Week 1 NFL Picks: Bold Predictions Against Favorites in Opening Week

The Green Bay Packers are listed as five-point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers, per Odds Shark, but they won't cover. As a matter of fact, they won't even win.

The 49ers are my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, and they will make an opening week statement by defeating the Packers.

Green Bay's running game is already a bit suspect when healthy. This week they will be without James Starks, per the Green Bay Press Gazette, and Alex Green will get the start.

The Packers have had difficulty with teams with multiple pass-rushing threats. Their only two losses in 2011 came against the New York Giants in the playoffs and the Kansas City Chiefs in the regular season.

The Chiefs 3-4 look gave the Packers' offense fits in their 19-14 win in December. They held Aaron Rodgers to only 235 yards passing, and they sacked him four times.

A similar look will be problematic coming from the Niners. Justin Smith and Aldon Smith will cause the Packers and Rodgers issue on Sunday.

No defense is going to completely shut Green Bay down, but the Niners won't need to.

In addition to their stingy defense, that was tops in the NFL against the run in 2011, the Niners will debut their new and improved offensive attack this week.

Alex Smith is more confident, and he has more weapons with Mario Manningham and Randy Moss. I say the Niners win this one 21-16.

Here are two more examples of favorites that will fail to come through in Week 1.

New York Jets (-2) over Buffalo Bills

I don't believe in this Jets team. Their chemistry is non-existent and a slow start will cause Rex Ryan's seat to warm.

I'm not totally in love with the Buffalo Bills either. However, the Jets' offense appears to be so inept I don't see them scoring enough points to win this game. In the preseason, the Jets scored a total of 31 points in four games.

That has to be a major cause for concern.

This looks like a battle of field position, and the Bills have a more potent and explosive running game. Both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller can cause problems for the Jets out of the backfield. They are capable of busting the big run, or turning a swing pass into a huge gain.

That type of play could be the difference in this game.

Jackson is especially dangerous and underrated. Last season, only Arian Foster averaged more yards per game from scrimmage among running backs.

Mark Sanchez is getting the challenge of his NFL career this season. He's truly in a make-or-break situation. If he doesn't have a fast start, he'll lose his job to Tim Tebow by Week 5.

I predict the slide begins here. I'm taking the Bills in this one, 17-10.

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

This is going to be an odd game. If Adrian Peterson plays, you'd have to assume he'd see limited action at best after this tweet from Ryan O'Halloran of Jacksonville.com:

"

No surprise -- #Vikings list RB Adrian Peterson as questionable and limited practice. #jaguars

— Ryan O'Halloran (@ryanohalloran) September 7, 2012"

On the Jaguars side, Maurice Jones-Drew is healthy, but he won't start fresh from his holdout, per O'Halloran in a separate article. However, Rashad Jennings is a very capable back, and I think he's going to have a big day as the starter.

MJD is a great back, but much of his success is due to the Jags commitment and execution of the ground game.

The young quarterbacks in this one have a lot to prove. Both franchises are evaluating them to see if they are indeed their franchise signal-callers. In this game, the quarterback that takes better care of the ball will lead his team to victory.

Gabbert's success will be tied into how well Eugene Monroe can contain Jared Allen. If he can keep Allen from dominating the game, Gabbert will be able to make the key third-down conversions the Jags need to pull out a road win.

I'm taking the Jags to win 14-6.

Check out my comparison picks with a Madden 13 simulation here.

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