Projecting the Field of 65: March 14

Watching a single-overtime game in person is almost as good as watching a six-OT contest on TV.  Well, not really.  But enough about my love of Syracuse basketball.

With just a day left until Selection Sunday, I have 13 teams battling it out for the final six spots.

Eliminated from consideration on Friday were Florida (lost to Auburn), Virginia Tech (lost to North Carolina), and Kentucky (lost to LSU). 

Bubble teams moving to lock status yesterday were Ohio State (beat Wisconsin) and San Diego State (beat BYU).

Of those remaining 13, the six that I have in are: Saint Mary's, Creighton, Temple, Auburn, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

My first seven out are: UNLV, South Carolina, New Mexico, Penn State, USC, Arizona and Maryland.

Today's projections will be slightly different in that I will only discuss those 13 teams and why I have some in and others out.

Creighton (IN) 

The Bluejays are among the top six bubble teams in seven of the eight significant statistical categories. 

They won nine of their last ten, were 11-5 away from home and while they were just 2-2 versus the top 50, the MVC school was an impressive 9-5 against the top 100. 

Creighton beat fellow bubble New Mexico and conference champ Northern Iowa, but the victory that gets it in is an 18-point shellacking of Dayton back on Dec. 10.

Saint Mary's (IN) 

The Gaels meaningless game against Eastern Washington on Friday night had no impact on my decision, although some committee members might've been impressed by Patty Mills scoring 19 on 4 for 9 shooting from beyond the arc. 

I have Saint Mary's in because it managed to win 40 percent of its games against top 50 opponents and three of seven versus top 100 teams. 

When you don't get that many chances against elite competition, you have to make the most of them and I believe the Gaels did.  Barely.  The win over San Diego State is looking much better now that the Aztecs have beaten BYU to reach the MWC final. 

The Gaels also beat fellow bubble Utah State, which is in the WAC final, and Providence.  Finally, their 13-5 road/neutral record is the best among all bubbles.

Temple (IN)

You may have questioned me when I had the Owls in yesterday, but after they beat top-seeded Xavier in the A-10 semis, you can't deny the fact that Temple is deserving. 

A win over Duquesne in the final today would give the Owls an automatic bid, but if they lose, I think they're still in okay shape. 

They have strong computer numbers (RPI 34, SOS 43), are 12-9 in road/neutral games and have won eight of ten.  I would wrap up the auto bid to be safe, though.

Auburn (IN) 

The Tigers enter the field with an elimination game win over Florida on Friday, but their work isn't done yet.  A victory over Tennessee in the SEC semis would go a long way to locking up a bid, but there's no denying the Tigers are hot.  They've won nine of ten, including a win over LSU.

Wisconsin (IN)

The Badgers could've locked things up with a win over Ohio State in the Big Ten quarters, but a loss leaves them muddled in with the rest of the bubbles. 

The 4-10 mark against the top 50 isn't good, but 9-11 versus the top 100 is, as are their computer numbers (RPI 44, SOS 14).  Wisconsin has won seven of ten.

Minnesota (IN)

Minnesota did the right thing by beating Northwestern on Thursday but the Gophers couldn't seal the deal with a win over Michigan State. 

I still have them in, though, for the same reason as Wisconsin.  They're 9-10 against the top 100, have an RPI of 40 and a SOS of 33.

UNLV (OUT)

The Rebels are my first team out after losing for the third time to San Diego State Thursday.  They will be an interesting case on Sunday.

Despite good non-conference wins over Louisville and Arizona, the Rebels' three losses to SDSU, two of which were at home, combined with terrible losses to TCU, Wyoming, and Colorado State, may keep them out of the field. 

Their computer numbers (RPI 65, SOS 81) are not good and they've only won four of their last 10.

South Carolina (OUT)

The Gamecocks' brief stay in my field ended Friday with an upset loss to Mississippi State.  With Florida dropping out of the top 50, South Carolina is now 0-4 against the nation's best teams and a 93 strength of schedule won't help matters.

New Mexico (OUT)

UNM's upset loss to Wyoming could prove very costly. The Lobos' computer numbers drop to an RPI of 66 and a SOS of 79, and they have bad non-conference losses to UCF, Drake, and Texas Tech.

Penn State (OUT)

The Nittany Lions didn't just lose to Purdue, they got blown out by 14 and now sit squarely on the bubble.  A 6-9 record against the top 50 is good, but I don't think it's as good as, say, a 4-5 mark or even a 2-2 or 2-3 record. 

When you get that many chances against top competition, you're bound to win a few.  As a Syracuse fan, I know all too well how the committee hates a bad non-conference schedule. 

That's what kept the Orange out in 2007.  PSU's eight games against RPI sub-200 teams has its computer numbers looking weak (RPI 68, SOS 87).

USC (OUT)

The Trojans are making a run at the Big Dance, but I don't think they're there yet.  USC beat rival UCLA to reach today's Pac-10 final against Arizona State, but Southern Cal may need to win that game to get in. 

A 4-8 record against the top 50 and a 5-10 mark away from home have the Trojans on the outside looking in.

Arizona (OUT)

Fellow Pac-10'er Arizona may be in even worse shape after losing to ASU in the quarters Thursday.  Like Penn State, the Wildcats have six top 50 wins but they also have ten top 50 losses. 

An RPI of 63 and a 5-10 record away from home has them out of my field.

Maryland (OUT)

A lot of people have the Terps in after their upset win over Wake Forest in the ACC quarters Friday, but I don't think they're there yet. All of their numbers are mediocre: 7-9 in conference, RPI of 49 and 4-7 versus the top 50. 

They have great wins over Michigan State, Michigan and UNC, but they've also lost to Morgan State and Virginia.  A win over Duke today would go a long way.

Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man"is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at [e-mail]