NFL Hot Seat Update: Gauging Every Head Coach After Week 1

The first week of the season may just be one game out of 16. But oftentimes that game can really set the tone for the entire year while providing us with great insight into expectations moving forward.

When it comes to NFL head coaches and their job status, most of the time that first game will have little to no influence on whether the coach has edged any closer or further away from the hot seat. This status is usually the cumulative result of a few seasons.

In this piece, I take a team-by-team look at every head coach in the NFL and give a temperature reading on his job status immediately following Week 1’s outcomes. To do this, every coach's seat is given a score between five possible status levels ranging from Hot to Cozy.

If a coach's seat is rated Hot, this obviously is the worst status available and likely means his days are numbered.

Then there’s a Warm rating, which is one level down from hot, followed by a Room Temperature rating, generally designated for a coach whose status is rather neutral.

After that we head into the more desired ratings such as Cool, which is a good status for a coach to be in, as it usually signifies he's headed in the right direction.

But the best of the best in NFL head coaches will receive the hard-earned status of having a Cozy seat to rest easy in. Coaches with this status should purchase nearby real estate and settle into their respective cities, as they clearly are going to be there for a while.

So without wasting any more of your limited attention span, let’s get right into the list.

Chan Gailey

Hot

Uh oh, Chan Gailey failed to start this season off in a positive direction.

The Bills' opening-week performance has definitely heated up his seat, considering the expectations in Buffalo are higher than they've been since Jim Kelly was the quarterback.

If the Bills continue to underachieve in 2012, this could be the beginning of the end for Gailey in Buffalo. His seat has officially gotten hot.

Jason Garrett

Warm

Although Jason Garrett kicked off the 2012 season with a huge victory over their arch rivals and reigning Super Bowl champions, the New York Giants, he still has a lot to prove to owner Jerry Jones, who has a history of being impatient when his team struggles.

Garrett has demonstrated a lack of experience in the past as a head coach and really must improve as a leader rather than just some guy working for the owner.

I would say the big Week 1 win has taken Garrett's seat from from Hot to Warm...for now.

Joe Philbin

Warm

The Dolphins hung in against Houston as long as they could, but ultimately the Texans proved to be far too explosive for them.

Dolphins top pick and franchise QB Ryan Tannehill won the starting job in preseason despite many critics (including myself) believing he wasn’t ready just yet.

This decision to start Tannehill early could prove to be the unraveling of Miami’s front office, starting with general manager Jeff Ireland.

Against Houston, Tannehill threw three interceptions and no touchdowns, and he had a passer rating of only 39. He clearly isn’t comfortable as an NFL quarterback yet, and the Dolphins may not have the patience to wait around for long.

If Ireland were to lose his job this year, Philbin likely would be on his way out as well, as new GMs tend to favor their own hand-picked guys. This is unfortunate for Philbin, considering he’s in his first year as head coach and may not get much of a chance to prove himself.

With all that said, Philbin should be feeling the warmth of his seat after Week 1.

Tom Coughlin

Room Temperature

Tom Coughlin has found his way on and off the Hot Seat for years in New York. It seems he does his best work when the seat is hottest.

Now that he has won two championships in five years, Coughlin appears to be relatively safe for the moment—despite starting the season off with a big division loss.

The reason his seat isn't more cozy with all of his recent success is because of the questionable relationship he has had with players over the years.

Coaches who come at their players with strict discipline and harsh criticism are often quick to be fired when the ship begins to sink. This is due in part because of the inevitable player uprising when the tough love is no longer yielding results.

Bill Belichick

Cozy

No coach in the NFL has more job security than Bill Belichick.

He likely will be able to coach the Patriots for as long as he wishes, which at this point could be for a long time.

Belichick sets the bar for all other active coaches in the NFL and has acquired complete control over football operations in New England.

He would have to spit in the face of Robert Kraft on national television and then steal his girlfriend to potentially lose his job at this point. But even then Belichick might be kept around. He's that good.

Andy Reid

Hot

Eagles head coach Andy Reid barely pulled off a victory against the lowly Browns in Week 1.

Vick threw four interceptions on the day and has failed to live up to his monster contract or his dedicating the season to coach Reid in response to the death of his son.

With all the talent on Philly's roster, should Reid fail to make the playoffs this year, there will undoubtedly be an opening for the Eagles head coaching job. Few seats are hotter than Andy's in 2012, and Week 1 did him no favors.

