2012 Fantasy Football Final Running Back Rankings Before Week 1

For the first time in my 20 years of playing and writing about fantasy football, the running back position is the toughest position to figure out heading into the season. With many teams turning to the RBBC and even more players coming off of or currently dealing with injuries, figuring out which way to go in your draft was (or still IS if you have a draft coming up) a nightmare compared to seasons past.

That's why those of us in the fantasy industry put together these lists—to give the reader a well-informed gauge of what can be expected from these players during the upcoming season.

With that, here are Pyromaniac.com's Top 25 running backs with some detailed analysis to chew on for awhile:

25. Donald Brown (Ind)

Brown is a hard guy to like and will undoubtedly be passed up in many fantasy drafts this season, but don’t fall asleep on this guy because with the situation that he’s currently in, he might come back to bite you in the ass.

Do I believe that Donald Brown is really all that good? No, not really, but one thing I DO know is that whenever a team starts a rookie quarterback all season (which the Colts will do with Andrew Luck), the position that benefits the most fantasy-wise is running back. Check out what Marshall Faulk did in Peyton Manning’s first year in 1998; or what MJD did last year with Blaine Gabbert; or what Peyton Hillis did with Colt McCoy in 2010; or Thomas Jones with Mark Sanchez in ’09; or Michael Turner with Matt Ryan in ‘08; etc…

All I’m saying is to keep an eye on the fourth-year back out of Connecticut this season. You might be surprised.

24. Shonn Greene (NYJ)

Big-time feast-or-famine pick here. Shonn Greene has been one of the more polarizing running backs for fantasy owners the past couple of seasons, yet some refuse to let go of the potential he showed as a rookie (especially during the playoffs) in 2009. Others will point to his substandard numbers in 2010-11, of course, which they should.

The reality is that Greene’s game is pretty mediocre at this point and will only get better if the Jets re-commit to the running game they exhibited in 2009. Greene could wind up with 300-plus carries if the Jets decide to go that route and be in position to put up some huge numbers.

Whatever happens, Greene's numbers will still take a hit due to the presence of the anomaly named Tim Tebow, who WILL steal goal-line carries from him.

The best thing going for Greene at this point is that the Jets refused to bring in a top-notch receiver to play alongside Santonio Holmes, so they might actually be forced to run the ball. Either way, Greene is one of the more frustrating fantasy RBs in the league.

23. Kevin Smith (Det)

Jahvid Best is on the PUP list to start the season and who knows if he'll even make it back at all this year. Mikel Leshoure is coming off ACL surgery and hasn't even played a down of real NFL football yet.

Basically, Kevin Smith has a wide open track to a full-time starting gig for quite awhile.

If he stays healthy and impresses over the first month or so, the starts COULD actually last the entire season. In fact, when he DID get the chance late last year, he impressed mightily, so it's not so far-fetched to think he can do it again in an explosive offense like the Lions'.

22. Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)

Bradshaw has both the talent and heart to be a great NFL running back, but the obstacle he can’t seem to get past is the injury bug. He’s only 26 years old at this point so by no means should he be disregarded, but being only 5’9”, 198 pounds, I have a tough time believing he can take on a full load for an entire season.

The Giants may have released Brandon Jacobs, but they also grabbed David Wilson in the first round of this past draft to compete with Bradshaw for the starting gig. Bradshaw will win…at first…but don’t be surprised to see Wilson interrupt his fantasy season on more than one occasion this year.

21. Darren Sproles (NO)

How do I even begin to describe Darren Sproles. He’s pretty much a jitterbug without the Barry Sanders crazy legs, yet produces fantasy-wise at almost the same rate. He absolutely exploded in the “Reggie Bush role" last season and should have a stranglehold on that role for years to come.

But as for 2012, he might actually be Brees’ second favorite target as he is a matchup nightmare (like Jimmy Graham) whenever he’s on the field. In 2011, he averaged nearly seven yards per carry—which was the most of any regular RB in the league—but his biggest asset is his pass-catching ability as he was targeted an incredible 111 times and hauled in a career-high 86 passes last season.

With Robert Meachem gone and the Saints' head coach sipping margaritas on the couch all season, look for Brees to depend on one of the most dependable midget RB in the league this year and expect similar numbers to last season.

