The quest to beat Joe Lunardi, pickin' the NCAA bracket (after games of 3/14)

So, having heard all the guys at ESPN talk about the greatness of Joe Lunardi, I wanted to see, putting up 10 days of hard work into it (starting last Friday, March 7), to see if I could be close, or even better. So what I'm going to do is list the 65 teams in an outline for a basic list, then go in ridiculous detail underneath in matchup form to explain why. Hopefully, it'll be informative, if not put people to sleep. I also will try to update each day, though the info for the teams won't change much day-to-day unless moved or played. My basic info of use is RPI, Strength of schedule, and record vs RPI top 100, as well as generic record/conference type/conference record setup. Since I didn't feel like spending money on ESPN's InsideRPI, I used the daily RPI from Ken Pomeroy's website at www.kenpom.com/rpi.

Going by seed in East, Midwest, South, West order (official conference champs in bold, estimated champs in all CAPS).

Most team changes from yesterday came via one-bid favorites that lost (including UC-Santa Barbara, Nevada, Alabama St, and both Sam Houston St and Stephen F Austin. Crazy. Ohio St is knocked out by St. Joe’s, who shocks Xavier. The winner of St Joe’s/Temple gets that last in spot, though they would be automatic.  Villanova is the next knocked out if any strange occurrences happen, like if Kent St loses to Akron, or Minnesota wins the Big Ten, or Virginia Tech beats UNC. Lots of games left, still, with a day and a half to go. SEC tournament issue may cause a pickle for a team like Georgia who is still around and may be a co-champion (if they go that route) and could be up for a potential at-large and take a spot that way.

Through games of March 14:

1. NORTH CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, MEMPHIS, UCLA (in caps)

2. Kansas, Duke, TEXAS, GEORGETOWN

3. Xavier, Louisville, Stanford, WISCONSIN

4. Mich St (+1), Vanderbilt, UConn, Marquette

5. Notre Dame, Drake, Butler, Indiana (-1)

6. Pitt (+1), Wash St, BYU (in caps), Clemson

7. Purdue (-1), Gonzaga, Texas A&M, West Virginia

8. Miami-FL, KENT ST, Texas A&M (+2), UNLV (no caps)

9. USC (no caps), Kansas St (-1), Arkansas, Mississippi St

10. St. Mary’s (-1), Kentucky (+1), Illinois St, S Alabama

11. Oregon (+1), Baylor, UMass, Arizona

12. Davidson, Villanova, ST JOSEPH’S (new), W Kentucky

13. Siena (+1), George Mason, BOISE ST (new), Oral Roberts

14. Cornell, Cal St Fullerton (new), Austin Peay (+1), San Diego

15. American (official), Belmont, Winthrop (+1), UMBC (in caps)

16. (Play-in) MISS VALLEY ST (new)/Mount St Mary's, MORGAN ST, Portland St, UT-ARLINGTON (new)

We're going to have a short blurb about the last 10 out to further explain.

Virginia Tech: Not enough good wins (currently one against NCAA teams), but I will hop them over Villanova with win over UNC Saturday and into the tourney.

Dayton: Tough loss to top 15 team in Xavier. Only out because of 8-8 conference record in A-10. Probably done, despite top 35 RPI. Chris Wright never returned. Still have 9 top 100 wins, hard to overlook.

Ohio St: Loss knocks them down, 6 top 100 wins good, but only 2 top 50, and not enough else. Cold compared to A-10 hotness in St Joe’s and Temple. Pretty much done.

VCU: Thought they were very done after losing in CAA semis, but now probably one of top 5 teams not in now. Still about 98% out.

New Mexico: Killed self with MWC tourney loss to Utah, only team removed from my bracket from yesterday. Also about 98% out.

Ole Miss: Similar to New Mexico, will not be "next Arkansas", I say done, despite valiant overtime effort against Georgia. And done.

Arizona St: Tough, tough loss, but I've viewed them as the 7th best team in the Pac-10, behind 'Zona and Oregon. RPI ultimate killer for them despite 5 top 50 wins, especially since now in the 80s. I will not put them in my bracket, so that’ll be a miss if they get in, like some predict.

Syracuse: Killed with Nova loss.

Maryland: Killed with BC loss.

Temple: Making noise with A-10 tourney run, did finish 2nd in regular season, should be discussed now with finals run, but will need to win tournament outright to get bid automatically.

UAB/Houston: Killed with pathetic losses to Southern Miss and UTEP, respectively.