Rex Ryan

Room Temperature

Rex Ryan has led the New York Jets to two conference championship games since taking over as head coach in 2009.

What may be just as important as that in terms of his job is that he has brought the Jets organization into the spotlight and right on the front pages.

With grave concerns about the Jets' ability to score points following a preseason where they failed to score a single touchdown, Week 1 went much differently than expected. The Jets racked up 48 points in their bashing of the Buffalo Bills.

If this win didn't take some heat off his seat, I don't know what will. But Rex fans shouldn't rest easy just yet—a losing record at season's end could spell the end of "Sexy Rexy Time" in New York.

Mike Shanahan

Cool

Owner Dan Snyder now has both his coach and his quarterback all set for the foreseeable future.

It would take a meltdown of epic proportions for Shanahan not to return as the head coach of the Redskins next year.

His system and team strategy are beginning to take shape, and the Skins seem poised to climb out from the basement of the NFC East. Shanahan proved in the opening week that he's the right guy to groom Robert Griffin III into the QB they expect him to be.

The Redskins likely won't contend for a divisional title this year, but we've already seen significant improvement as the future of Washington looks to be a bright one. One can only expect owner Dan Snyder would like Shanahan to be a part of it.

John Harbaugh

Cozy

After winning nearly 69 percent of his regular season games over four years as head coach of the Baltimore Ravens, John Harbaugh’s job status is stable and will be unaffected by the outcome of any one game this entire season.

He can find solace in the fact that his seat remains nice and cozy and will not be getting hot any time in this calendar year. Poor performances will have to become much more of a pattern before his job is ever in jeopardy.

Lovie Smith

Cool

Many are saying this year is Super Bowl or bust for the Chicago Bears, but in regard to Lovie's job security, he's relatively safe and should be around for a while longer.

The Bears welcomed Andrew Luck into the NFL by handing him a 41-21 defeat in Indianapolis.

Chicago seems to be loaded with talent this year and could go deep into the playoffs. If the season turns out to be a disappointment, only then should you look for Lovie Smith to find his way anywhere near the hot seat.

As of right now, though, Lovie is enjoying a nice cool place to rest his hardworking bum.

Marvin Lewis

Room Temperature

Marvin Lewis cooled his hot-seat status with an impressive overachieving season a year ago.

He now is forced to replicate this success in 2012, or he will find himself right back on the hot seat again. Lewis has been given a very long leash by NFL standards and is seemingly paying back the loyalty.

But after getting blown out against the Ravens, Lewis' seat might already be starting to warm. 

Jim Schwartz

Room Temperature

In Schwartz's first three seasons as Lions head coach, he has failed to win 40 percent of his games.

But the good news is he has been turning around a losing culture in Detroit by improving upon his record each year, including a berth in the playoffs just a season ago.

With the progress he's shown since arriving, Jim should rest easy for the most part considering the success of last year.

The seat of Schwartz could get hot by the end of the season if the Lions fail to have a winning record, but even if this happens, you can expect his return for at least one more year to redeem himself.

Pat Shurmur

Warm

If Shurmur can continue to field a competitive team week in and week out like he did against Philadelphia, he should be able to convince the new owner to give him some time to turn things around in Cleveland.

No one expected the Browns to compete like they did against the highly talented Eagles, whom many believe will win the Super Bowl. If anything, this loss has strengthened the case to give Shurmur time. His seat is warm and seems to be cooling.

Mike McCarthy

Cozy

Well, Week 1’s loss to the 49ers was not a good way to start the season, but rest assured McCarthy’s seat is far from hot.

He has proven to be a fantastic coach over the last seven years, and it would take a whole lot more than a home opener to change his job-security status.

Mike’s seat remains quite cozy, and the Packers should use this game as an opportunity to grow as a team and bounce back strong.

The Packers are still the team to beat in the NFL and can compete against any team in the league. Much of the team's recent success is due to McCarthy.

Mike Tomlin

Cozy

Mike Tomlin is one of the league’s best coaches who has experienced nothing but success as a head coach for the Steelers.

Despite the loss against Denver, Tomlin’s seat is one of the coziest in his profession.

Many expect this to be somewhat of a down year for Pittsburgh, but even that's relative. Winning records are commonplace for the Steelers, but this may be the year they find themselves without a playoff spot.

Either way, Tomlin will return as coach, and the Steelers are only a few pieces away from contention.

Leslie Frazier

Warm

The Vikings organization must be excited after Week 1, which featured the return of Adrian Peterson, who contributed a couple touchdowns to Minnesota's victory over Jacksonville.

