Oregon vs. USC: An Early Breakdown of the Pac-12 Game of the Year (Part I)

Both the Oregon Ducks and the USC Trojans are the prohibitive favorites to represent the North and South in the 2012 Pac-12 Championship.

I know, Beaver fans, it's not official until you have your say but can you just play along with this whole premise? You'll get your shot to make us all look like idiots on November 24.

So anyway, how would USC and Oregon match up against each other? 

I've taken the liberty of looking at both teams in offense, defense, special teams, coaching and a couple of intangibles. 

Because it's never too early to look ahead, right? 

Offense: USC

USC has a four-year starter in Matt Barkley and two outstanding receivers in Marqise Lee and Robert Woods. In fact, with DJ Morgan and Silas Redd in the back field and Xavier Grimble and a now-healthy Randall Telfer at tight end, the Trojan offensive skill players are second-to-none.

The O-line is anchored by center Khaled Holmes but there is youth or inexperience everywhere else. Barkley has been sacked nine times this season. 

Left tackle Aundrey Walker is injured and it appears that Max Tuerk, a true freshman, will be taking his place at Arizona this week.

If that holds true for the rest of the season, USC is in trouble—in its game against Colorado, right tackle Kevin Graf got beat by a Buffalo defender who caused Matt Barkley to fumble the ball. 

Khaled Holmes may be able to help one tackle, but he can't help out both tackles at the same time. 

Offense: Oregon

Oregon's offense is a gorgeous thing to watch unless you're an opposing defensive coordinator. It's a fast-paced, no-huddle spread that is highly-explosive. 

The Ducks' O-line took a big hit when Carson York (due to knee injury) was declared out for the season. They, like the Trojans, average more than one sack per game. The Ducks have actually given up more sacks than USC so far.

Their skill players are out-of-this-world. Running back Kenjon Barner is a sleeper in the Heisman race, averaging a hair under 125 yards a game and De'Anthony Thomas doesn't get a lot of touches, but when he does it's always a fun show. 

Quarterback Marcus Mariota is electric and can run a play-action pass brilliantly, but he is still learning the offense and can make silly mistakes. Against Washington State, Mariota fumbled the ball once (recovered by another Duck) and threw two interceptions.

Ultimately, Oregon has the edge on the offense because of the Ducks' explosive style of play.

Defense: USC

The Trojans' defense was a big question mark coming into this season. The secondary is loaded and there are no problems in that unit, but the linebackers' youth and the defensive line's inexperience was a concern. 

Early in the season the defense held its, own but not without yielding a lot of yards. Monte Kiffin's bend-don't-break style defense, aka Cover 2, is a difficult thing to master but the front seven seemed to have finally jelled. 

Juco-transfer Morgan Breslin already has seven sacks, and true freshman Leonard Williams has 5.5. In fact, two of the seven sack leaders in the Pac-12 are Trojans. 

USC is second among all Pac-12 teams in turnover margin (+9) and its total defense is ranked third in the conference.  

Defense: Oregon

The Ducks have long been accused of not having any defense.

They do have a fairly decent defense—its total defense is smack dab in the middle of the Pac-12 at No. 6. The Ducks are about even with the Trojans in pass defense and a little behind the Trojans in rush defense: USC is ranked No. 3 and Oregon is ranked No. 5. 

The Ducks took a huge hit when safety John Boyett suffered a season-ending injury. Defensive tackle Isaac Remington was suspended indefinitely due to legal issues but there are news reports surfacing that the charges have been dropped and Remington's suspension may be lifted. 

Unlike USC, Oregon has plenty of depth on its roster but the Trojans' front seven is much more of a game-changer than the Ducks' front seven. 

USC gets the edge on defense. 

Special Teams: USC vs Oregon

Oregon's De'Anthony Thomas hasn't taken one to the house yet but he's due. Thomas has returned 10 punts for 150 yards 

USC's Marqise Lee has taken one to the house and averages a little over 25 yards on 12 kick returns.

Field goals can be important to a team, especially when USC plays Oregon. In last year's 38-35 contest, Oregon's Alejandro Maldonado missed a 37-yard field goal attempt in the last five seconds of the game and USC escaped with the win.

Interestingly, USC doesn't have a qualifying punter for statistical analysis because its punter doesn't average at least 3.6 punts per game.

While both teams' kick and punt coverage is very good, it's not great.

Special teams' edge goes to USC due to kicker Andre Heidari's 6-of-9 kicks made vs Oregon's Rob Beard's 4-of-7.  

Coaching: Lane Kiffin vs Chip Kelly

So who gets the nod here? 

Duck head coach Chip Kelly has a lot more toys to play with than Lane Kiffin due to NCAA scholarship restrictions. One key starter getting hurt could elicit Kiffin's Rose Bowl berth hopes going up in flames. 

On the flip side, Kelly plays fast and loose on the field and doesn't even think twice about going for it on fourth down. In his own territory. It's a fast-paced offense which will gas USC's defense since the unit doesn't have a lot of available reserves to relieve the starters. 

Kiffin will undoubtedly try to put some points up early and then run the ball to keep the Ducks' offense off the field and keep his defense rested. 

Kelly will just keep doing what has been successful for him: Run the ball incessantly and take advantage of linebackers crowding the box by throwing it deep. USC's secondary will have to step up, and they should do a a good job of keeping the big play in check. 

Both of these coaches are extremely talented but Lane Kiffin has had a tendency to fall back on some vanilla play-calling at times while Kelly is innovative and aggressive.

Chip Kelly gets the slight, ever-so-slight edge in coaching. 

Intangibles

This year's game is at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum where every one of those 93,000-plus capacity seats will be filled.

USC beat Oregon at Autzen last year and that's an incredible feat since that stadium while small, is extremely noisy and hostile. The Coliseum can get very loud if the team gives its fickle fans reason to make the place inhospitable, but the atmosphere is all dependent on what the Trojans do on the field.

This is the first year that USC has been eligible to play in the post season after a two-year ban from the NCAA.

Matt Barkley came back for a shot at the Rose Bowl and beyond. Also, USC knows Oregon can be beat and USC also knows that Oregon will have revenge on its mind.

With that being said, nothing would make the school happier than to give the NCAA a giant finger and go BCS bowling despite the punitive scholarship restrictions placed on the team. 

USC has the edge here. 

Final Analysis

These teams know each other so there won't be many surprises, and at times may run like an arcade video game.

Oregon will run the ball all over the field with its fleet-footed backs of Barner and DAT. USC's Barkley-to-Woods/Lee combinations will make the highlight reels. 

The biggest questions are who will turn the ball over more, which team's defense will make a big play and which team's special team's unit will make a difference?

All of these factors came into play in last year's game. USC leads Oregon in turnover margin and total defense. This game will be close, just like last year's game, and in close games, a field goal kicker is tantamount to a team's success.

USC's placekicker Andre Heidari is more accurate than Oregon's Rob Beard.

Barring any key injuries—and let's hope both teams remain injury-free—USC should eke out a victory.