20. Frank Gore (SF)

So Frank the Tank finally made it through a full 16-game season again—his first since 2006—though it wasn’t easy as Gore saw his usual share of bumps and bruises along the way. The 49ers, however, made sure not to blow too hard on their house-of-cards RB as they tapered back his touches throughout the season giving him 20 or more touches in only half the 49ers games.

Because of this, Gore’s fantasy numbers suffered as he accumulated just 30 more total yards while catching 29 less passes than he did in 2010…when he played in only 10 games!

With capable backups in RB Kendall Hunter, Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James in tow, I can’t see Gore as much more than a marginal RB2 in 2012, especially since the ‘Niners strategy of taking the load off Gore last season seemed to work well in bringing them to the NFC Championship game.

Consider the seven-year pro a high risk/medium reward fantasy option this upcoming season.

19. Michael Turner (Atl)

Does anybody else hear the hiss of a slow leak whenever the name ‘Michael Turner’ is mentioned? Yeah, me too.

Strangely enough, though he’s three years older and has been in the league three years longer than both Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew, Turner actually has 46 less touches in his career than AP and a staggering 340 fewer touches than MJD.

What I think I’m trying to say here is that Turner may have more left in the tank than you might think, but caution would still be the advised approach here. His final 2011 statistics stand up pretty well against the top RBs in the league, but it was obvious he was tiring down the stretch.

Besides, Atlanta is trending towards a pass-heavy offense this season, so not only am I expecting a sizable decrease in overall touches, but likely a drop in touchdowns as well. He’s still an RB2, but has a very limited upside at this point.

18. Stevan Ridley (NE)

BenJarvus Green-Ellis hit free agency and cruised town to Cincinnati where the bucks were found, so there will be a lot of potential in this New England offense for young Mr. Ridley.

The Law Firm supposedly had an off year last season, yet he still managed to garner 11 rushing touchdowns, most of which will likely go to the powerful Ridley in 2012.

Believe it or not, the Patriots have been in the Top Six in rushing touchdowns each of the last six seasons, a trend likely to continue in 2012 with the 220-pound Ridley at the helm.

Stevan may have a couple of guys like Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen to contend with for overall touches, but he’s obviously the guy to have a bead on this season as he already won the starting job. BIG-TIME sleeper alert here.

17. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax)

Aside from all my worries about whether MJD is in "game shape" yet or just how long it will be before he starts getting 20 carries a game again, here’s what I have to say about what MJD did in 2011.

Every defense the Jaguars went up against last season 100 percent knew he was getting the ball, yet they still could not stop him. What the Wrecking Ball did in turn was lead the league both in carries (343) and rushing yards (1,606) despite coming off of offseason knee surgery and being game-planned against on a weekly basis. He was 20 yards short of his first 2,000 total yards season, but it wasn’t for lack of trying as he easily surpassed his career-high in touches with 386 on the year.

Now, for as amazing as all of these stats were, it’s also easy to see how they could take their toll on Jones-Drew in 2012, especially considering his situation. The 5’7”, 208-pound RB has had 300-plus rushing attempts in each of the last three seasons (well, 299 in 2010, but what’s one extra carry) adding up to the most of any back in the league by a decent margin.

My guess is that the soon-to-be 27-year-old will have another fine year once he gets rolling, but who knows exactly when that will be at this point. It also wouldn’t shock me to see him either get injured and miss a few games or at least see his average numbers go down due to a decent-sized usage of Rashad Jennings.

Either way, I'm personally staying clear of him this year.

16. Willis McGahee (Den)

I was thoroughly impressed with the grit Old Man McGahee displayed in his first season as a Bronco…even if he only managed to squeak out five TDs on the year.

It seems he more than made up for it with his yardage, though, as McGahee was one of only two running backs in the entire league to have seven 100-yard games last season (Arian Foster). Crazy, right?

A repeat performance from the soon-to-be 31-year-old Willis might be tough, especially with an all-purpose rookie about to crawl up his ass (Ronnie Hillman, and we all know how much Peyton Manning loves making his rookie RBs into studs), but the potential is there in this offense, especially with the upgrade at the QB position.

Chalk him up as a middling RB2 with middling upside.

