NL MVP Rankings: Ryan Braun Charges Toward Andrew McCutchen and Buster Posey

Has the race for the National League Most Valuable Player Award come down to two players? 

It appears that way with the Pittsburgh Pirates' Andrew McCutchen and San Francisco Giants' Buster Posey putting up big numbers for two of the NL's playoff contenders. The playoff race could end up being decided by one of those teams not making it to the postseason.

But is there still room for a player from a non-playoff contender in the NL MVP race?

Ryan Braun is putting together another MVP-caliber performance, leading the NL in home runs and RBI. Yet the Milwaukee Brewers are far out of contention in the NL Central. If winning the division gave Braun the edge in last year's NL MVP race, it only seems fair that his team's poor performance would hurt his chances this year. 

Please let us know what you think about the current NL MVP contenders. Do you think this is a two-man race. Is there anyone you feel is snubbed from the top five? Your feedback is always welcome in the comments.

The following five players look like the leading candidates for NL MVP honors. All the statistics mentioned here are current as of Aug. 22.

5. Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals

Last week: No. 4

The good news for Matt Holliday's candidacy for NL MVP is that the St. Louis Cardinals have leapfrogged over the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Central and wild-card playoff standings. 

As of Aug. 23, the Cardinals would be one of the NL's five playoff teams and would get a shot at defending their World Series championship in the postseason.

The bad news for Holliday's candidacy is that it's difficult to determine whether or not he's actually the most valuable player in the St. Louis lineup.

While Holliday has the best numbers across the board, he actually doesn't lead the Cardinals in any major offensive category. Yadier Molina has the team's highest batting average at .321. Carlos Beltran leads the Cards with 28 home runs and 85 RBI. Allen Craig's .941 OPS is the best on the team.

But Holliday ranks fifth among Cardinals batters with a .302 batting average and second with 23 homers and second with 81 RBI. His .381 on-base percentage and .518 slugging percentage are third. 

Should WAR determine who's most valuable in the Cards' lineup? Fangraphs rates Molina as the Cards' best hitter at 5.0 wins above replacement to Holliday's 4.5. Baseball-Reference has Molina as the fourth-best player in the NL with a 4.9 WAR. Holliday isn't in the top 10. 

Do we have the wrong Cardinals player on this list?

4. David Wright, New York Mets

Last week: No. 3

David Wright keeps on hitting for the New York Mets. In seven games since last week's rankings, the Mets third baseman batted 7-for-25 (.280). 

He ranks among the NL's top five hitters with a .318 batting average. His .412 on-base percentage is the second-best in the league. And his .928 OPS is the NL's fourth-best mark.

WAR loves Wright and loves him very much. Both Fangraphs (6.1 wins above replacement) and Baseball-Reference (5.6 WAR) rate him as the second-best player in the NL. 

Yet that performance hasn't been enough to keep the Mets in contention. As of Aug. 23, the Mets are 57-67, which leaves them 20 games behind the Washington Nationals in the NL East. They're now tied with the Philadelphia Phillies for third place and are just one game ahead of the Miami Marlins for last place. 

Wright's team could very well finish in last place. Players on last-place teams don't win MVP awards. (Not since Andre Dawson did it with the Chicago Cubs in 1987, that is, but Dawson led the majors with 49 homers and 137 RBI that season.) 

As great an individual performance as Wright is having, the Mets' record is going to kill his chances at winning NL MVP.

3. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers

Last week: No. 5

For most of our top contenders for the NL MVP award, it was a quiet week. But not for Ryan Braun.

In his past seven games, Braun hit 12-for-27 (.444) with two doubles, one triple, five home runs and eight RBI. 

That pushed Braun's batting average back over .300 for the season. His triple-slash average is .308/.384/.602. With a .986 OPS, Braun has the second-highest mark in the NL and third-best in the majors. 

Braun's 34 home runs are the most in the NL, and his 85 RBI are tied for the league lead. One overlooked part of his game is his speed. His 20 stolen bases are tied for 15th in the NL. 

Those numbers will put Braun high on many NL MVP ballots. But the Milwaukee Brewers' record will prevent him from finishing at the top. At 57-66, the Brewers are in fourth place in the NL Central, 18 games behind the Cincinnati Reds.

(And remember, the NL Central has six teams. In any other division, Milwaukee would be second to last.) 

I've maintained throughout the season that Braun's offseason drug testing controversy would have prevented him from strong MVP consideration as well. Does his performance this season dismiss any suspicion that Braun is a product of excess testosterone? I would say yes. 

Plus, with the recent suspensions handed out to Melky Cabrera and Bartolo Colon, Braun's offense (overturned or not) looks less glaring. 

2. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants

Last week: No. 2

With a three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the San Francisco Giants appear to be pulling away in the NL West. 

Obviously, plenty can change with six weeks remaining in the regular season. But if the Giants finish on top in their division, beating out the Dodgers in a tough race, that certainly helps Buster Posey's MVP candidacy. 

Posey is building his own case with his play on the field, of course. His ability to come through with big hits certainly doesn't hurt his cause. In the Giants' 4-1 win over the Dodgers on Aug. 21, Posey's two-run single in the first inning gave San Francisco a lead it never gave up. 

With a .327 batting average, Posey holds the third-best mark in the NL. He leads the Giants with 19 home runs and 79 RBI, far outdistancing his teammates in both categories. 

If Melky Cabrera's 50-game PED suspension increased the burden on Posey to produce runs, he hasn't buckled from the responsibility. 

Posey should also win extra points for his excellent defense at the game's most demanding position. He's only allowed one passed ball all season, and his 20 wild pitches allowed are the fourth-best total in the majors.

Only four other catchers have thrown out more base stealers than Posey's 26. Unfortunately, his percentage suffers due to Giants pitchers doing a poor job of handling base runners. Opposing teams have attempted 71 stolen bases against Posey, the highest total in baseball. 

1. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates

Last week: No. 1

If the Pittsburgh Pirates fall out of playoff contention, will that kill Andrew McCutchen's MVP chances?

The Pirates now hold third place in the NL Central, 8.5 games behind the Cincinnati Reds and a half-game back of the Cardinals. That also knocked them out of one of the NL's wild-card playoff spots by a half-game.

Obviously, the standings are close, and the Pirates could easily regain their postseason bid. But if the Pirates fall short of the playoffs while the Giants make it in, could that be the difference between McCutchen and Buster Posey, as it was with Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp last year?

As the Pirates have slid, so has McCutchen. In his past seven games, the Pirates center fielder batted 7-for-26 (.226) with three RBI. That's dropped his batting average to .349. McCutchen still leads the majors in that category, but is now just three percentage points above Melky Cabrera setting up a potentially awkward batting title in baseball history. 

McCutchen still leads the majors with a .414 on-base percentage, and his .995 OPS is the best-mark in the NL. His 24 home runs are the NL's seventh-highest total, and his 76 RBI rank T12th.

If McCutchen is slumping, he appears to be on a turnaround. According to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review's Rob Biertempfel, McCutchen feels he's getting his timing back and is putting some really good swings on the ball. Could he soon return to his July when he hit .446 with a 1.249 OPS?

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