The Quest To Beat Joe Lunardi: Pickin' the NCAA Tournament Bracket (after games of 3/13)

So, having heard all the guys at ESPN talk about the greatness of Joe Lunardi, I wanted to see, putting up 10 days of hard work into it (starting last Friday, March 7), to see if I could be close, or even better. So what I'm going to do is list the 65 teams in an outline for a basic list, then go in ridiculous detail underneath in matchup form to explain why. Hopefully, it'll be informative, if not put people to sleep. I also will try to update each day, though the info for the teams won't change much day-to-day unless moved or played. My basic info of use is RPI, Strength of schedule, and record vs RPI top 100, as well as generic record/conference type/conference record setup. Since I didn't feel like spending money on ESPN's InsideRPI, I used the daily RPI from Ken Pomeroy's website at www.kenpom.com/rpi.

Going by seed in East, Midwest, South, West order (official conference champs in bold, estimated champs in all CAPS).

Lots of change after Thursday, but few team changes for in/out field, as most teams that could move up didn't. Oregon replaces New Mexico, and Villanova stays in... barely. Lots of ball to be played.

Through games of March 13:

1. NORTH CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, MEMPHIS, UCLA 

2. Kansas, Duke, TEXAS, GEORGETOWN

3. Louisville, Stanford (+1), XAVIER (+1), WISCONSIN

4. Indiana, Vanderbilt (-1), UConn (+1), Marquette (+1)

5. Notre Dame, Drake (-1), Butler, Mich St

6. BYU (in caps), Purdue, Wash St, Clemson

7. Gonzaga, Pitt, Miami-FL, West Virginia (+1)

8. Oklahoma, Baylor, KENT ST (+2), Kansas St, UNLV (no caps) (-1)

9. USC (no caps), St Mary's, Arkansas, Mississippi St

10. Ohio St (+1), Texas A&M, Illinois St, S Alabama (+1)

11. UMass (-1), Kentucky, Baylor (-2), Arizona

12. Davidson, Villanova, Oregon, W Kentucky

13. NEVADA, George Mason, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, Oral Roberts

14. Cornell, Siena, UCSB (in caps), San Diego

15. AMERICAN, Belmont, Austin Peay, UMBC (in caps)

16. (Play-in) ALABAMA ST/Mount St Mary's, MORGAN ST, Portland St, Winthrop

We're going to have a short blurb about the last 10 out to further explain.

Virginia Tech: Not enough good wins (currently none against NCAA teams), but I might hop them over Oregon with win over Miami Friday, and definitely with run to the ACC finals.

Dayton: Tough loss to top 15 team in Xavier. Only out because of 8-8 conference record in A-10. Probably done, despite top 35 RPI. Chris Wright never returned. Still nine top 100 wins is hard to overlook.

St. Joe's: Playing way into conversation with two decent conference wins. Quietly 20-11 and have 10 wins in A-10 play. If they win Friday, it might be enough to be strongly considered.

VCU: Thought they were very done after losing in CAA semis, but now probably one of top five teams not in now. Still about 95% out.

New Mexico: Severely damaged by their MWC tourney loss to Utah. Only team removed from my bracket from yesterday. Pretty much done.

Ole Miss: Similar to New Mexico, will not be the "next Arkansas." I say they are done, despite the valiant overtime effort against Georgia.

Arizona St: Tough, tough loss, but I view them as the 7th best team in the Pac-10, behind 'Zona and Oregon. RPI is the ultimate killer for them despite five top 50 wins, especially since now it is in the 80s.

Syracuse: Killed with Nova loss.

Maryland: Killed with BC loss.

Temple: Making noise with A-10 tourney run and did finish 2nd in regular season. They should be discussed with finals run, but probably need to win tournament outright to get bid automatically.

UAB/Houston: Killed with pathetic losses to Southern Miss and UTEP, respectively.

Just out: Dayton, Virginia Tech, Ole Miss, Syracuse, UAB, Florida, VCU, Maryland, Arizona St, St. Joe's, Houston

Breakdowns

East

 
1. North Carolina: 29-2, RPI 2, SOS 4, ACC No.1

Good: 9-1 vs RPI top 50, 19 wins vs top 100, most in nation, more good wins than given credit for, especially over mid-seeds like Davidson, BYU, Ohio St, Kentucky, Nevada, and Kent St, not to mention conference wins over Duke (split), Clemson (twice) and Miami.