Last year was Frazier's first full year as head coach after taking over for Brad Childress in Week 12 of the 2010 season. Since then, he has gone 6-16 in Minnesota and was awarded a second full season in 2012 to show he can turn things around.

This victory could be just what Leslie needed to cool things down on his seat cushion. But in a 16-game season, the Vikings will have to win many more games to keep Frazier around for another year.

Gary Kubiak

Cozy

Gary Kubiak has slowly built a Super Bowl-caliber team down in Houston, and this year's team appears to have its best chance yet for the ultimate trophy.

Kubiak’s system and style of coaching has been an invaluable piece to the success here, so don't expect any drastic moves to replace him.

The Texans ran away with the victory in the second half of their first game and really sent a message to the league.

Kubiak is sitting pretty with his job security at the moment. Given the team’s constant improvement, Kubiak has bought himself a good amount of leeway for an NFL head coach. His seat is cozy.  

Mike Smith

Cozy

Coach Mike Smith has never had a losing season during his tenure in Atlanta.

After four years of calling the shots, he has won 67 percent of his games and has brought a level of consistent success the Falcons organization has never had before.

The Falcons got off to a good start by clobbering the Chiefs in Arrowhead, which has given Smith a slight boost from the cool to cozy. 

Smith’s focus now is on taking Atlanta to the next level by winning some playoff games and ultimately getting to the Super Bowl. There’s no sign Smith is on a short leash, and he should have plenty of room to see this team through to the pinnacle of its growth and potential.

Smith is sitting pretty in a very cozy situation.

Chuck Pagano

Room Temperature

Chuck Pagano and the Colts lost their first game of the year. This isn't exactly a big surprise, as the team is clearly in heavy rebuilding mode.

The Colts are not expected to be a playoff team in Pagano’s first season, so he definitely has some time to turn things around.

By the end of the season, Pagano will just need to win four or five games to avoid the hot seat heading into his second year. But at the moment, his seat is room temperature and holding steady, regardless of Week 1’s outcome.

 

Ron Rivera

Warm

Things were looking up for head coach Ron Rivera heading into the 2012 season. But then Tampa Bay showed up and gave Carolina a rude wake-up call and put some unwarranted Super Bowl predictions on hold.

Rivera won six games in his rookie season and is looking to improve upon those numbers with a more experienced Cam Newton and an improved defense.

He fell short of expectations in Week 1, and if the Panthers can’t show signs of improvement, Rivera could be ousted after only two seasons as head honcho.  

After the Panthers' loss in the season opener, I think Ron Rivera's status just got warmer.

Mike Mularkey

Room Temperature

The Jaguars were hoping to get Mike Mularkey his first win Sunday, but they came up a little short against the Vikings.

This loss may be disappointing to the team and fans, but his job status is stable considering this is his first year as head coach on a team that’s clearly looking to build a winner over time.

Mularkey’s seat is neither hot nor cozy here—he’s just getting started, and the outcome of one game won’t change much at this point.

Sean Payton

Cozy

This is an interesting and unique year for Sean Payton as a head coach, considering his suspension for the entire season by commissioner Roger Goodell for his contributions in the "Bountygate" scandal.

After a Week 1 upset by the Redskins, Payton’s value as head coach is only amplified.

Before the start of the season, Sean Payton’s status as the coach of the Saints was pretty cozy. It should only get more stable as the Saints struggle to replicate the success from previous years.

Ironically, if the Saints win a Super Bowl, it actually makes Payton’s status as the head guy more of a question mark. But that's about the only thing that can happen to change Sean’s cozy status as the head coach going into 2013.

Mike Munchak

Room Temperature

Last year, Mike Munchak managed to pull more out of the Titans than most experts thought possible.

As a result, he also set a high bar for repeating that type of success this season, as the organization feels they’ve only improved the talent level and experience.

The Patriots showed Munchak and the Titans what a Super Bowl-caliber team is really like, as Tennessee was taken to school on both sides of the ball for the better part of four quarters.

Fortunately for Munchak, the success he had last year should be enough to buy him a little time to build a playoff contender.

Locker is a young QB with a lot of raw talent, and he’ll need time to develop as the starter. As long as the Titans manage to stay competitive, Mike Munchak’s job should be safe.

Greg Schiano

Room Temperature

In his first season as an NFL head coach, Greg Schiano orchestrated a big-time win against a very talented division opponent, the Carolina Panthers.