15. Steven Jackson (StL)

Despite receiving more than 275 touches for the seventh year in a row, Steven Jackson could (again) do no better than just so-so in the stat column. You can’t really fault him too much as it’s tough for a player to reach his fantasy potential while playing for a team that’s put up the worst record in the league (37-91) since he joined them in 2004.

However, his touchdown rate has the potential to increase with the expected improvement across the rest of the offensive unit while his streak of seven-straight seasons of 1,000-plus yards (in two of those seasons he only played 12 games) will no doubt stay intact.

Whatever the case, as far as having him on your fantasy team, S-Jax is a lot like playing blackjack in the casinos—sometimes you’re up a little, sometimes you’re down a little, but you’re always better off playing roulette if you want a real chance at the big bucks.

Basically, don’t make the mistake of over-drafting him, but he’s certainly a solid RB2.

14. Doug Martin (TB)

The 5’9”, 223-pound Doug Martin has gotten the starting nod for Week 1 and I'm betting he never looks back.

The thing about Martin compared to LeGarrette Blount is that he’s an every-down player who not only packs a huge punch, but also happens to do well in Blount’s two biggest problem areas—blocking and receiving.

The comparison I’ve been hearing for Martin ever since he was drafted is that he has Ray Rice-like capabilities, a comparison coach Greg Schiano confirmed after their second preseason game. These are mighty strong words indeed, but if true, then Martin could be a fantasy gem as early as this season.

13. Trent Richardson (Cle)

Richardson came out of college considered to be the best RB prospect since Adrian Peterson and will be put in the featured-back role as soon as he’s healthy enough to take on a full load. However, exactly when that will be is a bit up in the air as he recovers from an unexpected scope of his left knee.

Still, his talent is undeniable and he really doesn’t have much mileage on his legs after being Alabama’s featured back for just one season (was behind Mark Ingram prior to 2011).

It’s rare nowadays for an RB to be a three-down back the way RIchardson is, so he’s certainly worth the risk despite his recent knee issue, but it’s also pretty rare for a rookie RB to dominate the way some think he will.

If you take him as your RB2, you should be happy, but I wouldn’t feel so confident with him atop your fantasy depth chart as an RB1.

12. Marshawn Lynch (Sea)

Color me crazy, but I just don’t see that uber potential as a fantasy back that some of the other “experts” out there see. Does that mean I believe he’s a candidate for Dud of the Year? Not quite, but it seems to me there are more roads leading toward the abyss (especially considering his recent DUI) than to the ever-desired pot of fantasy gold.

The ferociousness with which he runs made him the Surprise of the Year in 2011, but can anybody really keep up that style of play, especially after dropping seven-plus pounds from last season?

Even so, he still only averaged 4.2 yards per carry and now that he has his big contract, will he really be grinding for that extra yard every play like he did in 2011? I highly doubt it.

The good thing here is that Seattle seems fully committed to riding “Beast Mode” for as long as he lasts and if he can garner over 20 touches/game like he did in 2011, it’s possible he could rub noses with the Top Five again this season…but don’t count on it.

11. Matt Forte (Chi)

Check this out:  Even though Forte missed the final four-and three-quarter games of the 2011 season, he still had more total yards, the same amount of total touchdowns and most importantly—more fantasy points than Chris Johnson did in a full 16-game season.

Now we all know CJ28 had an off year, but the comparison still shows just how dominant Forte was up until his injury (sprained MCL).

As for the 2012 season, you gotta love the potential Matty has in this offense. With former offensive line coach and run-friendly Mike Tice taking over as the offensive coordinator for the departed Mike Martz, Forte could see 300-plus touches and likely more TDs in the stat column as well (regardless of Michael Bush because the Bears will score more this season).

Also, with Brandon Marshall on board, defenses will no longer be able to key in on him week after week.

The closest comparison I can come up with for Forte right now is Arian Foster (without the goal-line prowess), as both their overall game and frame/build are almost identical.

If the Bears offensive line continues to improve (which it should), then watch out for this kid.

10. Fred Jackson (Buf)

If C.J. Spiller had done poorly with his opportunity when Jackson went down last season, I would have Freddy ranked up farther in the Top 10 for sure. However, Spiller flourished, so I can’t put Freddy any higher.