Bad: Loss to Maryland, only top 20 win this year was last week against Duke. Lots of good wins, few great wins.

Why at seed: too many good wins, RPI No. 2, ACC regular season champ.

 
16a. Alabama St: 17-9, 189, 338, SWAC est. champ

Not going to say much on them, except they are the favorite to win the worst conference in Division I.

 
16b. Mount St Mary's: 18-14, 159, 197, NEC champ

In thanks to beating Sacred Heart Wednesday. Lost all three games played against top 100 opponents. Best win of the year was NEC semifinal win over No. 1 seed Robert Morris.

8. Oklahoma: 21-10, 25, 10, Big 12 No. 3

Good: Great turnaround from struggling last year. Jeff Capel's done great job, and Blake Griffin's been huge. Good conference run at 9-7, wins over Baylor twice and Texas A&M. Beat West Virginia, Gonzaga, and Arkansas as well.

Bad: Three non-conference losses, though all to current NCAA teams (Memphis, USC, and SFA), but bad conference losses at Colorado and Nebraska.

Why seed: Mix of good and bad wins, but probably third-best team in five or six bid conference puts them there. 10 top-100 wins always should get in. Easier game than expected with Colorado coming up Friday. Probably will move up a slot with win.

9. USC: 21-10, 30, 14, Pac-10 No. 4

Good: Won five of last six, including dominant win over Stanford. Also solid wins over Oklahoma, Arizona, and UCLA. Went down to the wire against Kansas and Memphis. Win over Arizona St may help move up. Another win over UCLA would definitely move them up.

Bad: Couple bad losses, against Cal and a completely horrible one against #313 Mercer.
Why seed: Got themselves safely in with 2 big wins this week. 12 top-100 wins always appreciated. Could still move up. Good win over Arizona St Thursday.

5. Notre Dame: 24-7, 23, 76, Big East No. 4

Good: Only one of six losses against team not in NCAAs (Ga Tech), dominant home team, beat Kansas St, Villanova, Syracuse, Pitt, Marquette, UConn, and West Virginia.

Bad: Not as good on road, only 7-7 in road/neutral games.

Why seed: Lots of good wins, Big East has been getting bumps up by the committee, so about right for them, not real good away from home and that may hurt them in tourney. Probably contributed to early loss to Marquette Thursday.

12. Davidson: 25-6, 35, 129, Southern champion

Good: Played tough opponents close, UNC lost by four, Duke lost by six, and UCLA by 12. Won 22 straight.

Bad: No wins over top 100 teams, would have kept them out of the tourney in my view.
Seeded here because they were a bubble team if they hadn't won their conference and likely would have got in.

4. Indiana: 25-6, 18, 55, Big Ten No. 2

Good: Five of six losses against top 15 teams. Big wins over Purdue, Michigan St in conference, Illinois St and Kentucky out of conference.

Bad: Loss to Penn St. last week was awful. Kelvin Sampson issue always a problem. Besides that, not too much.

Why seed: 8-5 vs top-100 is always good, seemed to do enough post-Kelvin Sampson to maintain high seed.

13. Nevada: 20-10, 71, 143, WAC automatic bid projection

Only chance of getting in will be winning the WAC. New Mexico St and Utah State would probably be seeded here as well, but Boise St would probably be a 14. All four of those teams finished 12-4 in conference play.

6. BYU: 26-6, 24, 111, MWC estimated champ (No. 1)

Good: Dominant home team, the class of MWC, and a great non-conference run. Beat Louisville in Vegas, and played both UNC and Michigan State to the wire. Also beat New Mexico twice and split with UNLV in conference.

Bad: Really not too many great wins, 8-6 against top 100 teams, could drop in seed.

Why seed: Lots of wins, solid conference, and matched up well in non-conference tourney in Vegas. If they go anywhere this week, it would be down.

11. Massachusetts: 21-10, 43, 64, A-10 No. 2

Good: Won six in a row, beat Syracuse and Houston non-conference, and beat Dayton and Rhode Island twice in the A-10. 6-7 vs top 100.

Bad: Three bad losses to Northern Iowa, St Louis, and Fordham (home). Lost most of their tougher non-conference games, including IUPUI and Vandy.