Breakdowns

East

1. North Carolina: 30-2, RPI 2, SOS 3, ACC #1
Good: 9-1 vs RPI top 50, 18 wins vs top 100, most in nation, more good wins than given credit for, especially over mid-seeds like Davidson, BYU, Ohio St, Kentucky, Nevada, and Kent St, not to mention conference wins over Duke (split), Clemson (twice) and Miami.
Bad: Loss to Maryland, only top 20 win this year was last week against Duke. Lots of good wins, few great wins.
Why at seed: too many good wins, rpi 2, ACC regular season champ

16a. Miss Valley St: 14-15, 239, 315, SWAC est. champ

Not going to say much on them, except estimated to be champ in the worst conference in Division 1, and even worse now as the #3 seed as favorite in SWAC title game Saturday.

16b. Mount St Mary's: 18-14, 159, 197, NEC champ

In by way of beating Sacred Heart Wednesday. Lost all 3 games played against top 100 opponents. Best win of the year was NEC semifinal win over #1 seed Robert Morris.

8. Kent St: 27-6, 26, 120, MAC auto guess
Good: Nine top 100 wins, a ton for a mid-major. Non-conference wins over Illinois St, George Mason, Cleveland St, and St Mary's. Will be in even if don't win automatic bid.
Bad: Bad losses to Detroit, Bowling Green and Toledo. 8 of 10 wins over top 100 against 51-100, and no top 30 wins (did lose to Xavier and UNC).
Why seed: A little lower than some think, typically based off of history of committee underseeding mid-majors, kind of a prove it idea.

9. USC: 21-11, 29, 9, Pac-10 #4
Good: Won six of last eight, including dominant win over Stanford. Also solid wins over Oklahoma, Arizona, and UCLA. Also went down to the wire against Kansas and Memphis. Win over Arizona St may help move up, UCLA win would definitely move them up.

Bad: Couple bad losses, against Cal and a completely horrible one against #313 Mercer.
Why seed: Got themselves safely in with 2 big wins this week. 12 top-100 wins always appreciated. Could still move up. Good win over Arizona St Thursday, hard fought loss to UCLA Friday. Probably be an 7 or 8 seed when said and done.

5. Notre Dame: 24-7, 25, 81, Big East #4
Good: Only one of six losses against team not in NCAAs (Ga Tech), dominant home team, beat Kansas St, Villanova, Syracuse, Pitt, Marquette, UConn, and West Virginia.
Bad: Not as good on road, only 7-7 in road/neutral games.
Why seed: Lots of good wins, Big East has been getting bumps up by the committee, so about right for them, not real good away from home may hurt them in tourney. Did probably contribute to early loss to Marquette Thursday.

12. Davidson: 25-6, 36, 129, Southern champion
Good: Played tough opponents close, UNC loss by 4, Duke loss by 6, and UCLA by 12. Won 22 straight.
Bad: No wins over top 100 teams, would have kept them out of the tourney in my view.
Seeded here b/c bubble team if hadn't won conference, would have been here if in anyway.

4. Michigan St: 25-7, 14, 50, Big Ten #3
Good: 8-5 vs top 100 teams, 6 wins vs top 50, non-conf wins over BYU and Texas. Conference wins over Purdue (split), Indiana (split), and Ohio State (split). Played UCLA to the wire.
Bad: 12-6 in conference good, not great, similar statement about non-conference schedule. Bad losses to Iowa and Penn St.
Why seed: Because they're Michigan State and a 12-win team in Big Ten, and showed well in competitive non-conference games against BYU, UCLA and Texas. Moves up one with poor Indiana performance and solid probable bubble-busting win over Ohio St.

13. Siena: 22-10, 67, 117, MAAC champion

In by winning MAAC championship over Rider. 14-seed due to decent RPI, and 2 impressive wins, over Stanford and Boise St in non-conf. Could be an upset pick.

6. Pittsburgh: 24-9, 18, 32, Big East #6
Good: Beat Duke in New York, and Oklahoma St in non-conference. Beat Georgetown, Syracuse, West Virginia, and Villanova in Big East play.
Bad: 10-8 in Big East decent, not great, lost 4 of last 7. Bad losses to Cincinnati and Rutgers don't help.
Why seed: Drops a little due to mid-season loss of Mike Cook, hasn't played quite as well after losing him for the season. In safely though, and 7-7 vs top 100 solid. Win over Louisville starts trek upwards, move up another slot with Marquette win, may make a trip to 5-seed with win over G’Town Saturday.

