Predicting All Top 25 Week 4 College Football Games Against the Spread

Week 4 has a couple of things in store for us that Week 3 did not:

1) A Top 25 team playing on a day other than Saturday

2) Multiple Top 25 vs. Top 25 matchups

After two straight weeks of upsets, it has become obvious that no game is safe. There's no such thing as a sure win, especially when several ranked teams have yet to prove they deserve their standing in the polls.

Some Week 3 upsets were huge, like Pitt over Virginia Tech. Some upsets were really just the preseason polls working themselves out, like Stanford over USC.

Here are my Week 4 picks against the spread, and hopefully much closer to reality this time around.

*Idaho State at No. 25 Nebraska has no line as of Sept. 18. (Kickoff: Saturday, Sept. 22 at 3:30 p.m.)

*All times are Eastern

*Stats from ESPN.com, sportsbook.ag and betvega.com

BYU at No. 24 Boise State

When: Thursday, Sept. 20 at 9 p.m.

Line: Boise State -7.5

Over/Under: 48.5

Pick: Boise State covers. Take the under.

Boise State covered the 21-point spread against Miami (OH) last week. The Broncos have gone under the O/U in both games they've played so far in 2012.

BYU and Boise will be fighting for placement in the bottom area of the Top 25. The Broncos are there, and BYU just got pushed out in a crazy game against Utah.

BYU will show up with some fight, but the Broncos will pull this one out 28-17.

Virginia at No. 17 TCU

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at noon

Line: TCU -17.5

Over/Under: 53.5

Pick: TCU covers. Take the under.

TCU hosts Virginia this weekend, and it will be a lopsided game. TCU quarterback Casey Pachall will use Virginia's 88th-ranked defense as a marketing tool for his dark-horse Heisman campaign, which got a bit brighter with Matt Barkley's loss.

TCU will blast Virginia to the tune of 35-7 or worse, but should fall just shy of the 53.5 total score mark.

UAB at No. 16 Ohio State

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at noon

Line: Ohio State -37

Over/Under: OFF

Pick: Ohio State covers.

UAB is playing a money game this week, and the Buckeyes need a dominating performance to clear the air after last week's shockingly close win over California.

Look for a score similar to the 56-10 drubbing that the Buckeyes handed Miami (OH) in the season opener.

Kentucky at No. 14 Florida

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at noon

Line: Florida -24

Over/Under: 51.5

Pick: Florida covers. Take the under.

Kentucky lost to Western Kentucky last week, and Florida will not wait until the fourth quarter to show Kentucky who's boss.

Florida beat Tennessee by 17 in Week 3, and Kentucky is at least a touchdown worse than Tyler Bray and company.

Maryland at No. 8 West Virginia

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at noon

Line: West Virginia -27

Over/Under: 62

Pick: West Virginia covers. Take the over.

West Virginia is a major contender in the Big 12 this year, and Geno Smith will continue his potential Heisman run against the Terrapins.

Look for a score similar to WVU's 69-34 stomping of Marshall in Week 1, except a lower score from Maryland.

Eastern Michigan at No. 21 Michigan State

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at 3:30 p.m.

Line: Michigan State -33

Over/Under: OFF

Pick: Michigan State wins but doesn't cover.

Purdue beat Eastern Michigan last week 54-16. Purdue is underrated this year, and is actually a little better than Michigan State.

Michigan State will make this even more clear when it fails to cover the spread against the Eagles, even at home.

Oregon State at No. 19 UCLA

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at 3:30 p.m.

Line: UCLA -8.5

Over/Under: 53.5

Pick: UCLA covers. Take the under.

UCLA is rising with each passing week. While Oregon State is not to be trifled with, the Beavers will not pull out a win at UCLA.

UCLA and Oregon State were responsible for the biggest upsets in Week 2 other than ULM's win over then-No. 8 Arkansas.

This will be a battle, but a late touchdown will put the Bruins up by 10 before the final whistle blows.

Missouri at No. 7 South Carolina

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at 3:30 p.m.

Line: South Carolina -10

Over/Under: 48.5

Pick: Missouri upsets South Carolina. Take the over.

The good news for the Gamecocks is Connor Shaw will start this Saturday. The bad news is D.J. Swearinger will not. Swearinger is a solid safety that has already deflected three passes this year to go along with his nine tackles.

While that may not seem like much at first glance, Missouri isn't a pushover. The Tigers hung with Georgia until the fourth quarter. They are physical and are ready to play in the SEC.

The Tigers will likely take Connor Shaw out of the game before the fourth quarter, thanks to Spurrier not sitting Shaw for the UAB game. Shaw hurt his throwing shoulder (again) against UAB, just like against Vanderbilt.

He won't make it through 60 minutes against Mizzou. With the Gamecocks down a starting safety, the over should be reached late in the third quarter.

Florida Atlantic at No. 1 Alabama

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at 5 p.m.

Line: Alabama -49.5

Over/Under: OFF

Pick: Alabama covers.

Normally, one wouldn't pick Alabama to cover a 50-point spread unless there were serious issues on the other side of the field.

Florida Atlantic has allowed 20 rushes of over 10 yards in its first three games and 10 rushes of over 20 yards. That is a huge issue against a Tide team who had third-stringers rushing for TDs against Arkansas last week.