Why seed: In by a little now, A-10 very good conference, should get some credit, but mid-major upsets and poor conference performance could hurt them, even on the bubble. Scheduled pretty tough non-conference relatively. Loss in A-10 quarters killer, puts them pretty close to the bubble, probably in last 4 in.

3. Louisville: 24-8, 13, 5, Big East No. 2

Good: 14-4 against the Big East always applauded. Road win at UNLV, Also beat Kentucky and had solid non-conference run. Conference wins include Marquette twice, Georgetown (split), Pitt, Notre Dame, and Villanova. Won nine of last 11.

Bad: Lost three non-conference games (BYU, Dayton, Purdue) though all good teams, two to (relatively) bad Big East losses to Cincinnati and Seton Hall.

Why seed: Hot team besides three-point loss at G'Town this past weekend, can push for No. 2 if win tournament. Can drop with another loss, but probably safe at No. 3. Might drop if team at four or five seed makes unexpected tourney run after Big East quarters loss.

14. Cornell: 21-5, 68, 263, Ivy champion

In automatically as Ivy league champ, top 70 RPI gets them a bit higher than typical for Ivy teams. Only top 100 win was over MAAC champ Siena.

7. Gonzaga: 25-7, 31, 93, WCC No. 2

Good: solid non-conference schedule, wins over W Kentucky, Virginia Tech, UConn, and was the regular season champ in the WCC, advancing to the finals.

Bad: Couldn't seal deal, lots of non-conference losses, though most good, also included Texas Tech.

Why seed: 8-7 against top 100, lots of high quality games for WCC team, but couldn't finish off WCC champ, so probably stuck around here.

10. Ohio St: 19-12, 46, 17, Big Ten No. 5

Good: Big finish, beat Michigan St and Purdue, beat Syracuse and Florida in non-conference.

Bad: Not in comfortably, need probably in Big Ten Semis to get close to comfortable. Very much on bubble.

Why seed: Barely in, but six top 100 wins and tough schedule, so might help. Committee also seems to love Big Ten anyway. Still could be out if lose to Mich. St. in Big Ten Quarters.

2. Kansas: 27-3, 9, 60, Big 12 No. 2

Good: Lots of big wins, no losses outside of the top 100, all of those also true road games. Beat Arizona and USC non-conference. Also beat Oklahoma,Baylor, Texas A&M and Kansas St (split) in Big 12 play.

Bad: Not anything huge, but road loss to Ok. State keeping them down a little right now, also "only" 15 games against top 100 teams, little less than those above them.

Why seed: Lots of big wins, but not real tough non-conference schedule keeps them from No. 1 seed jump, can still get there if win Big 12 tournament.

15. American: 20-11, 95, 163, Patriot auto guess

Predicted in NCAAs as Patriot champ due to 10-4 conference record and highest RPI in conference, in the championship game as of now. Beat Maryland at Maryland in December.

Midwest

 
1. Tennessee: 27-3, 1, 1, SEC No. 1

Good: Lots of it. NCAA high 11 wins against top 50 teams, 14-2 against conference foes, only team to beat Memphis, beat West Virginia, Xavier, Gonzaga, Ohio State, and Memphis non-conference.

Bad: Only loss that wasn't down to the wire in a true road game was 19-point thrashing to Texas in New Jersey, something none of the other top seven teams really experienced, a lopsided loss. The SEC is down a little this year doesn't help their resume.

Why seed: Pushing for No. 1 overall and a SEC Tournament win may get them there, not automatically in at No. 1 if lose in SEC quarters, but should be safe here.

16. Morgan St: 20-9, 121, 286, MEAC auto guess

Here as the projected MEAC champ with 14-2 conference record, top RPI, and No. 1 tournament seed. Still a ways to go. Probably 2nd or 3rd worst conference in Division I.

Best win: American.

8. Kent St: 26-6, 28, 127, MAC auto guess

Good: Nine top 100 wins, a ton for a mid-major. Non-conference wins over Illinois St, George Mason, Cleveland St, and St Mary's. Will be in even if they don't win automatic bid.

Bad: Bad losses to Detroit, Bowling Green and Toledo. Seven of Nine wins over top 100 against 51-100, and no top 30 wins (did lose to Xavier and UNC).

