Messages to 20 Bubble Teams During Championship Week

As Selection Sunday nears, let's look at 20 bubble teams' fate during Championship Week. Entering Tuesday night, nine automatic bids have already been claimed. So this leaves the 22 other conference champions and 34 at-large teams, half of which are locks already, to find a place in the NCAA Tournament.

The following 20 teams are squarely on the bubble. They are discussed alphabetically, not by how good their chances are of making the NCAA Tournament.

Arizona (19-12, 9-9 Pac-10)

You're in, but barely. Your five quality wins, home wins over Washington, Kansas, UCLA, and San Diego State and a neutral-site win over Gonzaga, keep you ahead of the rest of the bubble teams.

However, you are just 2-9 on the road this season, and have yet to beat Arizona State, whom you play in the first round of the Pac-10 tournament. A win secures your bid; a bad loss eliminates it.

Projection: You are IN as a No. 12 seed

Auburn  (21-10, 10-6 SEC)

Congratulations, Auburn, you have won eight of your last nine games. However, you went 0-3 against South Carolina, Florida, and Kentucky, all of whom are fellow bubble teams. Your best SEC road win was an 18-point win against Mississippi State.

Although you did beat NCAA tournament-locks LSU and Tennessee, your best non-conference win was a two-point win at Virginia.

Projection: You are OUT and need to win the SEC Tournament

Creighton (26-7, 14-4 Missouri Valley)

After your blowout loss to Illinois State in the Missouri Valley Tournament, you still have one of the most deserving bids as any mid-major team on the bubble. With three RPI top-50 wins, nine wins against the RPI top-100, and an 8-4 road record, your resume is favorable against teams like Saint Mary's and Davidson.

Is an 18-point home win over Dayton enough, in terms of a signature win, to put you in the tournament?

Projection: You are the first team OUT and need other bubble teams to lose

Davidson (26-7, 16-2 Southern)

You lost to College of Charleston in the semifinals of your conference tournament. You have four losses, Duke, Purdue, Oklahoma, and Butler, against teams who are locks for the NCAA Tournament.

You beat West Virginia without one of its best players. Your case could not be any simpler. Does the committee wish to see you, America's Cinderella, in the dance? Or is it wishful thinking that your resume is comparable to other mid-majors on the bubble?

Projection: You are OUT and need other bubble teams to lose

Florida (22-9, 9-7 SEC)

The lone bright spot on your schedule is a neutral-floor win over Pac-10 champion Washington in late November. But, you won just two SEC road games in eight attempts. You are just 1-3 in your last four games, the lone win against Kentucky at home.

No wins against LSU or Tennessee hurts, and the two-point loss at Georgia doesn't help either.

Projection: You are OUT and need to win the SEC Tournament

Kansas State (21-10, 9-7 Big 12)

You have three RPI top-50 wins. However, your best non-conference wins were against Cleveland State and Oakland. Keeping you in bubble contention is a home win over Missouri and road wins over Texas and Texas A&M.

With the 117th-ranked strength of schedule, the committee is looking for more wins over quality opponents, which could come against Texas in the second round of the conference tournament.

Also, you had three winning streaks of five or more games during the regular season. Perhaps, your a team capable of winning a few in the either the conference or NCAA tournaments.

Projection: You are OUT and need to beat either Kansas or Oklahoma 

Maryland (18-12, 7-9 ACC)

Two signature wins, Michigan State at a neutral site and North Carolina at home, are keeping you afloat among bubble teams. Your only good wins in conference aside from North Carolina were against Miami and Virginia Tech.

A bad home loss to Morgan State also doesn't help, and you were blown out by Gonzaga and Georgetown at neutral sites. 

Projection: You are OUT and need to win two ACC Tournament games 

Miami FL (18-11, 7-9 ACC)

Without a signature non-conference win and just two wins against the RPI top-50, your chances are looking pretty bleak right now. You went just 2-6 in road ACC games. However, two wins over Boston College and home wins versus Florida State and Wake Forest may just save you.

Projection: You are OUT and need to win three ACC Tournament games

Michigan 19-12, 9-9 Big Ten)

Playing the 10th-most difficult schedule in the country, you managed to beat Duke at home and UCLA at a neutral site. You split with Purdue and Illinois, but you were swept by Wisconsin and Ohio State, not to mention you lost to Iowa on the road. Your best Big Ten road win is Minnesota.

But with six and 10 wins against the RPI top-50 and top-100, respectively, you appear to be safe.

Projection: You are IN as a No. 11 seed

Minnesota (21-9, 9-9 Big Ten)

You have zero bad losses. You beat Louisville. Everything looks good with the exception of your last nine games, where you went 0-5 in road games against likely tournament-bound teams. You blew a 12-point lead at home versus Michigan, which would have secured your bid in the NCAA Tournament.

