The Quest to Beat Joe Lunardi: Pickin' the NCAA Tournament Bracket

So, having heard all the guys at ESPN talk about the greatness of Joe Lunardi, I wanted to see, putting up 10 days of hard work into it (starting last Friday, March 7), to see if I could be close, or even better.

So what I'm going to do is list the 65 teams in an outline for a basic list, then go in ridiculous detail underneath in match-up form to explain why.

Hopefully, it'll be informative, if not put people to sleep. I also will try to update each day, though the info for the teams won't change much day-to-day unless moved or played.

My basic info of use is RPI, Strength of schedule, and record vs RPI top 100, as well as generic record/conference type/conference record setup. Since I didn't feel like spending money on ESPN's InsideRPI, I used the daily RPI from Ken Pomeroy's website.

Going by seed in East, Midwest, South, West order (official conference champs in bold, estimated champs in all CAPS).

Through games of March 11...

1. NORTH CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, MEMPHIS, UCLA (in caps)

2. Kansas, Duke, TEXAS, GEORGETOWN

3. Louisville, Vanderbilt, UConn, WISCONSIN

4. Indiana, Stanford, XAVIER, Drake

5. Notre Dame, Marquette, Butler, Mich St

6. BYU (in caps), Purdue, Clemson, Wash St

7. Gonzaga, Pitt, UNLV(not caps), Miami-FL

8. Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas St

9. USC (no caps), St Mary's, Arkansas, Mississippi St

10. UMass, KENT ST, Illinois St, Texas A&M

11. Ohio St, Arizona, South Alabama, Kentucky

12. Davidson, W Kentucky, Villanova, New Mexico

13. NEVADA, George Mason, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, Oral Roberts

14. Cornell, Siena, UCSB (in caps), San Diego

15. AMERICAN, Belmont, Austin Peay, UMBC (in caps)

16. (Play-in) ALABAMA ST/SACRED HEART, MORGAN ST, PORTLAND

ST, Winthrop

Just out: Virginia Tech, Ole Miss, Syracuse, Dayton, UAB, Oregon, Florida, VCU, Maryland, Arizona St., St. Joe's, Houston

Breakdowns

East

1. North Carolina: 29-2, RPI 2, SOS 4, ACC #1
Good: 9-1 vs RPI top 50, 19 wins vs top 100, most in nation, more good wins than given credit for, especially over mid-seeds like Davidson, BYU, Ohio St, Kentucky, Nevada, and Kent St., not to mention conference wins over Duke(split), Clemson (twice) and Miami.
Bad: Loss to Maryland, only top 20 win this year was last week against Duke. Lots of good wins, few great wins.
Why at seed: too many good wins, RPI 2, ACC regular season champ

16a. Alabama St: 16-9, 193, 338, SWAC est. champ

Not going to say much on them, except estimated to be champ in the worst conference in Division 1.

16b. Sacred Heart: 18-13, 158, 225, NEC est. champ

Playing Mount St. Mary's in NEC finals, both teams shocked top-two teams in conference (Robert Morris and Wagner), winner of that game gets in play-in game.

8. Oklahoma: 21-10, 25, 10, Big 12 #3
Good: Great turnaround from struggling last year. Jeff Capel's done great job, and Blake Griffin's been huge. Good conference run at 9-7, wins over Baylor twice and Texas A&M. Beat West Virginia, Gonzaga, and Arkansas as well.
Bad: Three conference losses, though all to current NCAA teams (Memphis, USC, and SFA), but bad conference losses at Colorado and Nebraska.
Why seed: Mix of good and bad wins, but probably third-best team in five or six bid conference puts them there. 10 top-100 wins always should get in.

9. USC: 20-10, 31, 14, Pac-10 #4
Good: Won Five of last six, including dominant win over Stanford. Also solid wins over Oklahoma, Arizona, and UCLA. Also went down to the wire against Kansas and Memphis.
Bad: Couple bad losses, against Cal and a completely horrible one against No. 313 Mercer.
Why seed: Got themselves safely in with two big wins this week. 11 top-100 wins always appreciated. Could still move up.

5. Notre Dame: 24-6, 19, 79, Big East #4
Good: Only one of six losses against team not in NCAAs (Ga Tech), dominant home team, beat Kansas St., Villanova, Syracuse, Pitt, Marquette, UConn, and West Virginia.
Bad: Not as good on road, only 7-6 in road/neutral games.
Why seed: Lots of good wins, Big East has been getting bumps up by the committee, so about right for them, not real good away from home may hurt them in tourney.

12. Davidson: 25-6, 40, 132, Southern Champion
Good: Played tough opponents close, UNC loss by 4, Duke loss by 6, and UCLA by 12. Won 22 straight.
Bad: No wins over top 100 teams, would have kept them out of the tourney in my view.
Seeded here because bubble team if hadn't won conference, would have been here if in anyway.

4. Indiana: 25-6, 17, 58, Big Ten #2
Good: Five of six losses all against top 15 teams, big wins over Purdue, Michigan St. in conference, Illinois St and Kentucky non-conference.
Bad: Loss to Penn St. last week was awful. Kelvin Sampson issue always a problem. Besides that, not too much.
Why seed: 10 top-100 wins always good, seemed to do OK post-Kelvin Sampson to maintain high seed.

13. Nevada: 19-10, 77, 136, WAC auto guess

Only chance of getting in will be winning the WAC. New Mexico St. and Utah State would probably be here as well if win, and Boise St would probably be a 14. All four of those teams finished 12-4 in conference play.