Why seed: A little lower than some think, typically based off of history of committee under seeding mid-majors, kind of a prove it idea.

9. St Mary's: 24-6, 36, 139, WCC No. 2

Good: Great non-conference run for mid-major team, beating Drake, Oregon, Seton Hall and Ohio. All losses to top 90 teams. Split with Gonzaga.

Bad: Lost twice to San Diego, blown out in toughest game to Texas, only 2 wins over top 50 teams.

Why seed: Dropped a little after not making WCC Finals at least. Safely in with two top 30 wins, and 7-6 record against top-100.

5. Drake: 26-4, 11, 73, MVC champion

In by way of defeating Illinois St (soundly) in MVC final last Sunday.

Why seed: Seven top 50 wins, though three were against Illinois St. Also beat Butler in Indianapolis. 15-3 in solid conference, lots of decent wins. Worst loss to Missouri St. Will probably be a four or five seed.

12. Villanova: 20-12, 51, 43, Big East No. 8

Good: .500 in Big East play, four top 50 wins and seven top 100 wins, beat George Mason and Temple non-conference. Beat Pitt (split), Syracuse (split), Uconn, and West Virginia in conference.

Bad: Bad losses to Rutgers, DePaul, and Cincinnati. Only 9-9 in conference. Lost 5 consecutive games at one point.

Why seed: Essentially spot for eighth Big East team. Currently my last team in… even after getting blown out by Georgetown. Not comfortable at all though.

4. Vanderbilt: 26-6, 10, 38, SEC No. 2

Good: 11-top 100 wins, non-conference over Austin Peay, Utah State, South Alabama and UMass. Conference wins over Kentucky, Miss St, and Tennessee.

Bad: All wins listed in good section home or neutral. Only 10-6 in conference play good for fourth place. Lost 2 of last 3.

Why seed: Could drop if they lose early in SEC tournament. Probably won't move up. Placed here because top-10 RPI hard to ignore, drop a little with too much home court reliance.

13. George Mason: 23-10, 63, 128, CAA champion

In as conference champions, but were relatively close to bubble, so they should have a seed around 12-14. Nice to see them back. Did beat Dayton, Kansas State, Cleveland St, and VCU this year.

6. Purdue: 24-7, 37, 109, Big Ten No. 4

Good: Great conference run, 15 wins, beat Louisville non-conference, beat Wisconsin twice, Ohio St, and Michigan St.

Bad: Three bad non-conference losses, including to Wofford and Iowa State.

Why seed: Hot team, but poor non-conference schedule will cost them a little on the seeding part, probably won't go below 6-seed. Only five top 100 wins very low for power conference team, with teams like outside of bubble Arizona St with seven.

11. Kentucky: 18-11, 47, 13, SEC No. 4

Good: 12-4 in SEC, a conference where 12 SEC wins has always given teams a bid. Big conference wins over Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. Six of seven non-conference losses were against top 100 teams, so not as bad as perceived. Playing well without Patrick Patterson.

Bad: 6-7 in non-conference, including awful loss to Gardner-Webb. Only 5-10 against top 100 teams.

Why seed: In because of SEC play, and only SEC play, so lower than three other SEC teams they had better conference records against. Not completely safe yet.

3. Stanford: 25-6, 15, 75, Pac-10 No. 2

Good: 13-5 in Pac-10, Non-conference win over Texas Tech in Dallas, conference wins over USC, Arizona twice, Washington St twice, and Oregon. Two of four conference losses in OT.

Bad: Absolute cupcake non-conference schedule, only 3 top 150 teams in schedule, and lost to Siena. Lost last 2 games of the season, also.

Why seed: 12 top-100 wins, great conference record in one of the top conferences in nation keeps them high. Struggles continue in Pac-10 tourney, may drop an additional seed line, also can move up with strong run. Moved up one after really good win over Arizona.

14. Siena: 22-10, 70, 118, MAAC champion

In by winning MAAC championship over Rider. 14-seed due to decent RPI, and two impressive wins, over Stanford and Boise St. Could be an upset pick.

7. Pittsburgh: 23-9, 21, 37, Big East No. 6

Good: Beat Duke in New York and Oklahoma St in non-conference. Beat Georgetown, Syracuse, West Virginia, and Villanova in Big East play.