11. Oregon: 18-13, 58, 33, Pac-10 #6

Good: Lots of solid wins, 8 top 100 and 4 top 50 wins, big non-conference win over Kansas St on the road, played 6 road-neutral games out of conference. Beat Arizona twice, Arizona St (split) and Stanford (split) in Pac-10 play.

Bad: 13 losses, 9-9 in conference and 1-8 against the top 4 teams in the conference; while played road games in non-conference, only 2 against NCAA quality opponents (163 SOS).

Why seed: last in, more good wins than other close teams, Pac-10 really good conference this year, worthy of 6. Probably safe, barring 3 surprising tourney titles. A-10 already has one of them.

3. Xavier: 27-6, 9, 20, A-10 auto guess
Good: Dominant non-conference performance, beating Kent State, Indiana, Creighton, Kansas St, and Belmont. 14-2 in underrated A-10 conference, did beat Dayton twice, UMass, and St Joe's (split). 12 wins over top 100 teams.
Bad: Relatively under the radar, outside of 2-game run in neutral site, 0 top 30 wins.
Why seed: Lots of good wins, I think A-10 will be disrespected a little bit, and did lose 5 times anyway. Still at 3 with St Joe’s on a roll.

14. Cornell: 21-5, 65, 263, Ivy champion

In automatically as Ivy league champ, top 70 RPI gets them a bit higher than typical for Ivy teams. Only top 100 win was over MAAC champ Siena.

7. Purdue: 24-8, 45, 113, Big Ten #4
Good: Great conference run, 15 wins, beat Louisville non-conference, beat Wisconsin twice, Ohio St, and Michigan St.
Bad: 3 bad non-conf losses, including to Wofford and Iowa State.
Why seed: Hot team, but poor non-conference schedule will cost them a little on the seeding part, probably won't go below 6-seed. Only six top 100 wins very low for power conference team, with teams like outside of bubble Arizona St with seven. Dropped slot with loss in Big Ten tourney Friday.

10. St Mary's: 24-6, 38, 136, WCC #3
Good: Great non-conference run for mid-major team, beating Drake, Oregon, Seton Hall and Ohio. All losses to top 90 teams. Split with Gonzaga.
Bad: Lost twice to San Diego, blown out in toughest game to Texas, only 2 wins over top 50 teams.
Why seed: Dropped a little after not making WCC Finals at least. Safe in with 2 top 30 wins, and 7-6 record against top-100.

2. Kansas: 28-3, 8, 60, Big 12 #2
Good: Lots of big wins, no losses outside of the top 100, all of those also true road games. Beat Arizona and USC non-conference. Also beat Oklahoma,Baylor, Texas A&M and Kansas St (split) in Big 12 play.
Bad: Not anything huge, but road loss to Ok State keeping them down a little right now, also "only" 16 games against top 100 teams, little less than those above them.
Why seed: Lots of big wins, but not real tough non-conference schedule keeps them from #1 seed jump, can still get there if win Big 12 tournament.

15. American: 21-11, 89, 158, Patriot champion

In officially as champion of Patriot league after win over Colgate Friday. Won’t be lower than a 15, may be a 14 by the time Sunday rolls around. Beat Maryland at Maryland in December.

Midwest

1. Tennessee: 28-3, 1, 1, SEC #1
Good: Lots of it. RPI 1, SOS 1, NCAA high 11 wins against top 50 teams, 14-2 against dominant conference, only team to beat Memphis, beat West Virginia, Xavier, Gonzaga, Ohio State, and Memphis non-conference.
Bad: Only loss that wasn't down to the wire in a true road game was 19-point thrashing to Texas in New Jersey, something none of the other top 7 teams really experienced, a dominant loss. SEC down a little this year doesn't help their resume.
Why seed: Pushing for #1 overall, tournament win may get them there, not automatically in at #1 if lose in SEC quarters, but should be safe here, but played it close with S Carolina.

16. Morgan St: 21-9, 115, 285, MEAC auto guess

Here because estimated as MEAC champ with 14-2 conference record, top RPI, and #1 tournament seed. Still a ways to go. Probably 2nd or 3rd worst conference in Division I. Best win: American. Title game against Coppin St, who was 7-9 in the MEAC coming in.

8. Miami-FL: 21-10, 32, 36, ACC #4
Good: 8 wins vs top 100 teams, non-confernce wins over VCU and Mississippi St, ACC wins over Clemson (split), Virginia Tech, and Duke (split).
Bad: Only 8-8 in conference play, bad losses to Winthrop and Boston College. Pretty creampuff non-conference in general (135 SOS).
Why seed: 21 wins, .500 in ACC, and solid non-conference wins and few bad losses. High RPI as well. Seed could vary greatly, anywhere from 6 (if make ACC tourney run) to about 9 with quarterfinal matchup with bubble team Va Tech Friday. I have them at 8 after loss.

