Breeders' Cup Classic 2012: Breaking Down Odds for Every Contender

The $5 million Classic (Grade I) is the pinnacle of the Breeders' Cup event and the one everyone expects since most of the time, it attracts the best of the best in the USA and sometimes worldwide.

Last year, Drosselmeyer came in 10th place at the mile pole to run down a stubborn Game on Dude in the final half-furlong to win the race under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith.

That edition lacked true superstar power, even though several Horse of the Year candidates were in it, including the award's eventual winner, Havre de Grace, who finished fourth.

This year, although there are several very good horses on the race, and potential Horse of the Year candidates, it lacks that superstar horse on the field.

A true superstar could have been Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner I'll Have Another, who unfortunately got injured the day before the Belmont Stakes, lost the shot at the Triple Crown and had to retire, leaving everyone with the eternal question of "What if?"

Still, this year's edition, led by the likely favorite Game On Dude, Flat Out, Mucho Macho Man and Ron the Greek, promises to be a very interesting race, and one where another long shot could sneak up and win it.

The Classic, run on dirt at 10 furlongs, will go as the 12th race on the Saturday card at Santa Anita and will have an approximate post time of 5:30 p.m. PT.

Let's take a quick look at the contenders for this Saturday's main event.

Alpha

Owner: Godolphin Racing LLC

Trainer: Kiaran P. McLaughlin

Jockey: Ramon A. Dominguez

Record: 10-5-2-0

Earnings: $1,270,000

Odds: 20-1

Alpha is a very talented horse that just haven't been able to beat the top horses in his division, and now he will have the daunting challenge of topping the best older horses as well.

His last race—the Pennsylvania Derby—was a serious disappointment, although it can be said that his acting up at the start cost him.

He has two workouts that show he is in top form (5F - :59.80, 4F - :48.40) for this race.

Brilliant Speed

Owner: Live Oak Plantation

Trainer: Thomas Albertrani

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Record: 20-3-3-7

Earnings: $1,203,531

Odds: 30-1

Brilliant Speed's best race on dirt was in last year's Belmont Stakes, when he finished third after entering the stretch threatening to take the lead and win.

But that was on a sloppy track; on a fast dirt course (like Santa Anita should be on Saturday), he has never placed on the top three.

He is clearly a turf horse that has not been on top of his game for his last three races and will need to step up with a career effort here.

Flat Out

Owner: Preston Stables LLC

Trainer: William I. Mott

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Record: 19-6-4-2

Earnings: $2,042,383

Odds: 8-1

If this race were being run at Belmont Park, he would be the heavy favorite in this race; he is a perfect three-for-three there, including the last two Jockey Club Gold Cups at Belmont.

Still, Flat Out should be considered one of the top contenders to win this year. He finished fifth on this race last year, finishing 1.5 lengths by the likely favorite Game on Dude, who finished second.

He has been working very well for this race, handles the distance (two wins in three tries) and he just needs to outrun his injury-riddled past to contend for the win.

Fort Larned

Owner: Janis R. Whitham

Trainer: Ian R. Wilkes

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr

Record: 18-7-2-1

Earnings: $981,236

Odds: 8-1

Fort Larned entered the Jockey Club Gold Cup as the favorite after his decisive win over Ron The Greek and Flat Out.

The question with him was the additional furlong he would have to cover, and although he made his move once again at the three-quarter pole, this time he was outran to the finish by Flat Out and Stay Thirsty.

The last time he ran a bad race (Stephen Foster Handicap) he came back to win and  equaled his career best Beyer Figure (108.)

He has worked decently for this race, so a move forward can be expected.

Game On Dude

Owner: B. Schiappa, Lanni Family Trust, Diamond Pride and Mercedes Stable

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Record: 20-9-5-1

Earnings: $2,994,658

Odds: 5-2

Game On Dude ran a terrific race last year in this race, finishing second to Drosselmeyer after relinquishing the lead in the final half-furlong.

He has earned the billing as the likely favorite and possibly could pick up a Horse of the Year award if he were to win this Saturday.

If there is a horse for the course, it's Game On Dude. He is unbeaten in five starts at Santa Anita and has been blazing through his workouts.

His only question would be the distance. While he has won at the 10 furlongs, it hasn't been his preferred distance with a 7-2-3-0 record.

