eight games and completely out of the NFC playoff race.

The young talent is definitely there on both sides of the ball. Cam Newton, despite a down sophomore campaign, is going to be a dynamic player moving forward. As with the rest of this squad, he just needs to mature in order for Carolina to be taken seriously.

It is all about gaining experience and growing as a unit. Until then, Carolina will be boom or bust.

Chicago Bears

Record: 7-1

Postseason Chances: 90 percent

Talk about strength of schedule all you want; the Chicago Bears have been beating the snot out of their opponents this season. Their latest victim was a Tennessee Titans team that just didn't seem to be ready for a physical fight.

Chicago opened up a can in the first quarter and never looked back. It scored a touchdown on both special teams and defense in a 51-20 blowout.

The Bears now have five wins of at least 16 points and possess the second-best record in the entire National Football League.

With that in mind, there are still a myriad of questions for this team in terms of its chances to capture the NFC. Jay Cutler has now been sacked 14 times in the last three games, which represents a regression in terms of pass protection from a talent-stricken offensive line.

Chicago also must now go up against the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers in its next two games. We will know by then where this team stands in terms of contention in the NFC moving forward.

Green Bay Packers

Record: 6-3

Postseason Chances: 65 percent

If Aaron Rodgers plays the rest of the season like he has the last few weeks, the Green Bay Packers are going to be one dangerous team heading into January. The reigning NFL MVP has thrown 22 touchdowns compared to three interceptions in the last six games, representing the exact same play we saw last season from him.

It really doesn't matter if Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson are out there either. The likes of Randall Cobb and James Jones have stepped up a great deal.

Defensively, Green Bay is one of the most improved units in the NFL. It ranks 20th in the NFL in yards against through the air but has 10 interceptions through nine games and is holding opposing quarterbacks to a substandard 78.7 quarterback rating.

At 6-3, Green Bay currently possesses the first wild-card spot in the NFC. Don't expect that to change any time soon. More importantly, it could contend for the division title with the Chicago Bears.

Minnesota Vikings

Record: 5-4

Postseason Chances: 20 percent

While the Minnesota Vikings do possess a winning record, they are in a precarious position. Christian Ponder has now thrown eight interceptions in his last five games and is coming off a disastrous 63-yard performance against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.

Despite stellar play from Adrian Peterson, who leads the NFL in rushing, Minnesota will not stay in the playoff race if it doesn't get better play from the quarterback position.

Minnesota's schedule is also a major issue. It has both the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers twice as well as the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions in the final seven games of the season.

At this point, the Vikings will be lucky to finish with a winning record.

Detroit Lions

Record: 4-4

Postseason Chances: 25 percent

The Detroit Lions put themselves behind the proverbial eight ball after losing three of their first four games. At that point, it seemed Matthew Stafford and company were going to struggle through what was supposed to be another playoff year.

Detroit has now won three of its last four games and is in the thick of the NFC playoff race.

Mikel Leshoure scored three first-half touchdowns in a 31-14 beatdown of the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. If Detroit can get that type of production from its starting running back, you can expect continued progression on the offensive side of the ball.

Despite recent success, the Lions still have a huge hill to climb. They are most likely going to have to win six of their final eight games in order to sneak into the postseason in the NFC. That is a tough task, considering that they have the Green Bay Packers (twice), Chicago Bears, Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts remaining on the schedule.

New York Giants

Record: 6-3

Postseason Chances: 70 percent

That was definitely a tough loss for the defending Super Bowl champions on Sunday. They were leading the Pittsburgh Steelers by double digits in the fourth quarter but found a way to lose the game at home.

Championship teams just don't blow that type of lead.

Again, it comes down to regular-season consistency for the New York Giants. They can go into San Francisco and destroy a talented 49ers team but then lay an egg at home against Pittsburgh. Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

New York is still well ahead in the NFC East and should roll into the playoffs as division winners. It just remains to be seen whether the Giants will have a first-round bye or not. Right now, they are behind the Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears and 49ers for that distinction but hold the tiebreaker with the latter.

Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 3-5

Postseason Chances: 15 percent

Once again, the Philadelphia Eagles failed to play solid all-around football and the result was a 28-13 loss to the New Orleans Saints on Monday night. This loss cannot be blamed on Michael Vick, who was sacked a total of seven times by a New Orleans defense that had accumulated only 13 in its first seven games. 

Vick did have an interception returned for a touchdown near the end zone, but he was continually harassed by a hungry Saints' front seven. 

Meanwhile, coaching left a lot to be desired in this one as well. LeSean McCoy would touch the ball just three times in a four drive stretch that spanned the second and third quarters. At one instance, Philadelphia threw the ball thee consecutive times in the red zone against one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. 

In short, it just wasn't a pretty performance by the Eagles. 

They now go up against the Dallas Cowboys in a Week 10 game that will leave the loser completely out of the playoff race. 

Dallas Cowboys

Record: 3-5

Postseason Chances: 10 percent

Progression is good in the NFL, but not enough if you are a Dallas Cowboys team that came into the season with playoff expectations. Tony Romo played flawless ball as Dallas kept it close against an undefeated Atlanta Falcons team in the Georgia Dome.

However, bad tackling, a couple dropped passes and questionable play-calling led to another defeat for Jason Garrett and company. They now stand at 3-5 and are on the outside looking in as it relates to the NFC playoff picture.

Dallas now needs to win six or seven of its final eight games to even consider making the playoffs. The good news is that it only has one game remaining against a team over .500.

It is now all about taking that progression we have seen and turning it into a fairly large winning streak. If that doesn't happen, Dallas will miss the playoffs, and there will be plenty of changes in the offseason.

Washington Redskins

Record: 3-6

Postseason Chances: Five percent

The Washington Redskins really needed to win that game Sunday if they wanted to remain in the playoff picture. Instead of going into the bye with a 4-5 record, Washington now sits in last place in the NFC East, three games under .500.

Of course, no one even considered the Redskins a legit playoff contender entering the season. It was all about getting Robert Griffin III the necessary snaps and building a young foundation moving forward. In that case, Washington is definitely headed in the right direction.

Follow me on Twitter @VincentFrankNFL

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