Alex Rodriguez: A Fantasy Perspective

Is he getting it or isn’t he?  There’s been conflicting reports throughout the day, but now that the Yankees officially responded, we have a much clearer picture of what’s going on.  I’ll be the first to say, I don’t think it’s going to end up the way he wants.

Let me explain why. Basically, what we’re looking at is a repeat of Mike Lowell and Chase Utley from last year each representing a possible outcome. With Chase Utley, he was able to finish out the year and have surgery during the offseason, but his power faded during the second half. 

With Mike Lowell, he kept re-aggravating his hip until he ended up getting surgery in Octobe, but only played once between September 16th.

That’s the risk Alex is taking. If he delays it, he could end up going through the season with less power or he could end up aggravating it and having to go under the knife mid-season.

If he undergoes surgery, he will likely be out about four months, assuming there are no other complications, such as to the head of the femur or additional damage to the labrum itself.

If he gets the surgery now, that would put him out until the All-Star break (roughly).  If he tries playing and ends up needing it in June, that puts him out for four months worth of games, and he may not even be able to make it back for the playoffs.

If I were advising him, I’d suggest getting it done now for several reasons. First, you already have a month of rehab time built in with spring training and the WBC still going on. Second, you will take away the risk of the damage worsening or spreading to other areas of the joint. Third, it would get him away from all the PED talk for at least a little while.

Fantasy wise, obviously this clearly effects his status in my eyes. I think it clearly drops him out of the first round, even if he doesn’t have the surgery immediately.  The risk of him requiring the surgery or suffering from decreased output is too great in my eyes. 

You can easily grab David Wright and get a much safer pick than Alex Rodriguez. If I was drafting him, I would look to get about 20-25 HR, less SB, and maybe about 60-80 RBIs.  Pay for that, and you should end up happy one way or the other.