Breeders' Cup 2012 Odds: Betting Guide to Favorites and Dark Horses

The Breeders' Cup is just two days away and with all the entries finalized, everyone now turns their attention to start seriously handicapping the field on every race.

Whether you are an old and wise handicapper or are just starting to figure out how to read the past performances, the Breeders' Cup, just like any other horse racing event is a challenge in itself.

There are many tools to handicap thoroughbreds. A lot of people prefer to read between speed and pace figures; others add in pedigrees, forms, tracks, trainers, jockeys, etc.

But in the end it comes down to whether you want to play for easy money or the big payday, and that is all about identifying who are the favorites and dark horses.

Let's take a quick look at who are those horses in this weekend's event so you can get started.

Juvenile Sprint

Date: Nov. 2, 4th race

Post Time: 1:06 p.m. PT

Distance: Six furlongs

Purse: $500,000

Favorites

Merit Man has won both of his starts, with last an impressive easy win at the Tim Conway Stakes over this course. His jockey, Patrick Valenzuela, is an experienced jockey who has won seven BC races.

Super Ninety Nine impressed with her debut win after dueling up to the stretch and prevailing over seven furlongs. Trainer Bob Baffert is always a must-play here, and his combination with jockey Martin Garcia is very effective.

Dark Horses

Hazardous, a winner twice in three starts, is a claimer that steps up big time here. He switched to dirt for his last race over this and crushed the claimer field by 13 lengths and a 1:10.27 time for six furlongs—the best time for the distance on this field.

Marathon (G2)

Date: Nov. 2, 5th race

Post Time: 1:46 p.m. PT

Distance: 14 furlongs

Purse: $500,000

This is a tough race to handicap due to the fact that only two horses, Eldaafer (3-1-0-0) and Romp (ARG) (1-0-0-0) have experience dialing over this long distance.

Favorites

Eldaafer won this race in 2010 and after looking out of from for over a year, he seems to be reaching his peak form for this race. He won two starts out and finished third to Pool Play in his last race.

Worth Repeating is a former claimer that three races ago finished second to Richard's Kid—a contender in the Classic—just 1.5 lengths behind. His last was a very convincing win that showed he is also peaking at the right time.

Dark Horses

Commander will play catch-me-if-you-can-here. This race is three furlongs farther than the 11 furlongs he grinded out in his last race and prevailed to win; with Mario Gutierrez's patient ride, he might just get to the wire ahead.

Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1)

Date: Nov. 2, 6th race

Post Time: 2:28 p.m. PT

Distance: One mile on turf

Purse: $1 million

Favorites

Sky Lantern (IRE) won the Group 1, win-and-in race in Ireland on her last race. Her credentials are worthy of being the favorite here and the horse to beat.

Watsdachances is running a three-race winning streak where she has been clearly above her opposition. Trainer Chad Brown and jockey Javier Castellano just add value to the play here.

Spring Venture is unbeaten in three starts at Woodbine and has thoroughly dominated each race. The combination of Canada's top connections of trainer Mark Casse and jockey Patrick Husbands is a must-play anywhere.

Dark Horses

Flashy Ways is unbeaten in two starts winning with sizzling times, including a 1:34.45 for the mile on her last over the Santa Anita course.

Flotilla (FR) was full of run in her last start, a Group 1 race in Longchamp, but was stuck in traffic on the rail and never got a chance to make her run and still lost by only 1.5 lengths.

Juvenile Fillies (G1)

Date: Nov. 2, 7th race

Post Time: 3:08 p.m. PT

Distance: 8.5 furlongs

Purse: $2 million

This should be a terrific race with the best juvenile fillies in the west against the best from the east.

Favorites

Executiveprivilege has won all five of her starts in terrific fashion. You cannot ask for a hotter trainer-jockey combo in the West Coast than Bob Baffert and Rafael Bejarano, and you get it with her connections here.

Dreaming of Julia is also unbeaten, but had to grind out a win in her last race after blasting the opposition by 26 combined lengths in her first two wins. If you think you couldn't top the previous trainer-jockey combo, you will when you have Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez here.