9. Kansas St: 19-11, 50, 28, Big 12 #5
Good: Beat Kansas. Have best player in nation in Michael Beasley. Played a solid schedule. 10 Big 12 wins means something this year (went 10-6 last year and didn't get in), also beat Oklahoma and Texas A&M in conference.
Bad: Lost every real tough non-conference game, blown out by Xavier. Also lost road games to Missouri and Nebraska. Lost four of last six.
Why seed: Solid wins, six top 100 wins good, but 6-10 against that group. Should be good, but not completely safe. Did drop, and loss to A&M not bad, but resume looks less impressive, though Kansas win looming huge for them at the time.

5. Drake: 26-4, 10, 72, MVC champion

In by way of defeating Illinois St (soundly) in MVC final last Sunday.

Why seed: 7 top 50 wins, though 3 were Illinois St. Did also beat Butler in Indiana. 15-3 in solid conference, lots of decent wins. Worst loss to Missouri St. Will probably still be 4-5 seed. Worthy of a 4-seed. See if they get it.

12. Villanova: 20-12, 51, 45, Big East #8
Good: .500 in Big East play, 3 top 50 wins and 7 top 100 wins, beat George Mason and Temple non-conference. Beat Pitt (split), Syracuse (split), Uconn,and West Virginia in conference.
Bad: Bad losses to Rutgers, DePaul, and Cincinnati. Only 9-9 in conference iffy. Lost 5 consecutive games at one point.
Why seed: Essentially spot for 8th Big East team. Currently my last team in… even after getting blown out by Georgetown. Not comfortable at all though.

4. Vanderbilt: 26-7, 11, 37, SEC #2
Good: 11-top 100 wins, non-conference over Austin Peay, Utah State, S Alabama and Umass. Conf wins over Kentucky, Miss St, and Tennessee.
Bad: All wins listed in good section home or neutral. Only 10-6 in conference play, 4th best. Lost 2 of last 3.
Why seed: Could drop if lose early in SEC tournament. Probably won't move up. Placed here because top-11 RPI hard to ignore, drop a little with too much home court reliance.

13. George Mason: 23-10, 62, 127, CAA champion

In as conference champions, but were relatively close to bubble, so should have a seed around 12-14. Nice to see them back. Did beat Dayton, Kansas State, Cleveland St, and VCU this year.

6. Washington St: 24-8, 19, 42, Pac-10 #3
Good: 12 top 100 wins, non-conf over Baylor and Gonzaga, both on the road. In conference, wins over USC twice and Oregon twice. 3rd best team in Pac-10 means auto credibility.
Bad: No top 25 wins, not great non-conference besides Baylor-Zags trip.

Why seed: 24 wins, 3rd best team in Pac 10, lots of solid wins, but none great to move up, could move up or down a slot in tourney. Move to semifinals keep them at a 6 at worst and maybe a 5.

11. Baylor: 20-10, 43, 43, Big 12 #6

Good: Decent non-conf, with wins over Notre Dame and to-the-wire games against Washington St and Arkansas. Conference wins over Tex Tech, Kansas St, and 5 OT thriller over Texas A&M. 8 of 9 losses to top 50 teams, 17-2 against below top 50.
Bad: Only 7-9 against top 100 teams, not many real good wins away from home outside of Notre Dame game, which was neutral. Only finished 4-6.
Why seed: Pretty good in, 20 wins and high RPI and above .500 mark in solid conference gets them pretty in, are a little worrisome after drop to Colorado in Big 12 quarters.

3. Louisville: 24-8, 12, 5, Big East #2
Good: 14-4 against the Big East always applauded. Road win at UNLV, Also beat Kentucky and had solid non-conference run. Conference wins include Marquette twice, Georgetown (split), Pitt, Notre Dame, and Villanova. Won 9 of last 11.
Bad: Lost 3 non-conf games (BYU, Dayton, Purdue) though all good teams, 2 (relatively) bad Big East losses to Cincinnati and Seton Hall.
Why seed: Hot team besides 3-point loss at G'Town this past weekend, can push for #2 if win tournament. Can drop with another loss, but probably safe at #3. Might drop if team at 4 or 5 seed makes unexpected tourney run after Big East quarters loss.