F-Jax certainly proved he can be a full-time RB in this league and top-five fantasy guy as he averaged the second-most yards from scrimmage per game in 2011, but the fact is Spiller did the same thing during the last five weeks of season while he was a starter, so the Bills might be looking to use him a little more.

You also have to remember that Spiller was a top-10 overall draft pick for the Bills in 2010, so he’ll undoubtedly be in the mix as long as he’s healthy, but Jackson DID just sign a team-friendly deal, so they might look to exploit him a bit as they’ve already paid him the only guaranteed money he got.

Jackson just turned 31 and could be a risky fantasy pick here, but his legs are young and the rewards could be well worth it.

9. Adrian Peterson (Min)

I hate having to put AP down this far in the rankings, but there are just too many questions for me to move him up. If it turns out he takes on 15-20 touches in Week 1 (as AP28 says he wants to and HC Leslie Frazier hopes he can), then Purple Jesus might end up close to the top-five where he belongs while making about 28 million fantasy owners kick themselves for avoiding him in their drafts.

However, it’s a risk taking a running back coming off of ACL/MCL/meniscus surgery, so you’re probably better off waiting around until he’s the eighth or ninth RB in line to grab him.

Still, adversity has ALWAYS brought the best out in Peterson, so I’m betting on him proving his doubters wrong and coming through this situation better than people think.

8. Jamaal Charles (KC)

Plain and simple:  Regardless of how healthy he is or how ready he is to take on a full-time role again, Jamaal Charles has every bit of skill it will take to be a top-10 fantasy back in 2012. Period.

When healthy, he’s one of the most electric backs in the entire NFL and a threat to take it to the house on any given play. Fantasy owners would do themselves a huge favor by pulling up some old clips of his mind-boggling runs while remembering his 2010 season.

In case you forgot, Charles out-gained Adrian Peterson by almost 200 yards on 53 less carries that year while putting up 103 more yards than Chris Johnson on a whopping 86 less carries.

He’s already stated that he’s 100 percent back to normal and has his “mojo” running full stride again, while his backup, Peyton Hillis, has already seen enough of Charles to say that he’s easily one of the best RBs in the league.

Basically, if he happens to slip in your draft—which he probably will—then he could end up being the steal you need to win your league.

7. DeMarco Murray (Dal)

The Cowboys drafted the 227-pound Murray out of Oklahoma last season to take the place of Marion Barber and hopefully compete with Felix Jones to be the team’s starter. In Week 6, Felix proved to be exactly what everyone already suspected he was—an injury-prone, third-down back with game-changing ability, yet no chance whatsoever to become a bell-cow—so Murray got the call.

All he did the following weekend was set a Dallas rushing record of 253 yards on 25 carries, including a 91-yard TD run on his first touch of the day. The fantasy world went ballistic, but the hysteria would be short-lived as Murray was lost for the year after breaking his right ankle in Week 14.

Murray will be the Cowboys early-down back (at least) in 2012, so his potential to end up on the top-10 fantasy totem pole is certainly there.

His large frame and shocking 4.4 speed might be able to move him up the scale even further than this, but with the Cowboys offensive line being as craptastic as it is, this ranking is probably his ceiling.

6. Ryan Mathews (SD)

It’s easy to see just how much potential Ryan Mathews has as a fantasy player, and now it seems he’ll have every opportunity to take advantage of it…as soon as he returns from his collarbone injury of course.

With Mike Tolbert moving out to Carolina and Ronnie Brown/Jackie Battle inked to back him up, Mathews should have full reign of the Chargers backfield for as long as he can stay upright.

If he CAN stay healthy after his return (which is a decent-sized “if”), there’s no reason to think that the third-year back out of Fresno State won’t get 300-plus touches and somewhere in the 2,000 total yards range.

Hell, in just 14 games last season, Mathews put up 1,546 total yards on 272 combined rushes and receptions, so it’s not too far-fetched at all to see a significant rise in both categories with Tolbert gone.

Add in an increase in touchdown opportunities and you could be looking at your breakout candidate of the year here regardless of his preseason injury.

5. Chris Johnson (Ten)

Ugh! What an awful, dismal, sickening, suicidal-thought-inducing nosedive into fantasy hell Chris Johnson took last year. The fact that he kept blaming his catastrophic failures on everyone else—most notably his offensive line—was tougher to stomach than that time I mistakenly brushed my teeth Preparation-H instead of toothpaste.