Beholder switched to dirt on her last here in Santa Anita and crushed the opposition over six furlongs earning an eye-popping 108 Beyer figure—the best by leaps and bounds here. She has the rail to use her outstanding speed when she tries to stretch it out two turns for the first time.

Kauai Katie has been impressive winning her three starts, but she has not faced top competition like she will do here. She will have the outside post and Beholder to her inside and must show she can rate off a top pace-setter.

Dark Horses

There comes a moment when you just acknowledge that the favorites are just head and shoulders above the rest. This is one of those moments.

Filly and Mare Turf (G1)

Date: Nov. 2, 8th race

Post Time: 3:48 p.m. PT

Distance: 10 furlongs on turf

Purse: $2 million

Favorites

Ridasiyna (FR) is a Group 1 winner back in France where she has won four of five starts. She has been impressive winning over top competition and has earned the top billing here.

The Fugue (GB) is another Group 1 winner, this one back in the UK. She comes from finishing second  by a neck in a Group 1 race to Shareta, who will be duking it out with the big boys on the turf on Saturday. 

Marketing Mix is the top American hope in the race. Her last race was an very impressive win here in Santa Anita at the Grade I Rodeo Drive Stakes, where she covered the 10 furlongs in 1:59.20. Big-time jockey Garrett Gomez will repeat the mount.

Dark Horses

In Lingerie will try the turf for the first time. She comes from an impressive win in the Spinster on a Polytrack course, staying a perfect 3-for-3 over the artificial track. The unavoidable Todd Pletcher-John Velazquez combo are the connections for this improving filly.

Ladies Classic (G1)

Date: Nov. 2, 9th race

Post Time: 4:30 p.m. PT

Distance: Nine furlongs

Purse: $2 million

This is the race everyone will be waiting for on Friday. Royal Delta, the reigning champ, will be defending her title against the unbeaten winners of the last two Juvenile Fillies: Awesome Feather (2010) and My Miss Aurelia (2011).

Favorites

Royal Delta comes into the race in the best shape of her life after crushing the field in the Grade I Beldame at Belmont. She will have to avoid the occasional bounce race she has had; if she does, she will be right in it at the end.

Awesome Feather is remains as impressive as it can be; she comes into the race after winning the Nasty Storm Stakes after an eight-month layoff. She won it over dubious competition, but she won on a hand ride by 11 lengths, stopping the clock at 1:33.47 for the mile at Belmont.

My Miss Aurelia comes off having to dig deep and catch a stubborn Questing (GB) at the Grade I Cotillion Stakes, prevailing after a thrilling stretch duel at Parx Racing. She has stepped up to every challenge and conquered them so far; she will need to step up one more notch here.

Dark Horses

Grace Hall has been just a tad below the top competition she has faced, but she has shown flashes of greatness a few times. She has been zipping through her workouts and can benefit from her recent form here.

Juvenile Turf (G1)

Date: Nov. 3, 4th race

Post Time: 11:50 a.m. PT

Distance: One mile on turf

Purse: $1 million

Favorites

Dundonnell, a Group 3 winner two races ago back in the UK, defeated Steeler, the tenacious winner of the Group 2 Juddmonte Royal Lodge in that race. His last race was a half-length, second-place finish to the highly regarded unbeaten Toronado (IRE) in a Group 2 race.

Noble Tune is unbeaten in two starts, winning in both firm and yielding courses. His last win was very impressive on the yield at the Grade III Pilgrim Stakes, and having Ramon Dominguez, the nation's leading jockey, certainly helps.

Dark Horses

Artigiano finished a game second to Steeler in the Group 2 Juddmonte Royal Lodge and has been very consistent with top company in the UK.

Gervinho is unbeaten in two starts. He steps up in class here but has been very impressive in both wins; with Rafael Bejarano aboard, this horse is one to watch.