14. Cal St Fullerton: 22-8, 86, 207, Big West auto guess

Only of top 4 cluster with UCSB, Cal St Northridge, and Pacific, to make it to the finals and take on UC Irvine. Irvine would be either a 15 or likely a 16. CSF will be here, and maybe but unlikely a 13.

7. Gonzaga: 25-7, 30, 93, WCC #2
Good: solid non-conf schedule, wins over W Kentucky, Virginia Tech, UConn, and was the regular season champ in the WCC, advancing to the finals.
Bad: Couldn't seal deal, lots of non-conf losses, though most good, also included Texas Tech.
Why seed: 8-7 against top 100, lots of high quality games for WCC team, but couldn't finish off WCC champ, so probably stuck around here.

10. Kentucky: 18-11, 47, 13, SEC #5

Good: 12-4 in SEC, never has not got in with 12 SEC wins, big conference wins over Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. Six of seven non-conference losses were against top 100 teams, so not as bad as perceived. Playing well without Patrick Patterson.
Bad: 6-7 in non-conference, including awful loss to Gardner-Webb. Only 5-10 against top 100 teams.
Why seed: In because of SEC play, and only SEC play, so lower than three other SEC teams they had better conference records against. Not completely in yet.

2. Duke: 27-4, 4, 10, ACC #2
Good: Play like Duke. 14 top-100 wins. Non-conference wins over Marquette, Wisconsin, Davidson, Cornell, and Temple. Also beat Miami (split), UNC (split), and Clemson.
Bad: bad loss to Wake Forest, also was only double digit loss of year. That's about it.
Why seed: Lots of good wins, but 4 losses actually a lot this year to be a #1 seed. I think will be a #1 if win ACC Tournament.

15. Belmont: 24-8, 79, 231, Atlantic Sun champion

In by winning Atlantic Sun conference, both regular season and tournament. Best wins over Cincinnati and Alabama. Did lose to #311 Campbell and #325 Kennesaw St.

(halfway there)
South

1. Memphis: 32-1, 3, 25, C-USA auto guess
Good: 6 top 50 wins, 14-1 against top 100 teams. Beat Oklahoma, Uconn, USC, Georgetown, Arizona, Siena, Gonzaga in non-conference. 16-0 in conference.
Bad: Play in Conference USA.
Why seed: Could be best in nation, but mid-major type conference keeps everyone from feeling comfortable about it. Should be #1 even with loss in tournament if happens.

16. Portland St: 21-9, 88, 227, Big Sky champion

Won Big Sky tournament midweek to get in officially. Did lose to Eastern Washington and San Jose St, but beat IUPUI and Akron. Might move up to 15 by tomorrow.

8. Texas A&M: 23-9, 41, 58, Big 12 #5
Good: 5 top 50 wins, beat Oral Roberts and Ohio St in non-conference, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas St and Baylor.
Bad: 222 SOS in non-conf, only 8-8 in Big 12, not great, lost at home to Nebraska and Ok State (both top 100, but barely). 6-5 away from home.
Why seed: In because of solid conference record in underrated conference, 8-9 vs top 100 solid for bubble team, not safely in though. Need to not look bad in tourney. Win over Iowa St Thursday when all the bubbles lose gets them in more comfortably. Win over Kan St bumps them some up above them, and to an 8. On a roll. Will be between 7 and 9 when said and done depending on effort against Kansas Saturday.

9. Arkansas: 21-10, 31, 34, SEC #4
Good: 5 top-50 wins. Beat VCU and Baylor non-conf as well as Oral Roberts. 9-7 record in SEC good enough to get in, did beat Ole Miss and Miss St as well as Vanderbilt in SEC play.
Bad: Bad losses to Appalachian St, South Carolina, and Georgia. Vanderbilt only top 30 win, lost five of last eight.
Why seed: 21 wins and over .500 in conference usually a good sign. 8-5 vs top 100 also keeps them good. Safe in, helped self with SEC tourney run, might move up slot or two by tomorrow.

5. Butler: 29-3, 16, 126, Horizon champion
Good: Great record, 10-3 against top 100 is tremendous. Beat Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, and Ohio State in consecutive games. All 3 losses against top 86 teams and by 7 or less.
Bad: Only one top 50 win. Perhaps not many tough games could drop their seed some.
Why seed: 1-1 vs top 50 not great, though 10-3 vs top 100 is. Pretty set at 4-6 range with tourney championship.

12. St Joseph’s: 21-11, 42, 55, A-10 auto guess

Good: Big finish, beat Villanova and Siena in non-confernce, beat UMass, Xavier twice and Temple.