Bad: 10-8 in Big East is decent, not great, lost four of last seven. Bad losses to Cincinnati and Rutgers don't help.

Why seed: Dropped a little due to mid-season loss of Mike Cook because they have not played quite as well after losing him for the season. In safely though, and 7-7 vs top 100 is solid. Win over Louisville starts trek upwards, might move up even more.

10. Texas A&M: 22-9, 44, 58, Big 12 No. 5

Good: Four top 50 wins, beat Oral Roberts and Ohio St in non-conference. Texas, Oklahoma, and Baylor.

Bad: 222 SOS in non-conference, only 8-8 in Big 12, not great, lost at home to Nebraska and OK. State (both top 100, but barely). 6-5 away from home.

Why seed: In because of solid conference record in underrated conference, 8-9 vs top 100 solid for bubble team, not safely in though. Need to not look bad in tourney. Win over Iowa St Thursday when all the bubble teams lost gets them in more comfortably.

2. Duke: 26-4, 4, 7, ACC No. 2

Good: Play like Duke. 15 top-100 wins. Non-conference wins over Marquette, Wisconsin, Davidson, Cornell, and Temple. Also beat Miami (split), UNC (split), and Clemson.

Bad: bad loss to Wake Forest, also was only double digit loss of year. That's about it.
Why seed: Lots of good wins, but 4 losses actually a lot this year to be a No. 1 seed. I think will be a No. 1 if win ACC Tournament.

15. Belmont: 24-8, 80, 228, Atlantic Sun champion

In by virtue of winning the Atlantic Sun conference, both the regular season and tournament. Best wins over Cincinnati and Alabama. Did lose to #311 Campbell and #325 Kennesaw St.

South

1. Memphis: 31-1, 3, 26, C-USA auto guess

Good: Six top 50 wins, 13-1 against top 100 teams. Beat Oklahoma, Uconn, USC, Georgetown, Arizona, Siena, Gonzaga in non-conference. 16-0 in conference.

Bad: Play in Conference USA.

Why seed: Could be best in nation, but mid-major type conference keeps everyone from feeling comfortable about it. Should be No. 1 even with loss in tournament if happens.

16. Portland St: 21-9, 88, 227, Big Sky champion

Won Big Sky tournament to get in officially. Did lose to Eastern Washington and San Jose St, but beat IUPUI and Akron.

8. Kansas St: 19-10, 45, 31, Big 12 No. 1

Good: Beat Kansas. Have best player in nation in Michael Beasley. Played a solid schedule. 10 Big 12 wins means something this year (went 10-6 last year and didn't get in), also beat Oklahoma and Texas A&M in conference.

Bad: Lost every tough non-conference game, blown out by Xavier. Also lost road games to Missouri and Nebraska. Lost four of last six.

Why seed: Solid wins, six top 100 wins good, but 6-9 against that group. Should be good, but not completely safe. Can help or hurt themselves in tourney, very easily could drop.

9. Arkansas: 20-10, 41, 42, SEC No. 4

Good: Four top-50 wins. Beat VCU and Baylor non-conference as well as Oral Roberts. 9-7 record in SEC good enough to get in, did beat Ole Miss and Miss St as well as Vanderbilt in SEC play.

Bad: Bad losses to Appalachian St, South Carolina, and Georgia. Vanderbilt is their only top 30 win; lost five of last eight.

Why seed: 20 wins and over .500 in conference usually a good sign. 7-5 vs top 100 also keeps them good. Should be safe in, could help their seed with SEC tourney run.

5. Butler: 29-3, 16, 126, Horizon champion

Good: Great record, 10-3 against top 100 is tremendous. Beat Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, and Ohio State in consecutive games. All 3 losses against top 86 teams and by seven or less.

Bad: Only one top 50 win. Perhaps the lack of tough games could drop their seed some.

Why seed: 1-1 vs top 50 not great, though 10-3 vs top 100 is. Pretty set at 4-6 range with tourney championship.

12. Oregon: 18-13, 56, 22, Pac-10 No. 6

Good: Lots of solid wins, 8 top 100 and 4 top 50 wins, big non-conference win over Kansas St on the road, played 6 road-neutral games out of conference. Beat Arizona twice, Arizona St (split) and Stanford (split) in Pac-10 play.