Try as he might, Saban will not be running much clock out in Week 4. The Tide will accidentally rush for a couple of touchdowns like this (Eddie Lacy rush up the middle at 12:00).

Cal at No. 13 USC

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at 6 p.m.

Line: USC -16

Over/Under: 57.5

Pick: USC covers. Take the over.

USC is wounded after falling to Stanford by seven points last week. California is riding a bit of a high after almost taking Ohio State down in the Horseshoe.

Cal's secondary had a blown coverage that Braxton Miller capitalized on for a late win. Matt Barkley is going to be fighting with all he's got to regain his footing in the Heisman race.

He's going to make a statement against Cal.

South Alabama at No. 23 Mississippi State

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at 7 p.m.

Line: Mississippi State -34.5

Over/Under: OFF

Pick: Mississippi State wins but doesn't cover.

The 30-24 win over Troy last week has given some voters pause when seeing the Bulldogs in the Top 25. Personally, my ballot did not include them.

The win over Auburn seems less impressive with each passing week (no disrespect to Louisiana-Monroe), and they played a close game in Week 3 with the wrong Trojans.

Mississippi State played flat on both sides of the ball last week and needs to right the ship against South Alabama. While the Bulldogs may right the ship, a six-point win from last week doesn't equal a 35-point win this week.

No. 20 Louisville at Florida International

When: Saturday, Sept 22 at 7 p.m.

Line: Louisville -13.5

Over/Under: 57.5

Pick: Louisville covers. Take the under.

Florida International lost to Duke by 20 points...in football. I don't know how many other stats you need to justify picking Louisville, but here are a few anyway.

Louisville beat Kentucky 32-14 and Missouri State 35-7. Those games are more comparable to this one than the five-point victory over North Carolina last week.

No. 2 LSU at Auburn

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at 7 p.m.

Line: LSU -20.5

Over/Under: 48.5

Pick: LSU covers. Take the over

LSU is sitting at the No. 2 spot in both polls right now, and will likely stay there until the head-to-head matchup against Alabama on Nov. 3.

Auburn is coming off a three-point overtime victory over the ULM Warhawks in Week 3. Auburn's defense is absolutely nothing compared to what it was during the championship run of 2010, and the offense is still atrocious.

LSU may get exposed as inferior to last year's edition before the season is over, but Auburn will not be the team to do that. However, Auburn will find the end zone enough to hit the over.

No. 18 Michigan at No. 11 Notre Dame

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at 7:30 p.m.

Line: Notre Dame -5.5

Over/Under: 51.5

Pick: Notre Dame wins but doesn't cover. Take the over.

Michigan's fall from the Top 10 was solely due to its season-opening loss to Alabama. Notre Dame got a large boost from defeating an overrated Michigan State squad.

Respect goes to Notre Dame for beating Michigan State, no doubt. Notre Dame has lost to Michigan by four points in each of the last three seasons.

Notre Dame's performances against Michigan State and Purdue suggest that a four-point victory is coming for the Irish at home in Week 4.

Vanderbilt at No. 5 Georgia

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at 7:45 p.m.

Line: Georgia -16

Over/Under: 54.5

Pick: Georgia covers. Take the over.

Georgia defeated Missouri 41-20 with a fourth-quarter surge that made the final score look like a blowout, which couldn't be any less true.

In the first half, expect Vanderbilt to play like it did Week 1 against South Carolina. After halftime, though, look for Georgia to open the game up somewhere in the neighborhood of 42-14.

No. 15 Kansas State at No. 6 Oklahoma

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at 7:50 p.m.

Line: Oklahoma -14

Over/Under: 58.5

Pick: Kansas State upsets Oklahoma. Take the under.

Oklahoma is overrated at No. 6, and Kansas State is underrated at No. 15. This is one of the few opportunities that Kansas State has to make the leap into the national title discussion.

Oklahoma is coming off a bye and has played absolutely nobody of skill yet. Last year, the Sooners destroyed the Wildcats 57-17.

Kansas State will take the Sooners by complete surprise and win a dogfight.

No. 10 Clemson at No. 4 Florida State

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at 8 p.m.

Line: Florida State -14

Over/Under: 57.5

Pick: Florida State covers. Take the over.

Florida State lost to Wake Forest last year 35-30. The Seminoles lost to Clemson in 2011 by the same score. I'm not predicting a 52-0 shutout of Clemson, but the beat down of Wake proves this Florida State team is different from last year's unit.

Clemson will make a game of this, but you can't forget what Clemson does against prolific offenses. Does 70-33 ring a bell?

No. 22 Arizona at No. 3 Oregon

When: Saturday, Sept. 22 at 10:30 p.m.

Line: Oregon -24

Over/Under: 77.5

Pick: Oregon covers. Take the over.

Oregon's offense hasn't missed a beat since last year, but this is also the Ducks' first conference game.

Arizona will surprise people by making it a game at halftime, but Oregon will literally run away with the game after the third quarter starts.

Kenjon Barner and De'Anthony Thomas may both break the 100-yard barrier in this game.

The last three times these teams have played, the point total of the game has been 85, 77 and 87.