Bad: Not in comfortably, bad losses to Holy Cross and George Washington, loss to me will knock them back out, probably have to be auto bid to get in.
Why seed: Barely in, but 8 top 100 wins and tough schedule, so might help. Still could be out if lose in A-10 final, though at-large resume is actually pretty solid.

4. Connecticut: 24-8, 17, 30, Big East #3
Good: 6 top 50 wins, beat Indiana in non-conference. Beat Marquette, Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, Notre Dame (split), and West Virginia in Big East.
Bad: "only" 8-6 against top 100, not great for a seed as high as 3. Pretty bad to lose to Providence twice. Pretty cupcake non-conference.
Why seed: 13-5 in Big East, lots of big wins in "best" conference in nation.

Everyone loves Jim Calhoun. Probably won't move up, but may move down 1 with poor Big East tourney showing, and loss in Big East Quarters leaves them at 4-5 area.

13. Boise St: 23-8, 93, 204, WAC auto guess

Only chance of getting in will be winning the WAC over New Mexico St Saturday. New Mexico St will be in the same spot, very similar profiles, survived 12-4 semi battles with Utah St and Nevada. Pretty straight toss-up. Could be fun to watch, and a surprise for either, especially for NM St after Reggie Theus went up to Sacramento. Either team will probably actually be a 14 tomorrow.

6. BYU: 27-6, 23, 105, MWC est champ (#1)
Good: Dominant home team as well, class of MWC, great non-conference run. Beat Louisville in Vegas, and played both UNC and Michigan St to the wire. Also beat New Mexico twice and split with UNLV in conference.
Bad: Really not too many great wins, 8-6 against top 100 teams, could drop in seed.
Why seed: Lots of wins, solid conference, and matched up well in non-conference tourney in Vegas. If go anywhere this week, it would be down, though probably stuck here with trip to MWC final with fellow tourney team UNLV.

11. Massachusetts: 21-10, 44, 68, A-10 #2
Good: Won six in a row, beat Syracuse and Houston non-conference, and beat Dayton and Rhode Island twice in the A-10. 6-7 vs top 100.
Bad: Three bad losses to Northern Iowa, St Louis, and Fordham (home). Lost most of their tougher non-conf games, including IUPUI and Vandy.
Why seed: In by a little now, A-10 very good conference, should get some credit, but mid-major upsets and poor conference performance could hurt them, even on the bubble. Scheduled pretty tough non-conference relatively. Loss in A-10 quarters killer, puts them pretty close to the bubble, probably in last 4 in.  A-10 success story helps them out.

3. Stanford: 26-6, 15, 61, Pac-10 #2
Good: 14-4 in Pac 10, Non-conf win over Texas Tech in Dallas, conference wins over USC, Arizona twice, Washington St twice, and Oregon. 2 of 4 conference losses in OT.
Bad: Absolute cupcake non-conf schedule, only 3 top 150 teams in schedule, and lost to Siena. Lost last 2 games of the season.
Why seed: 13 top-100 wins, great conference record in one of top conferences in nation keep them high. Struggles continue in Pac-10 tourney, may drop a seed more, also can move up with strong run. Move up one after really good win over Arizona.

14. Austin Peay: 24-10, 84, 202, OVC champion

Won conference championship last Saturday to get in, RPI puts them as a 14-15 seed, both top 100 wins over Belmont. Competitive in games against Vanderbilt,Memphis, and Utah St.

7. Oklahoma: 22-10, 26, 18, Big 12 #3
Good: Great turnaround from struggling last year. Jeff Capel's done great job, and Blake Griffin's been huge. Good conference run at 9-7, wins over Baylor twice and Texas A&M. Beat West Virginia, Gonzaga, and Arkansas as well.
Bad: 3 conference losses, though all to current NCAA teams (Memphis, USC, and SFA), but bad conference losses at Colorado and Nebraska.
Why seed: Mix of good and bad wins, but probably third-best team in 5 or 6 bid conference puts them there. 10 top-100 wins always should get in. Easier game than expected with Colorado coming up Friday. Probably settled at 7, may threat for 6 if beats Texas.

10. Illinois St: 23-9, 35, 73, MVC #2
Good: 5-5 against top 100 teams, beat Wright St and Cincinnati in non-conference, beat Creighton twice and Southern Illinois twice in MVC play. 13-5 pretty solid as #2, went to MVC Tourney finals.
Bad: Bad losses to Indiana St and E Michigan, not much in terms of competition in non-conference. Best win was RPI #51 Creighton.
Why seed: Enough decent wins to get in, high enough RPI, good conference record in solid conference, but Drake destroying them last Sunday didn't make them look great. Should be fine.

