NFC South: Is the Division Race Over?

In 2012, the NFC South was expected to be a four-team race. Yet with only seven games played, the Atlanta Falcons have a sizable lead on the rest of division. But with the majority of the season still to play, it would seem ludicrous to hand the division crown to anyone, and no team has been mathematically eliminated.

While a daunting task, here is a look at what each team must do to win the division. 

4. Carolina Panthers (1-6)

The Carolina Panthers entered 2012 with hopes of riding Cam Newton all the way to glory. Those hopes have been dashed by a 1-6 start and a 1-2 division record.

The Panthers have found themselves on the wrong side of last-minute comebacks this year, and that might actually give them hope for a stronger finish. But taking the NFC South crown might be out of the realm of possibility.

With one game left with each division rival, the Panthers would most likely have to run the table to take the top spot.

Best-Case Scenario

Carolina Panthers win nine straight (record 10-6).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers go 6-3 (record 9-7).

New Orleans Saints go 7-2 (record 9-7).

Atlanta Falcons go 2-7 (record 9-7).

3. New Orleans Saints (2-5)

The New Orleans Saints expected some turbulence entering the 2012 regular season. They also expected their veteran quarterback, Drew Brees, to see them through it. What they did not expect was an 0-4 start.

Despite a blowout loss to the Denver Broncos, the Saints have somewhat righted the ship by going 2-1 since then. They still have four division games left, including two against the division-leading Atlanta Falcons.

This provides a possible, but not probable, path to another NFC South title.

Best-Case Scenario

New Orleans Saints win at least eight of nine (record 10-6).

Carolina Panthers lose at least one more (record 9-7).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose at least three more (record 9-7).

Atlanta Falcons go 2-7 (record 9-7).

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)

With new coach Greg Schiano at the helm, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were hoping for a quick turnaround in 2012. With nine left to play, Tampa Bay is within striking distance of .500 and 1-1 in the division.

Tampa Bay may have an uphill battle, but they also have the most realistic chance of catching the Atlanta Falcons. Trailing by four games, Tampa Bay will face the Falcons twice in the final half of the season.

Best-Case Scenario

Tampa Bay Buccaneers win at least seven of nine (record 10-6).

Carolina Panthers lose at least one more game (record 9-7).

New Orleans Saints lose at least two more games (record 9-7).

Atlanta Falcons lose at least seven games (record 9-7).

1. Atlanta Falcons (7-0)

Not even the Atlanta Falcons themselves could have envisioned a 7-0 start to the 2012 season. But with a strong four-game lead, the Falcons find themselves in complete control of their own destiny.

The back end of the Falcons' schedule is full of divisional contests. The Falcons actually have five division contests in the final nine games. Two of these are against the second-place Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons will need to win the first one in order to clinch the division early.

Best-Case Scenario

Atlanta Falcons win five or more games (record 12-4).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose at least one game (record 11-5).

If the Falcons finish 12-4, the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers would be mathematically eliminated.