Bad: 13 losses, 9-9 in conference and 1-8 against the top four teams in the conference. Played road games in non-conference but only 2 against NCAA quality opponents (163 SOS).

Why seed: last in, more good wins than other close teams, Pac-10 really good conference this year, worthy of 6. But might fall if VT beats Miami or an A-10 team like St. Joe's.

4. Connecticut: 24-8, 17, 28, Big East No. 3

Good: Six top 50 wins and beat Indiana in non-conference. Beat Marquette, Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, Notre Dame (split), and West Virginia in Big East.

Bad: "Only" 8-6 against top 100, not great for a seed as high as 3. Pretty bad to lose to Providence twice. Pretty cupcake non-conference.

Why seed: 13-5 in Big East, lots of big wins in "best" conference in nation.

Probably won't move up, but may move down one with poor Big East tourney showing and loss in Big East Quarters leaves them around the four or five vicinity.

13. Stephen F. Austin: 22-4, 57, 259, Southland auto guess

Picked as auto guess due to No. 1 seed in tournament and high RPI (Sam Houston St also in top 90).
Won only top 50 game over Oklahoma in Norman. Also beat San Diego and Sam Houston St. (split).

6. Washington St: 24-7, 20, 47, Pac-10 No. 3

Good: 12 top 100 wins, non-conf over Baylor and Gonzaga, both on the road. In conference wins over USC twice and Oregon twice. Third best team in Pac-10 means auto credibility.

Bad: No top 25 wins, not great non-conference besides Baylor-Zags trip.

Why seed: 24 wins, third best team in Pac 10, lots of solid wins, but none were great. Could move up or down a slot in tourney. Making the semi-finals keeps them at a six at worst and maybe a five.

11. Baylor: 20-10, 42, 39, Big 12 No. 6

Good: Decent non-conference with wins over Notre Dame and close losses against Washington St and Arkansas. Conference wins over Texas Tech, Kansas St, and 5 OT thriller over Texas A&M. 8 of 9 losses to top 50 teams, 17-2 against below top 50.

Bad: Only 7-9 against top 100 teams, not many real good wins away from home outside of Notre Dame game, which was neutral. Only finished 4-6.

Why seed: Pretty safely in with 20 wins, a high RPI and an above .500 mark in a solid conference. The loss to Colorado in Big 12 quarters does cause some concern, however.

3. Xavier: 27-5, 8, 19, A-10 auto guess

Good: Dominant non-conference performance beating Kent State, Indiana, Creighton, Kansas St, and Belmont. 14-2 in underrated A-10 conference, did beat Dayton twice, UMass, and St Joe's (split). 12 wins over top 100 teams.

Bad: Relatively under the radar, outside of two game run in neutral site, zero top 30 wins.

Why seed: Lots of good wins, but A-10 will be disrespected a little bit, and they did lose five times anyway.

14. UC-Santa Barbara: 22-7, 79, 204, Big West auto guess

In as one of top seeds in Big West (three way cluster with Cal St Fullerton and Cal St Northridge). All would be 14-15 seeds. UCSB has the highest RPI of four and did beat UNLV.

7. Miami-FL: 21-9, 26, 32, ACC No. 4

Good: Nine wins vs top 100 teams, non- conference wins over VCU and Mississippi St, ACC wins over Clemson (split), Virginia Tech, and Duke (split).

Bad: Only 8-8 in conference play, bad losses to Winthrop and Boston College. Pretty cream puff non-conference in general (135 SOS).

Why seed: 21 wins, .500 in ACC, and solid non-conference wins with few bad losses. High RPI as well. Seed could vary greatly, anywhere from six (if they make an ACC tourney run) to about nine with quarterfinal matchup loss to Va. Tech on Friday.

10. Illinois St: 23-9, 33, 72, MVC No. 2

Good: 5-5 against top 100 teams, beat Wright St and Cincinnati in non-conference, beat Creighton twice and Southern Illinois twice in MVC play. 13-5 pretty solid second place finish and also went to MVC Tourney finals.

Bad: Bad losses to Indiana St. and E. Michigan, not much in terms of competition in non-conference. Best win was RPI No. 51 Creighton.

Why seed: Enough decent wins to get in, high enough RPI, good conference record in solid conference, but Drake destroying them last Sunday didn't make them look great. Should be fine.