2. Georgetown: 27-4, 7, 39, Big East auto guess
Good: 5 top 50 wins, beat UConn, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Marquette, Syracuse (split) and Louisville (split). Only 4 losses. 15-3 in Big East.
Bad: Only 9 wins against top 100, which isn't many for a 2-seed, very easy non-conference schedule (130 SOS), only tough game lost by 14 to Memphis.
Why seed: Big East champ gives them a boost, stuck here after not doing enough in regular season to threat for a 1-seed enough.

15. Winthrop: 20-11, 107, 177, Big South champion

In by defeating UNC-Asheville (and human giant Kenny George) last Saturday, a lower seed than last year's 13-seed by going only 10-4 in conference, also lost to High Point and Coastal Carolina, both bad losses. Did beat Miami and Georgia Tech. Moved up with shock loss in specific to the Southland frontrunners. Tourney committee might bump them to 14, but I think they’ll be here.

West

1. UCLA: 29-3, 6, 22, Pac-10 auto guess
Good: 16-2 in Pac-10 play, 19-2 against top 100 teams, beat Maryland, Michigan St, and Davidson in non-conference play. Beat Stanford twice, Oregon twice, Washington St twice, Arizona twice, and USC (split).
Bad: Bad loss to Washington, struggled mightily to win last two games, not much else.
Why seed: Wins Pac-10, 28 wins, only 3 losses for major conference program gets them ahead of Kansas and Texas right now, not guaranteed a 1-seed though. Pretty safe as of right now.

16. UT-Arlington: 16-11, 150, 212, Southland auto guess

Picked as auto guess due to highest RPI remaining after shocker win and having both Stephen F Austin, a near bubble team, and Sam Houston St, an RPI top 100 team, losing in the semis.
Biggest wins were Stephen F Austin in the regular season and SH St in the tourney Friday.

8. UNLV: 24-7, 27, 78, MWC #2
Good: 9-6 vs top 100, did beat Nevada and San Diego in non-conference. 12-4 in solid MWC, did beat BYU (split), San Diego St twice, and New Mexico (split).
Bad: Bad losses to Air Force and Utah, blown out in only top 20 opponent in Louisville at home.
Why seed: Probably could move down, lot of doubters, but figured sweet 16 effort last year helps some, with most of the same group. Should be in 7-10 range. Trip to MWC finals gets them in the higher part of that group.

9. Mississippi St: 22-9, 34, 54, SEC #3
Good: 12-4 in SEC play, never not got in before (same logic helps Kentucky as well), strong recently, won 7 of last 9, beat Kentucky, Arkansas, and Mississippi (split).
Bad: Rest of non-conference cupcakes. Only 4-9 against top 100, not real good, lost every tough non-conference game, didn't win any that would be considered good.
Why seed: Very good in conference play, and played some tough opponents in non-conf, though didn't win any of them. Odd setup actually favors them over Georgia-Kentucky winner getting stuck with Miss St in 2^nd game of day Saturday.

5. Indiana: 25-7, 21, 56, Big Ten #2
Good: 5 of 6 losses all against top 15 teams, big wins over Purdue, Michigan St in conference, Illinois St and Kentucky non-conference.
Bad: Loss to Penn St last week was awful. Kelvin Sampson issue always a problem. Besides that, not too much.
Why seed: 8-5 vs top-100 always good, seemed to do ok post-Kelvin Sampson to maintain high seed. Drops a slot after early loss, even if it was miracle-ish.

12. Western Kentucky: 25-6, 40, 139, Sun Belt champion

Bubble team if didn't win conference tourney Tuesday night, I would have them out. Seeded 12 because if in probably would be there. Only top 100 win home game against Nebraska in overtime. Now in officially. Two Sun Belt teams in tourney odd, but likely.

4. Marquette: 23-9, 20, 19, Big East #5
Good: Beat Wisconsin, IUPUI, and blew out Okla State in non conf, all losses to top 50 teams. Beat Notre Dame, Pitt, and Villanova in conference.
Bad: Lost 2 of last 3, not great non-conference schedule (157 SOS NC), 4 losses by 14 or more.
Why seed: Solid Big East team, only 11-7 in conference, not great. Good record in dominant conference though. Moving up with 2 very good wins in tourney already including against Notre Dame, probably be in 4-5 range, probably 5, but 4 for now after loss to Pitt.

