Projecting the Field of 65: March 13

On the first day of the major conference tournaments, some "Wallflowers" (teams not quite ready to take part in the Big Dance) came very close to punching their tickets by winning first round games, while others decided to give up their search for a dance partner and will be heading home. Now as we head toward the quarterfinals, which teams have more work do and which can withstand another loss?

Big East

Dancing with a Hottie: Georgetown (2 seed), Louisville (3 seed), Notre Dame (4 seed), UConn (4 seed), Marquette (7 seed), West Virginia (9 seed), Pittsburgh (9 seed)

Wallflowers: Villanova (2nd out)

Syracuse has been removed from consideration after getting blown out in the second half against Villanova yesterday. The Wildcats aren't in the field yet, though, thanks to what happened in the WCC and Sun Belt. They may need to beat Georgetown today in the Big East quarters.

West Virginia and Pitt are locks following their wins in the first round of the BET.

Atlantic 10

Dancing with a Hottie: Xavier (3 seed)

Wallflowers: UMass (10 seed), Dayton (11 seed), Saint Joseph's (3rd out), Temple (4th out)

Rhode Island has been removed from consideration after its seventh loss in eight games came against Charlotte in the first round of the A-10 Tourney.

A win over Charlotte in the quarters will make UMass a lock, a loss will leave them watching a lot of other games in the A-10 Tournament.

I don't care that Dayton went 8-8 in a mid-major conference. They've won four straight, including an enormous game versus St. Joe's this weekend, and hold victories at Louisville and home against Pitt.

They're in now and should remain in following their win over St. Louis in the 8/9 game yesterday. I don't think they need to beat Xavier in Round Two, but it certainly can't hurt.

St. Joseph's took its first step back into the tournament on Wednesday when it blew out Fordham in the first round. The Hawks need to get to the semis though because a loss to Richmond would be too damaging to their resume.

Temple's the two seed in this tournament, but a 110 non-conference RPI leaves the Owls with some work to do. A win over La Salle in the quarters won't do a lot for them, but a berth in the finals should send Temple dancing.

Other Mid Major Candidates

Dancing with a Hottie: Memphis (1 seed), Drake (5 seed), Butler (6 seed), Gonzaga (7 seed), St. Mary's (7 seed)

Dancing with a Butterface: BYU (6 seed), UNLV (8 seed), Kent State (8 seed), Davidson (9 seed), South Alabama (12 seed)

Wallflowers: Illinois State (5th out), Southern Illinois (6th out), UAB (7th out), Houston (8th out), VCU (9th out), New Mexico (10th out), Creighton (13th out)

Davidson won its conference tourney so it's locked up. Western Kentucky moves from bubble to automatic bid winning the Sun Belt.

South Alabama is in for now with the final at-large spot, mostly thanks to its win early this season over Mississippi State, but if teams like Arizona, Villanova and Saint Joseph's continue to win conference tournament games, the Jaguars may find themselves on the outside looking in.

Illinois State will be the most controversial team come Selection Sunday. ISU finished second in the MVC and lost in the tournament final but they are 0-5 versus the top 50 and that will keep them out of the Dance unless a bunch of teams fall this week. Remember, they have beaten NO ONE who will be in the NCAA Tournament.

I know BYU will most definitely be in the tournament thanks to their regular season MWC crown. But if they lose to Colorado State (267 RPI) in the quarterfinals today, will their resume be worthy?

The Cougars beat an injured Louisville team in Vegas back in November, but their only top-50 win since then was at home over UNLV.

The Rebels, meanwhile, might have to beat TCU and New Mexico to get a berth in the NCAAs because the conference tourney is on their home floor. I think UNM has to get to the finals to have a shot also, so that 2/3 semi-final game could be an eliminator.

I don't agree with the people who think Kent State is a lock. St. Mary's is the only team they've beaten that's going to the Big Dance. Meanwhile, Kent has lost to terrible teams like Toledo and Bowling Green.

If they lose to another sub-100 team in the first round, do they deserve to get in? I don't think so.

UAB has no shot at an at-large. They have one top-50 win versus No. 48 Kentucky and five losses to teams with a triple digit RPI. They don't deserve an at-large unless they beat Memphis, and since they can't do that until the C-USA final, the Blazers are not getting an at-large. The same goes for Houston.

ACC

Dancing with a Hottie: North Carolina (1 seed), Duke (2 seed), Clemson (6 seed)

Wallflowers: Miami (9 seed), Virginia Tech (14th out), Maryland (15th out)

I don't understand how anyone can have Va Tech in their field right now. The Hokies are 18-12 with an RPI of 58 and an 0-6 record vs. the top 50. Writers want to put them in because they were 9-7 in the ACC, but if you take a closer look at who they beat, you will find that they didn't win a single game against the best teams in the conference (UNC, Duke, Clemson, Miami).