2. Georgetown: 26-4, 7, 44, Big East auto guess

Good: Five top 50 wins, beat UConn, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Marquette, Syracuse (split) and Louisville (split). Only 4 losses. 15-3 in Big East.

Bad: Only nine wins against top 100, which isn't many for a two seed, very easy non-conference schedule (130 SOS), only tough game was a loss by 14 to Memphis.

Why seed: Big East championship gives them a boost, but may be a three if they don't make it relatively far into the Big East tournament.

15. Austin Peay: 24-10, 85, 196, OVC champion

Won conference championship last Saturday to get in, RPI puts them as a 14-15 seed, both top 100 wins over Belmont. Competitive in games against Vanderbilt, Memphis, and Utah St.

West

1. UCLA: 28-3, 6, 27, Pac-10 auto guess

Good: 16-2 in Pac-10 play, 18-2 against top 100 teams, beat Maryland, Michigan St, and Davidson in non-conference play. Beat Stanford twice, Oregon twice, Washington St twice, Arizona twice, and USC (split).

Bad: Bad loss to Washington, struggled mightily to win last two games, not much else.

Why seed: Won the Pac-10, 28 wins, only three losses for a major conference program gets them the one seed ahead of Kansas and Texas right now. Not guaranteed a one seed though. Pretty safe as of right now.

16. Winthrop: 20-11, 108, 174, Big South champion

In thanks to defeating UNC-Asheville (and human giant Kenny George) last Saturday, a lower seed than last year's 13-seed because they only went 10-4 in conference. Also lost to High Point and Coastal Carolina, both bad losses. Did beat Miami and Georgia Tech, though.

8. UNLV: 23-7, 29, 78, MWC No. 2

Good: 8-6 vs top 100, did beat Nevada and San Diego in non-conference. 12-4 in solid MWC  anddid beat BYU (split), San Diego St twice, and New Mexico (split).

Bad: Bad losses to Air Force and Utah, blown out by only top 20 opponent in Louisville at home.

Why seed: Probably could move down, lots of doubters, but Sweet 16 effort last year helps some, with most of the same group. Should be in 7-10 range.

9. Mississippi St: 21-9, 38, 53, SEC No. 3

Good: 12-4 in SEC play which has always got you in, won seven of last nine, beat Kentucky, Arkansas, and Mississippi (split).

Bad: Rest of non-conference cupcakes. Only 4-9 against top 100, not real good, lost every tough non-conference game, didn't win any that would be considered good.

Why seed: Very good in conference play, and played some tough opponents in non-conf, though didn't win any of them.

5. Michigan St: 24-7, 14, 50, Big Ten No. 3

Good: 6-5 vs top 100 teams, five wins vs top 50, non-conference wins over BYU and Texas. Conference wins over Purdue (split), Indiana (split), and Ohio State (split). Played UCLA to the wire.

Bad: 12-6 in conference good, but not great, similar statement about non-conference schedule. Bad losses to Iowa and Penn St. Only six top 100 wins.

Why seed: Because they're Michigan State, a 12-win team in Big Ten, and showed well in competitive non-conference games against BYU, UCLA and Texas. Probably won't move much.

12. Western Kentucky: 25-6, 40, 152, Sun Belt champion

Bubble team if they didn't win conference tourney Tuesday night; I would have them out. Seeded 12 because if in probably would be there. Only top 100 win home game against Nebraska in overtime. Now in officially. Two Sun Belt teams in tourney odd, but likely.

4. Marquette: 23-8, 19, 24, Big East No. 5

Good: Beat Wisconsin, IUPUI, and blew out Okla. State in non conference, all losses to top 50 teams. Beat Notre Dame, Pitt, and Villanova in conference.

Bad: Lost two of last three, not great non-conference schedule (157 SOS NC), four losses by 14 or more.

Why seed: Solid Big East team, only 11-7 in conference, not great. Good record in dominant conference though. Moving up with two very good wins in tourney already including against Notre Dame, probably be in 4-5 range, depending on how they play Friday and possibly Saturday.

13. Oral Roberts: 23-8, 53, 155, Summit champion

Had been estimated in, and was made official Tuesday night after beating No. 2 seed IUPUI. Top 65 RPI gets them pretty high seed for one-bid conferences, top wins over Oklahoma State and IUPUI (two of three).