Chantal Sutherland did a very good job on him, but with the mount of California's top rider, Rafael Bejarano, there will be an added value.

Handsome Mike

Owner: Reddam Racing LLC

Trainer: Doug F. O'Neill

Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

Record: 10-2-1-1

Earnings: $756,780

Odds: 20-1

Handsome Mike was the big upset winner of the Pennsylvania Derby on his last race.

While that was a big win for him, the field on that race is not even close to the quality he is facing here.

He earned a career-best 92 Beyer figure for that race; everyone else on the field here—except Alpha—has eclipsed the 100 mark at least twice in their lifetime.

Mucho Macho Man

Owner: Reeves Thoroughbred Racing

Trainer: Katherine Ritvo

Jockey: Mike E. Smith

Record: 17-6-4-4

Earnings: $1,456,410

Odds: 10-1

The very talented Mucho Macho Man can beat anybody on his best day and be a game contender when he is not up to par.

He likes to run coming off a layoff and has done it very well in the past, winning three of four times.

His top form cannot be denied. He has been burning the track on his workouts, as seen on Oct. 1 at Saratoga, running three furlongs in 34.60, and his lightning-fast five furlongs move on Oct. 6 in 57.60.

Questions arise around his handling of the distance; he has a third-place finish (2011 Kentucky Derby) as his best finish in his only try at the 10-furlong distance.

Nonios

Owner: Green B. Smith Jr.

Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer

Jockey: Martin Pedroza

Record: 8-3-3-1

Earnings: $409,000

Odds: 15-1

Nonios is coming off his best career effort, finishing second to Game On Dude in the Awesome Again Stakes and earning a 104 Beyer Figure.

He always has shown talent, being a game contender to the top horses he has run against in the past.

He looks ready to move forward from that last race, as he has shown no bounce on his works for this race.

Pool Play

Owner: W.S. Farish Jr

Trainer: Mark E. Casse

Jockey: Miguel Mena

Record: 32-7-6-6

Earnings: $1,240,615

Odds: 30-1

Pool Play might be a horse that will be overlooked in this race.

But one thing that cannot be overlooked is the fact that he has run only twice on conventional dirt and has won both times, earning triple-digit Beyer Figures each time.

He can handle the 10-furlong distance; the question with him comes regarding whether he is good enough and ready to take on this top field.

So far, this will be the toughest field the seven-year-old horse has seen.

Richard's Kid

Owner: Triple B. Farms, Westside Rentals.com, D. Kenney, S. Keh and D. Kramer

Trainer: Doug F. O'Neill

Jockey: Garrett K. Gomez

Record: 37-11-3-9

Earnings: $2,136,385

Odds: 12-1

The seven-year-old horse is the most experienced on the field and definitely has the quality to contend and win this race.

His last race wasn't his best because the slow pace up front hurt him.

He runs his best when there is an honest pace up front, but that is still not clear for this race, since there are a lot of stalkers and only one true pace-setter—Game On Dude.

Still, Richard's Kid is a dangerous contender here.

Ron The Greek

Owner: Brous Stable, Wachtel Stable and Jack T. Hammer

Trainer: William I. Mott

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

Record: 21-7-5-1

Earnings: $1,266,597

Odds: 8-1

Since last November, Ron The Greek has been one of the top older horses in the nation.

He is 8-4-3-0 during that span and has the distinction of being the only one this year to have defeated who many consider to be the best American horse at the moment, Wise Dan.

The only blemish for him is his effort on his last race, a non-threatening sixth-place finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

He won the Santa Anita Handicap in his only start over the track. While it was a lesser field, his time was outstanding for the 10 furlongs.

His works for this race show he looks primed to move forward from his dull effort in his last race.

To Honor and Serve

Owner: Live Oak Plantation

Trainer: Thomas Albertrani

Jockey: John R. Velazquez

Record: 16-8-1-3

Earnings: $1,798,840

Odds: 15-1

To Honor and Serve is one of the best horses in the nation when he shows his best form on the track.

Unfortunately for him, he has been very inconsistent this year, failing to show up on three of his five races this year.

Just like Mucho Macho Man, he is a very talented horse that could win this race if he comes out running his best race.

This will be the first time he will make a cross-country travel to race. The farthest east he's gone is Parx Racing.

But consistency and the question of whether he can get the additional furlong are his low points.