Filly and Mare Turf Sprint (G1)

Date: Nov. 3, 5th race

Post Time: 12:35 p.m. PT

Distance: Seven furlongs

Purse: $1 million

Favorites

Groupie Doll will be the big favorite and has been head and shoulders above the rest of the division in her last four races, which include two Grade I races. Her form is impeccable and looks the part of a champion all the time.

Dust and Diamonds blew away the defending champion of this race—Musical Romance—and Turbulent Descent in her win at the Gallant Bloom, which was her last race and when she almost matched the track record. If she doesn't bounce, she will give Groupie Doll a run for the title.

Turbulent Descent was a major disappointment in the Gallant Bloom in her last race but returns with very good workouts to the West Coast, where she has been very successful before. She needs to be on top of her game to win.

Dark Horses

Switch has been the runner-up in this race the last two years. Although her races this year have been uninspiring, the ride of Garrett Gomez and her two blistering workouts for this race indicate otherwise and makes her a dangerous contender once again.

Dirt Mile

Date: Nov. 3, 6th race

Post Time: 1:14 p.m. PT

Distance: One mile

Purse: $1 million

Favorites

Shackleford has not been on top of his game lately, but his second-place finish at the Kelso in his last race—coming from a layoff—shows he might be peaking at the right time for this race. Ramon Dominguez retains the mount and that is a plus.

Emcee won the Grade I Forego impressively and has been zipping through his workouts for this race, which shows he is primed to move forward from his impressive win. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and jockey Alan Garcia are a winning combination.

Jersey Town showed some of his old form when he defeated Shackleford in decisive form in the Kelso on his last race. He hasn't string two big races together since his first two races and is much better one-turn runner.

Dark Horses

Fed Biz disappointed in his last race in the Grade II Indiana Derby, but returns to Santa Anita where he is unbeaten. This is another horse with the hottest trainer-jockey combo in the West Coast, Bob Baffert and Rafael Bejarano.

Turf Sprint (G1)

Date: Nov. 3, 7th race

Post Time: 12:35 p.m. PT

Distance: About 6.5 furlongs on downhill turf

Purse: $1 million

Favorites

Bridgetown is the slight morning line favorite here. He's very talented and game for the top combo of Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez, but will need to go beyond his comfort zone of 5.5 furlongs to win.

California Flag won this race on this very same course in 2009 and is 6-for-9 over this course and 5-for-6 at this very same distance here. He will have to do it from the rail though.

Unbridled's Note won decisively the Grade III Eddie D over this course at this same distance on his last race.

Dark Horses

Mizdirection is unbeaten over this course at this distance in two tries. Hall of Famer Mike Smith will be the jockey and he is the BC all-time co-leader in BC wins all-time.

Juvenile (G1)

Date: Nov. 3, 8th race

Post Time: 2:36 p.m. PT

Distance: 8.5 furlongs

Purse: $2 million

This race presents another very even East vs. West showdown.

 

Favorites

Shanghai Bobby is the best colt in the East Coast. He is perfect in four starts and has yet to be challenged. He has been working great for the race and has shown he can make the distance.

Power Broker, the best colt on the West Coast, just destroyed a talented opposition on his switch to conventional dirt, winning the Grade I Front Runner Stakes over this course.

This two are also trained by the top two trainers in each coast: Todd Pletcher (Shanghai Bobby) and Bob Baffert (Power Broker). You have to say that both are pretty evenly matched.

In the jockeys' matchup, both are excellent, but Rafael Bejarano (Power Broker) takes the slight edge over Rosie Napravnik (Shanghai Bobby).

 

Dark Horses

Speak Logistics and Title Contender come from very good wire-to-wire wins and have shown ability on their races so far.

Title Contender has the successful Bob Baffert-Martin Garcia trainer-jockey combo connection.

 

Turf (G1)

Date: Nov. 3, 9th race

Post Time: 3:18 p.m. PT

Distance: 12 furlongs

Purse: $3 million

This race has been dominated by the Europeans, but this year there is a horse that stands out as the best hope in recent years to stand his ground and end the Euro domination.