Schiano is not expected to take this team deep into the playoffs or anything, and he will be given time to make this group his own.

With a great first win and a ton of young talent, look for Schiano’s seat to only get more comfy moving forward.  

John Fox

Cool

Fox is on the right track in Denver and off to a great start in the Peyton Manning era after an important victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

His seat is definitely more cool than it is hot, and John Elway has expressed a ton of support for his coach.

With the addition of Manning to the organization, expectations are extremely high in Denver.

Fox’s squad would have to implode on itself for his job to be in trouble. But at the same time, he hasn’t proven nearly enough to start getting too cozy just yet. This season will be a big test for Fox and the Broncos to see if they can handle the high expectations.

Ken Whisenhunt

Cool

Watching the Cardinals this preseason made it very hard to remember how good of a coach Ken Whisenhunt really is.

He's the same guy who took the over the lowly Cardinals a few years back and managed to lead them all the way to a Super Bowl appearance.

Sure, the Cards have problems on the offensive line, as well as with their QB situation, but you have to appreciate what Whisenhunt has been able accomplish during his tenure in Arizona for the most part.

If the Cardinals finish last in the division this year, Whisenhunt will undoubtedly be on the hot seat in 2013, but it seems unlikely to anticipate a scenario where he will not return as the head coach after this season.

Week 1’s performance may have been responsible for moving his seat status from room temp to cool.

Romeo Crennell

Warm

Don’t expect the leash to be very long for head coach Romeo Crennel.

The Chiefs organization will expect immediate success in Kansas City, and anything short could cost him his job.

Week 1’s loss has heated up Romeo’s seat substantially, considering the way they were blown out of the water. The last thing you want to see from a team with the talent level of Kansas City are losses that aren’t even competitive.

The only reason Crennel is the current head coach is because he finished strong as interim coach last season, and the players lobbied for the retention of his services. Should the Chiefs fail to make the playoffs, we will soon be saying "Romeo, oh Romeo, wherefore art thou?”

Jeff Fisher

Cool

Jeff Fisher seems to have already made the Rams more competitive. The contrast between this year and last is clear.

Fisher’s seat is not hot at all after the Week 1 loss—he’s here for at least three years regardless of their record. The Rams understand this team is young and will need time to mesh and grow.

Luckily, the Rams have their franchise QB and can build around him.

Dennis Allen

Room Temperature

New GM Reggie Mckenzie recognizes the team he has inherited, and he won’t expect any miracles in 2012. But one thing he will expect is to see a dramatic decrease in penalties and a solid demonstration of the team’s willingness to compete.

If these elements are intact, Dennis Allen’s job should be safe.

Oakland seems committed to a stable coaching staff for the first time in well over a decade. The Raiders hope they’ve found stability in Allen. He'll have some room to grow as head coach, so his seat won’t be hot for the rest of the year.  

Jim Harbaugh

Cozy

If Jim Harbaugh’s job wasn’t secure before the start of the season, the 49ers’ win in Lambeau field against perhaps the most talented team in the league might have done the job.

Harbaugh’s turnaround of the organization and general style of coaching is hard to ignore.

He has brought an attitude, confidence and identity to the club that’s beginning to be the envy of the league. Harbaugh can rest easy in his cozy chair as the wins just keep on coming.

Norv Turner

Hot

Norv Turner’s job is all but lost, and he hasn’t even played a single game yet.

The only way Norv can keep his job at this point is if he gets to an AFC Championship game—anything less and it’s adios, Mr. Turner.  

The seat really doesn’t get much hotter than it is for Norv. He has worn out his welcome in San Diego and was only retained because of the desperate pleas by Philip Rivers, who lobbied heavily to A.J Smith to give him one last chance.

Unfortunately for Smith, this is a make-or-break year for him as well, and it all hinges on the coaching ability of Norv Turner.

Just making the playoffs won't cut it in San Diego this year. The organization has completely lost its patience and is all but set for a complete overhaul from the top down.

 

Pete Carroll

Warm

Carroll’s seat was room temperature going into Week 1, having led the Seahawks to a division win two years ago. But losing to the Cardinals is an ominous start for a team that was supposed to give the 49ers a run for their money for the division.

The Seahawks need to produce more offensively if they are going to compete in the West. But who is going to step up and score points on the this team beyond Marshawn Lynch?

Obviously things need to turn around quickly, as Carroll’s seat has just become warm with a terrible opening-game performance.

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