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London 2012: Handicapping Gabrielle Douglas' Odds at Olympic Gold

Chris StephensJul 30, 2012

Gabrielle Douglas has made it known that she is one of the best gymnasts in the world.

Heading into the individual all-around final, Douglas is ranked third behind Russia's Viktoria Komova and her U.S. teammate Aly Raisman.

The difference between first and third was 0.367 points.

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So, what are Douglas' chances to take home gold?

The pressure is definitely there since the U.S. has taken home the last two individual all-around gold medals.

In qualifications, Douglas scored a 15.900 on vault, 15.333 on uneven bars, 15.266 on balance beam and 13.766 on floor exercise. So, we see where her struggles were.

Komova, on the other hand, scored a 15.633 on vault, 15.833 on uneven bars, 15.266 on balance beam and 13.900 on floor exercise.

Raisman scored a 15.800 on vault, 14.166 on uneven bars, 15.100 on balance beam and 15.325 on floor exercise.

Each gymnast had an event they struggled on. Douglas and Komova struggled on the floor exercise, while Raisman struggled on the uneven bars.

For Douglas and Komova, however, their struggles on the floor were a fluke and I believe both will clean their routines up prior to the individual all-around.

So, that leaves Douglas and Komova to battle it out for the gold.

While the beam seems to be the only place where they are even on, the uneven bars could be what makes or breaks Douglas' hope for individual gold.

Known as the "Flying Squirrel," Douglas has had good routines on the bars, but is going to have to be just a little cleaner through the routine to get a few extra tenths. Her floor routine should improve by at least a point, so that should help there.

Where Komova has the advantage over Douglas is in experience. But, as we've seen, experience means nothing once you're in the middle of the competition.

What it's going to come down to is which gymnast makes the fewest mistakes and trusts their training.

And, the way things are going right now, I think Komova has to be the favorite.

Regardless, I feel Komova and Douglas will both be on the medal podium.

Individual All-Around Gold Medal Odds:

Viktoria Komova—38 percent

Gabrielle Douglas—29 percent

Aly Raisman—18 percent

Aliya Mustafina—12 percent

Others—3 percent

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