In fact, VT hasn't beaten anyone heading to the Tournament. The Hokies have to hope that Miami holds serve against NC State in the first round so they can play, and hopefully beat, the 'Canes (No. 28 RPI) in the ACC quarters. I don't think 1-6 vs. the top 50 will be enough, but a victory over top ranked UNC in the semis should do the trick for Virginia Tech.

As for Miami, they need to beat bottom-dweller NC State to punch their ticket. The Hurricanes have three top-50 wins, so a second round loss to VT should be okay.

Maryland (1-5 vs. top 50) MUST now beat BC and Clemson to have any chance. A win over Duke in the semis should get them to the Dance.

Pac-10

Dancing with a Hottie: UCLA (1 seed), Stanford (3 seed), Washington State (4 seed), USC (7 seed)

Wallflowers: Oregon (10 seed), Arizona State (11 seed), Arizona (1st out)

Oregon and Arizona State each improved their seeding with South Alabama's loss in the Sun Belt semis. Arizona, meanwhile, was pushed out as the Jaguars and Gonzaga became at-large teams. All three of these Pac-10 schools still have some work to do if they want to find themselves in the Dance on Sunday.

A win over WSU in the Pac-10 quarters should lock things up for Oregon. A loss wouldn't eliminate them due to the strength of their four top-50 wins, but it would leave the Ducks in very bad shape depending on what else happens during Championship Week.

Since 1999, the lowest RPI to earn an at large was No. 70 Air Force in 2004.

That means No. 74 Arizona State better start winning some games, no matter what people say about their five top-50 wins (six teams missed the tournament with five top-50 wins last year).

It's about as do-or-die as it gets when the Sun Devils play USC today. Win and they're in; lose and they're out.

Arizona's RPI continues to drop (currently at 34), and that will continue when the Wildcats take on 6-23 Oregon State in the first round. They have to beat Stanford in the quarterfinals or else I see the Wildcats heading to the NIT.

Big 12

Dancing with a Hottie: Texas (2 seed), Kansas (2 seed), Oklahoma (6 seed)

Dancing with a Butterface: Kansas State (8 seed)

Wallflowers: Texas A&M (11 seed), Baylor (12 seed), Oklahoma St (11th out), Texas Tech (12th out)

A&M and Baylor were helped by South Alabama's loss, OSU and Texas Tech were not.

I can't see Oklahoma (25 RPI, 11 SOS, 6-7 vs. top 50) being left out even if they lose their first conference tournament game.

Kansas State may be ahead of OU in the Big 12 standings, but I put them a level below because of their 45 RPI, 24 SOS, and 3-5 record vs. the top 50.

This may be strange, but I think a Texas A&M win over Iowa State in the first round puts K-State in because the Wildcats' RPI can sustain a loss to the Aggies, but it may not be able to hold up in the eyes of the committee with a defeat at the hands of the Cyclones.

I believe A&M and Baylor have done enough this year to make the tourney with just one win this week. But a loss in the first round, and I'd leave them out.

Oklahoma State and Texas Tech need to make the finals to have any shot.

SEC

Dancing with a Hottie: Tennessee (1 seed), Vanderbilt (5 seed), Mississippi State (8 seed)

Dancing with a Butterface: Kentucky (10 seed)

Wallflowers: Arkansas (10 seed), Mississippi (11 seed), Florida (16th out)

Everyone is considering Kentucky a lock at this point, but if they lose to Ole Miss or Georgia in the SEC quarters, the Wildcats could be forgotten about come Sunday.

A lot of teams behind them would have to keep winning for that to happen, but let's not forget this is a team that lost to Gardner Webb and San Diego and their RPI stands at 48 with a non-conference mark of 207.

That being said, a berth in the semis would have the Cats dancing.

Arkansas picked up a first round bye, but, much like Kentucky, they're going to want to get in the semi-finals before they feel safe.

I think another win for Ole Miss over Georgia today should put them in the field of 65.

Now wait, how come Kentucky and Arkansas need to get to the semis but Mississippi only needs to get to the quarters?

The Rebels are one of only 18 teams in the country with at least five wins vs. the top 50 and a winning record vs. the top 50.

And no, Arizona State and Arizona do not fall into that category.

The Gators are now 8-8 in the SEC, have a dismal RPI of 65, and hold just three wins versus the top 100. It's finals or bust for the champs.

Big Ten

Dancing with a Hottie: Wisconsin (3 seed), Purdue (4 seed), Indiana (5 seed), Michigan State (5 seed)

Wallflowers: Ohio State (12 seed)

The Buckeyes beat two top-25 teams (Purdue and Michigan State) in the past couple weeks to get themselves back in the field for the first time since January, but they'll have to beat Sparty again in the 4/5 game to solidify a spot in the tournament. A loss should leave them out.