13. Oral Roberts: 23-8, 52, 155, Summit champion

Had been estimated in, and was made official Tuesday night after beating #2 seed IUPUI. Top 65 RPI gets them pretty high seed for one-bid conferences, top wins over Oklahoma State and IUPUI (2 of 3).

6. Clemson: 22-8, 22, 46, ACC #3
Good: 10 top-100 wins, didn't fade like years past, 10-6 in ACC always viewed as impressive. Beat Mississippi St and Purdue in non-conference. Also beat Miami and took UNC to OT in both games they played.
Bad: No top 25 wins, hasn't looked great in ACC, and played pretty cupcake non-conference outside of 2 mentioned above.
Why seed: Lot of good wins, high RPI, and being the 3rd best team in the perceived greatness of the ACC gets them up here. Can move a slot up or down in tourney, but not much.

11. Arizona: 18-14, 39, 2, Pac-10 #5
Good: #2 schedule in country, 10 top-100 wins, non-conference wins over Texas A&M, UNLV, Houston, and CS-Fullerton, took Kansas to OT. Conference wins over Washington St (twice) and USC.
Bad: 8-10 conference record, lost 6 of last 8, not very good record in general.

Why seed: In because of ridiculous schedule, and lots of good wins. 12 of 14 losses against top 76 teams. Barely in though, and really barely in after losing to Stanford in Pac-10 quarters, should send thank you card to about 9 bubble teams that lost Thursday.

3. Wisconsin: 27-4, 13, 69, Big Ten auto guess
Good: Every loss was against a good team, all top 40 teams, Big non-conference win over Texas at Texas, dominant in Big Ten, beating Indiana twice, Ohio St twice, and Michigan State. 5 top 50 wins.
Bad: Couldn't beat Purdue, 1-2 in non-conference games against teams in top 90, pretty easy schedule pre-Big Ten. Big Ten not real good this year anyway.
Why seed: Rewarded for winning Big Ten regular season outright, fact doesn't lose against bad teams will be appreciated. Could move up a slot with solid tourney run, I don't think they'll drop.

14. San Diego: 20-13, 94, 100, WAC champion

In by shocking the WCC world and beating St. Mary's and Gonzaga on back-to-back nights. Won't have luxury of playing in San Diego in the NCAAs like they did in WCC tournament. Did also beat Kentucky this year.

7. West Virginia: 23-10, 28, 40, Big East #7
Good: 3 top 50 wins, 11-7 Big East record, top non-conference wins are UMBC and Winthrop, did lose to Tennessee by 2 and Oklahoma in double OT. Beat Marquette, Pitt, and Syracuse in conference.
Bad: Bad loss to Cincinnati, not many pleasing wins. Non-conference schedule smells of cupcakes.
Why seed: 11 win Big East team, probably the 7th best team. Did go 5-8 against top 100 which isn't bad. "Horrible schedule" still is 48th, which is in the top 1/6th of nation. Moving up with surprising great run in Big East tournament including beating UConn Thursday, kind of like Syracuse 2 years ago. Didn’t go quite as far though. Probably a 7 or 8 seed.

10. South Alabama: 24-6, 37, 124, Sun Belt #2
Good: 3 top 50 wins great for Sun Belt team, also beat Mississippi St and took Vanderbilt to 2 OT in Vandyland. Beat W Kentucky, the only real tough competition outside of Mid Ten St who shocked them in the tourney, twice.
Bad: Couldn't win conference tourney, MTSU not viewed as real good team, 2 losses to them tough, loss to North Texas not real good either.
Why seed: Great record, examples of ability to compete against top opponents sneaks them in, though they will be feeling bubble pressure.

2. Texas: 26-5, 5, 6, Big 12 auto guess
Good: Co-Big 12 champs, 10-3 against top 50, 16 top 100 wins, ridiculous non-conference wins (though not quite as much as Memphis) with wins over Tennessee (by 19 and in NJ), UCLA in LA, St Mary's, and Oral Roberts. 13-3 in conference includes win over Kansas, over Oklahoma twice, Baylor twice, Kansas State, and Texas A&M (split).
Bad: 5 losses more than any other in top 8, bad loss to Missouri. Two double digit losses not great either. Struggled to win games recently.
Why seed: Many big wins, but too many losses to be a #1. Could still move up to a #1 with Big 12 tourney win, probably safe at #2. Might like it more there if go to Houston for regionals in South region.

15. Md.-Baltimore County: 22-8, 91, 270, America East auto guess

In as #1 seed and highest RPI in conference. Currently into finals, will either be them or would be play-in game candidate Hartford. Best win was against American this year.

Made it through? Congratulations.