That said, you have to forget these sorts of things and move on, something you absolutely need to do in order to be a successful fantasy player.

What I’m saying here is that you need to forget about Johnson's 2011 season and realize he still has more talent than almost any other RB in the league. Things will be different in Tennessee this season anyway.

First of all, the athletic-as-hell Jake Locker will be their starting QB, and if you don’t remember what CJ2K did while Vince Young was running the show during the second half of 2009, go look it up. It's crazy good.

Second, Kenny Britt (when he gets on the field), Kendall Wright, Nate Washington and Jared Cook will all be drawing defenses away from the line of scrimmage on a weekly basis.

Third, the offensive line has gelled pretty well at this point and is ready to open some holes.

Basically, don’t let the past dictate the future here as CJ just might add another 2K to his name in 2012.

4. Darren McFadden (Oak)

The only dig on Run DMC is that he’s injury-prone. However, a lot of people ended up letting Matthew Stafford fall out of fantasy starter status last year for the same reason. Let this comparison be a lesson to you: Don’t let past injuries guide what you do for your fantasy team in the future.

Darren McFadden is easily one of the most talented running backs in the league and one of the few able to get his team (and yours) six points from anywhere on the field. He hasn’t been a big touchdown guy up until this point, but a lot of that had to do with the Raiders use of Michael Bush along the goal-line. Bush, however, is Matt Forte’s vulture to deal with now, so McFadden should see his TD numbers rise this upcoming season.

The injury factor will undoubtedly scare a bunch of owners away in their drafts, but wouldn’t it be even more frightening to have to face a healthy Run DMC in the fantasy playoffs knowing you could have had him on your team…yet were too much of a cream puff to pull the trigger?

Darren has already come out to say that he’s “determined” to play all 16 games this season, so if he actually does what he says, believe me, you’ll wish you had been the one to take the “Stafford chance.”

3. Ray Rice (Bal)

With the 2011 offseason addition of fullback Vonta Leach (awesome move) and the Ravens early committal to Rice as their 2011 goal-line back (ballsy, but an equally awesome move), I can’t say I was all that surprised to see the massive numbers Rice put up last season.

Well, maybe a little surprised.

The 2,000-plus total yards he compiled was a repeat effort from his 2009 sophomore season, so that wasn’t too much of a shock—but 15 combined touchdowns?!?! Seriously? I mean, the kid had just 14 total TDs over his entire three-year career before last year’s blow-up.

Now, with a year as the bell-cow under his belt and just rookies Bernard Pierce and Bobby Rainey behind him, all signs point to Rice being able to duplicate, if not better his stats in 2012.

2. LeSean McCoy (Phi)

LeSean McCoy wasn’t the first player in NFL history to put up a combined 20 touchdowns in a single season—the milestone had been attained on 17 different occasions before he did it in 2011 (most recently by DeAngelo Williams in 2008). However, at just 23 years of age, Shady was the youngest player to ever accomplish the feat…by almost a full two years!

It truly amazes me how one player can have such an incredible season while the rest of his team can underachieve so drastically.

Quandary aside, I have a feeling 2012 will be a bit better for the Eagles and that McCoy’s role will generally stay the same. I can’t see another 20 touchdowns in his future, but 15 are certainly attainable, as is 2,000 total yards.

His 48 catches last season should have yielded far more than a measly 315 yards (6.6 YPC) and while his 1,624 total yards was indeed respectable, he’ll almost certainly have more this season if he ends up more involved in the offense like he wants to be.

Look for McCoy to be a candidate for the top slot again and make sure you draft him accordingly.

1. Arian Foster (Hou)

Looks like the undrafted kid out of Tennessee is for real, folks. As he did in 2010, Foster once again led the league in fantasy points per game this past season beating out LeSean McCoy by nearly a point/game.

With the Texans not changing much at all on the offensive side of the ball this season, you’d be hard-pressed to find a running back with more potential to nail down the 2012 crown.

So even though the NFL has suddenly become a more QB/WR-friendly league, you won’t want to let a fantasy talent like Foster pass you by in the first couple of picks of your draft.

Click here to see the 26-80 Ranked RBs plus Rankings For All Other Positions

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