Favorites

Point of Entry is coming off five straight stakes wins, including three straight Grade I races. He has been clearly above his opposition and has been impressing with his workouts for the race.

St Nicholas Abbey is the defending champion who has run with the best in the world. His last effort in the Arc was extremely disappointing and could be a sign his recent tough campaign is catching up with him.

The filly Shareta is another Euro invader that had shown she was in top form prior to also disappointing in the Arc race. She clearly beat Solemia—the Arc winner—in her previous race, the Group 1 Prix Vermeille. In 2010, she finished second in the Arc to the winning filly Danedream (GER).

Dark Horses

Treasure Beach (GB) gave Point of Entry all he could handle before relinquishing the lead with a furlong to go in his last race in the Grade I Turf Classic Invitational. He seems to be hitting his best form just in time for this race. 

Sprint (G1)

Date: Nov. 3, 10th race

Post Time: 3:58 p.m. PT

Distance: Six furlongs

Purse: $1.5 million

Favorites

Coil won the prep race here and has been running huge at the shorter distances. He is a symbol of consistency and has the best workout times of anyone for this race. He's another likely favorite with Bob Baffert-Martin Garcia combo connections.

Amazombie is the defending champion. While he has not run a bad race, he was clearly beaten by three of his opponents in the prep race. His workouts have been identical to ones he had before winning last year.

The Lumber Guy won a win-and-in race impressively on his last race coming from a layoff and has never lost a one-turn race. John Velazquez retains the mount, which represents added value here.

Dark Horses

Fast Bullet has not run in a year and will have to step up in class here. His only two races have been outstanding sprints with blazing times and he is working out like he never left. If he runs like he is working out, he will be tough to catch.

Mile (G1)

Date: Nov. 3, 11th race

Post Time: 4:40 p.m. PT

Distance: One mile on turf

Purse: $2 million

This is a highly anticipated race. It will square off the horses that are currently ranked third (Excelebration) and fifth (Wise Dan) in the Global Timeform rankings.

This is another USA versus Europe showdown and one that everyone is looking forward to watching an American horse end the Euro domination on the great mile turf race.

Favorites

Wise Dan has been just crushing his opposition on the turf on this side of the Atlantic, registering electrifying victories on his last three starts. He will have to run another big race, but he is in the best shape of his life and should make his best run this Saturday.

Excelebration (IRE) could easily be topping those Timeform rankings with his domination over everyone else not named Frankel. He has an 8-4-3-1 record over a mile and you already know who provided the four losses.

Moonlight Cloud (GB) is a Group 1 winner who is no stranger to beating the males in Europe. She finished 1.5 lengths behind Excelebration two races ago, meaning she is not that far away from upsetting the top two.

Dark Horses

Animal Kingdom, the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner, comes from an eight-month layoff but very well prepared. His turn of foot is as good as anyone here, and if he can manage to be close, he could factor in the final result.

With Johnny Velazquez aboard Wise Dan, the mount of Rafael Bejarano helps to minimize the loss.

Classic (G1)

Date: Nov. 3, 12th race

Post Time: 5:30 p.m. PT

Distance: 10 furlongs

Purse: $5 million

Favorites

Game On Dude is a horse for the course. He is unbeaten in five starts over the course and has been one of the best horses in the division all year long. A win could earn him Horse of the Year honors and the Bob Baffert-Rafael Bejarano combo connection certainly helps here.

Flat Out was the favorite on this race last year but couldn't deliver on the sloppy track. He is once again coming off a win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and if he doesn't have any footing problems he will be a tough challenger.

Ron The Greek had been one of the top horses in the division prior to his dull effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. His workouts show he is ready to bounce back up and move forward.

Dark Horses

Mucho Macho Man and To Honor and Serve must answer the distance questions, but they are very talented horses that have the quality to top this field on any given day.

They will be ridden by Hall of Famers Mike Smith and John Velazquez, who are first and fourth, respectively, all time in BC wins.