NCAA Tournament Bubble Trouble

The NCAA tournament bubble appears to be filled with mediocre and unknown teams. The difference when comparing about 20 teams appears to be razor thin. Here is my latest analysis as to the tournament hopes of some teams on that thin line.

In

Penn State—Big, ugly, awful, unwatchable road win at Illinois stands out.

UNLV—The Rebels' conference record hinders them, but their excellent wins are far better than most on the bubble.

St. Mary's—As long as Patty Mills plays in the West Coast Conference tournament, and the Gaels make the finals and lose to Gonzaga, they should get in. They were 18-1 with Mills.

Wisconsin—The Badgers really need to beat Indiana and win a game in the Big Ten tournament to cement this spot, but with wins over Virginia Tech and Michigan, they beat out two teams that are close.

Oklahoma State—A six-game winning streak has the Cowboys in as of now, plus wins over Siena and Rhode Island give them a bubble advantage over two teams near the edge.

On the Edge Looking In

San Diego State and New Mexico—Both teams have very good records in a solid Mountain West Conference, yet both suffer from a very weak non-conference schedule. San Diego State beating UNLV at home would be a big boost to its chances. New Mexico has nothing on the road that stands out.

Rhode Island—With a lot of other teams floundering, Rhode Island has won 10 of its last 11 to at least get into consideration. They are Oklahoma State fans at this point.

Niagara and Western Kentucky—These are two teams few discuss on the bubble, but with major conference teams ending their hopes day by day, maybe these two teams that are hot, and have achieved, should be discussed. Previous tournament success doesn't count, which is a shame since Western Kentucky was as successful last year as any other team I mentioned (lost in the same round as Wisconsin), and is having another great year.

Virginia Tech—How did the Hokies win at Wake Forest? Losing five out of six has left them needing a big run in the ACC tournament to make it. Having their finale at Florida State is a must-win game, and not an easy one.

Florida—The home game versus Kentucky is a play-out game, where if Florida loses, the Gators join Kentucky in the NIT. They probably are anyway, with an 8-7 record in the SEC and winning only two road games in 2009.

Bubble Burst

Cincinnati—Don't even tell me they deserve a bid if they go .500 in the Big East. It's a 16-team conference. At least eight teams will go .500 because of the size of the conference. Cincinnati's best win in conference was at home versus West Virginia. The Bearcats lost at South Florida. They need to win the Big East tournament.

Kentucky—They just lost at home to Georgia. 8-7 in a bad SEC this year will not cut it. Too many bad losses, too few big wins.

Miami—Lost to Georgia Tech, now 6-9 in the ACC. Some good wins, not enough.