But, five RPI top-50 wins keep you in at the moment, including a sweep of Wisconsin.

Projection: You are IN as a No. 11 seed

New Mexico (21-10, 12-4, Mountain West)

Just four conference losses appears credible on the surface. However, those four losses came in splits against BYU, Utah, UNLV, and San Diego State, all of whom are vying for the maximum number of bids, four, your conference will receive.

You failed to collect a signature win in non-conference play, and you have three losses outside of the RPI top-100.

Projection: You are OUT and need to win the Mountain West Tournament

Northwestern (17-12, 8-10 Big Ten)

Defending 17 wins is tough. Defending just eight conference wins is tougher. And blowout losses at Minnesota and Wisconsin are nearly indefensible. However, six wins against the RPI top-50, road wins over Michigan State and Purdue, and a 14-point home win over Florida State is quite impressive.

But a loss at Iowa and getting swept by Michigan puts you on the outside looking in. Plus, you lost at Stanford, which nearly cancels the Florida State win.

Projection: You are OUT and need to win two Big Ten Tournament games

Penn State (21-10, 10-8 Big Ten)

Zero notable non-conference wins hurts. And you, like so many other Big Ten bubble teams, lost to Iowa. However, a home win over Purdue and a road win against Michigan State help. Six RPI top-50 wins also help.

You swept Illinois, but Wisconsin swept you. Can your lack of an important non-conference win and the 309th-toughest non-conference strength of schedule hold up?

Projection: You are IN as a No. 12 seed

Providence (18-12, 10-8 Big East)

Your best Big East road win was against Cincinnati. You went just 2-8 against the RPI top-50. And your best wins were over Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Rhode Island, all at home.

With 12 losses against the RPI top-100, a three-win run in the Big East tournament is needed to remain in contention for an at-large bid, especially now since you can't win your third game over Cincinnati.

Projection: You are OUT and need to win three Big East Tournament games

Rhode Island (22-9, 11-5 A-10)

With that one-point home loss to Massachusetts on Saturday, you now have three losses against team outside of the RPI top-100. Plus, you have only two RPI top-50 wins, but wins over VCU and Penn State help somewhat.

However, your 139th-ranked strength of schedule might concern those on the selection committee.

Projection: You are OUT and need to win the A-10 Tournament

Saint Mary's (25-6, 10-4 WCC)

You've lost to Gonzaga three times. And you lost to UTEP in non-conference play. Wins over Providence and San Diego State help. But is that the type of bid the committee is looking for? Sorry, Patrick Mills did miss some time, but your resume doesn't hold, with or without him.

Now you must sit and wait, hoping that other bubble chances blow their opportunities to earn an at-large bid.

Projection: You are the second team OUT and need other bubble teams to lose

San Diego State (21-8, 11-5 Mountain West)

You play UNLV in your first game of the conference tournament. If you beat UNLV, that win will be your third against the Rebels. Surely, the committee will not put them in ahead of you if you beat them three times.

You didn't win any notable non-conference games, however, and, like New Mexico, you went just 4-4 against the other four teams in contention for your conference's four bids.

Projection: You are OUT and need to beat UNLV in the Mountain West Tournament

South Carolina (21-8, 10-6 SEC)

Talk about a soft non-conference schedule. Your best win? A one-point victory at Baylor, one of the biggest disappointments in the country.

In conference, you went 0-3 against LSU and Tennessee, the only SEC locks for the NCAA Tournament. And your only RPI top-50 win was a one-point win at home versus Florida.

Projection: You are OUT and need to win the SEC Tournament

UNLV (21-9, 9-7 Mountain West)

With four RPI top-50 wins, you have the most favorable bid compared to New Mexico and San Diego State, who have three and just one, respectively. Your one-point win at Louisville is the best win of any team in your conference, and a home win over Arizona helps.

However, you lost to every team in your conference except the worst team, Air Force, who didn't win a conference game, and the best team, BYU. But, all discussion aside, you merely have to beat San Diego State in the conference tournament to stay alive.

Projection: You are IN as a No. 10 seed

Virginia Tech (17-13, 7-9 ACC)

You have lost six or your last seven games. You are just 2-8 against the RPI top-50. And you have to losses outside of the RPI top-100. Yet somehow, you are still alive on the bubble.

To your credit, however, roads win over Wake Forest and Clemson will help, and your last four losses came against North Carolina, Duke, and Florida State twice. And your four non-conference losses came by a margin of just eight total points.

Projection: You are OUT and need to beat Miami FL in the ACC Tournament