6. Clemson: 21-8, 22, 33, ACC No. 3

Good: 10 top-100 wins, didn't fade like years past, 10-6 in ACC always viewed as impressive. Beat Mississippi St and Purdue in non-conference. Also beat Miami and took UNC to OT in both games they played.

Bad: No top 25 wins, hasn't looked great in ACC, and played pretty cupcake non-conference outside of two mentioned above.

Why seed: Lot of good wins, high RPI, and being the third best team in the perceived greatness of the ACC gets them up here. Can move a slot up or down in tourney, but not much.

11. Arizona: 18-14, 39, 2, Pac-10 No. 5

Good: No. 2 schedule in country, 10 top-100 wins, non-conference wins over Texas A&M, UNLV, Houston, and CS-Fullerton, took Kansas to OT. Conference wins over Washington St (twice) and USC.

Bad: 8-10 conference record, lost 6 of last 8, not very good record in general.

Why seed: In because of ridiculous schedule, and lots of good wins. 12 of 14 losses against top 76 teams. Barely in though, especially after losing to Stanford in Pac-10 quarters, should send thank you card to about nine bubble teams that lost Thursday.

3. Wisconsin: 26-4, 12, 59, Big Ten auto guess

Good: Every loss was against a good team, all top 40 teams. Big non-conference win over Texas at Texas, dominant in Big Ten, beating Indiana twice, Ohio St twice, and Michigan State. Five top 50 wins.

Bad: Couldn't beat Purdue, 1-2 in non-conference games against teams in top 90, pretty easy schedule pre-Big Ten. Big Ten not real good this year anyway.

Why seed: Rewarded for winning Big Ten regular season outright, the lack of bad losses will be appreciated. Could move up a slot with solid tourney run, I don't think they'll drop.

14. San Diego: 20-13, 91, 97, WAC champion

In by shocking the WCC world and beating St. Mary's and Gonzaga on back-to-back nights. Won't have luxury of playing in San Diego in the NCAAs like they did in WCC tournament. Also beat Kentucky this year.

7. West Virginia: 23-9, 27, 48, Big East No. 7

Good: Three top 50 wins, 11-7 Big East record, top non-conference wins are UMBC and Winthrop, did lose to Tennessee by two and Oklahoma in double OT. Beat Marquette, Pitt, and Syracuse in conference.

Bad: Bad loss to Cincinnati, not many pleasing wins. Non-conference schedule smells of cupcakes.

Why seed: 11 win Big East team, probably the seventh best team. Did go 5-8 against top 100 which isn't bad. "Horrible schedule" still is 48th, which is in the top sixth of nation. Moving up with surprising great run in Big East tournament including beating of UConn Thursday, kind of like Syracuse's run two years ago.

10. South Alabama: 24-6, 34, 125

Good: Three top 50 wins great for Sun Belt team, also beat Mississippi St. and took Vanderbilt to double OT in Vandyland. Beat W. Kentucky, the only real tough competition outside of Mid. Tenn. St. who shocked them in the tourney, twice.

Bad: Couldn't win conference tourney, MTSU not viewed as real good team, two losses to them though, loss to North Texas not real good either.

Why seed: Great record and examples of ability to compete against top opponents sneaks them in, though they will be feeling bubble pressure.

2. Texas: 25-5, 5, 6, Big 12 auto guess

Good: Co-Big 12 champs, 10-3 against top 50, 15 top 100 wins, ridiculous non-conference wins (though not quite as many as Memphis) with wins over Tennessee (by 19 in NJ), @ UCLA, St Mary's, and Oral Roberts. 13-3 in conference includes win over Kansas, over Oklahoma twice, Baylor twice, Kansas State, and Texas A&M (split).

Bad: Their five losses are more than any other team in the top eight, and bad loss to Missouri. Two double digit losses not great either. Struggled to win games recently.

Why seed: Many big wins, but too many losses to be a No. 1. Could still move up to a No. 1 with Big 12 tourney win, probably safely No. 2. Might like it more there if go to Houston for regionals in South region.

15. Md.-Baltimore County: 22-8, 89, 268, America East auto guess

In as No. 1 seed and highest RPI in conference. Currently in the finals, this spot will belong either them or Hartford. Best win was against American this year.

Made it through? Congratulations.