6. BYU: 25-6, 22, 99, MWC est champ (#1)
Good: Dominant home team as well, class of MWC, great non-conference run. Beat Louisville in Vegas, and played both UNC and Michigan St. to the wire. Also, beat New Mexico twice and split with UNLV in conference.
Bad: Really not too many great wins, 5-6 against top 100 teams, could drop in seed.
Why seed: Lots of wins, solid conference, and matched up well in non-conference tourney in Vegas. If go anywhere this week, it would be down.

11. Ohio St: 19-12, 48, 21, Big Ten #5
Good: Big finish, beat Michigan St and Purdue, beat Syracuse and Florida in non-conference.

Bad: Not in comfortably, need to make Big Ten semis to get comfortable. Very much on bubble.
Why seed: Barely in, but seven top 100 wins and tough schedule, so might help. Committee also seems to love Big Ten anyway. Still could be out if lose to Mich St. in Big Ten quarters.

3. Louisville: 24-7, 11, 6, Big East #2
Good: 14-4 against the Big East always applauded. Road win at UNLV, Also beat Kentucky and had solid non-conference run. Conference wins include Marquette twice, Georgetown (split), Pitt, Notre Dame, and Villanova. Won nine of last 10.
Bad: Lost 3 non-conference games (BYU, Dayton, Purdue) though all good teams, two (relatively) bad Big East losses to Cincinnati and Seton Hall.
Why seed: Hot team besides three point loss at G'Town this past weekend, can push for No. 2 if win tournament. Can drop with another loss, but probably safe at No. 3.

14. Cornell: 21-5, 67, 261, Ivy champion

In automatically as Ivy league champ, top 70 RPI gets them a bit higher than typical for Ivy teams. Only top 100 win was over MAAC champ Siena.

7. Gonzaga: 25-7, 30, 95, WCC #2
Good: solid non-conference schedule, wins over Western Kentucky, Virginia Tech, UConn, and was the regular season champ in the WCC, advancing to the finals.
Bad: Couldn't seal deal, lots of non-conference losses, though most good, also included Texas Tech.
Why seed: 7-7 against top 100, lots of high quality games for WCC team, but couldn't finish off WCC champ, so probably stuck around here.

10. Massachusetts: 21-9, 41, 66, A-10 #2
Good: Won six in a row, beat Syracuse and Houston non-conference, and beat Dayton and Rhode Island twice in the A-10. 6-6 vs top 100.
Bad: Three bad losses to Northern Iowa, St Louis, and Fordham (home). Lost most of their tougher non-conference games, including IUPUI and Vanderbilt.
Why seed: In by a little now, A-10 very good conference, should get some credit, but mid-major upsets and poor conference performance could hurt them, even on the bubble. Scheduled fairly tough non-conference.

2. Kansas: 27-3, 8, 63, Big 12 #2
Good: Lots of big wins, no losses outside of the top 100, all of those also true road games. Beat Arizona and USC non-conference. Also beat Oklahoma,Baylor, Texas A&M and Kansas St (split) in Big 12 play.
Bad: Not anything huge, but road loss to Oklahoma State keeping them down a little right now, also "only" 15 games against top 100 teams, little less than those above them.
Why seed: Lots of big wins, but not real tough non-conference schedule keeps them from No. 1 seed jump, can still get there if win Big 12 tournament.

15. American: 20-11, 92, 161, Patriot auto guess

Predicted in NCAAs as Patriot champ due to 10-4 conference record and highest RPI in conference, in the championship game as of now. Beat Maryland at Maryland in December.

Midwest

1. Tennessee: 27-3, 1, 1, SEC #1
Good: Lots of it. RPI 1, SOS 1, NCAA high 11 wins against top 50 teams, 14-2 against dominant conference, only team to beat Memphis, beat West Virginia, Xavier, Gonzaga, Ohio State, and Memphis non-conference.
Bad: Only loss that wasn't down to the wire in a true road game was 19-point thrashing to Texas in New Jersey, something none of the other top seven teams really experienced, a dominant loss. SEC down a little this year doesn't help their resume.
Why seed: Pushing for No. 1 overall, tournament win may get them there, not automatically in at No. 1 if lose in SEC quarters, but should be safe here.

16. Morgan St: 19-9, 126, 285, MEAC auto guess

Here because estimated as MEAC champ with 14-2 conference record, top RPI, and No. 1 tournament seed. Still a ways to go. Probably second or third worst conference in Division I. Best win: American.

8. Baylor: 20-9, 34, 32, Big 12 #5
Good: Decent non-conference, with wins over Notre Dame and wire-to-wire games against Washington St. and Arkansas. Conference wins over Texas Tech, Kansas St., and five-OT thriller over Texas A&M. eight of nine losses to top 50 teams, 17-1 against below top 50.
Bad: Only 4-9 against top 100 teams, not many real good wins away from home outside of Notre Dame game, which was neutral. Only finished 4-5.
Why seed: Pretty good in, 20 wins and high RPI and above .500 mark in solid conference gets them pretty in, may be a little worrisome if drop to Colorado in Big 12 quarters.

9. St Mary's: 24-6, 37, 137, WCC #2
Good: Great non-conference run for mid-major team, beating Drake, Oregon, Seton Hal, and Ohio. All losses to top 90 teams. Split with Gonzaga.
Bad: Lost twice to San Diego, blown out in toughest game to Texas, only two wins over top 50 teams.
Why seed: Dropped a little after not making WCC Finals at least. Safe in with two top 30 wins, and 7-6 record against top 100.

5. Marquette: 21-8, 23, 36, Big East #5
Good: Beat Wisconsin, IUPUI, and blew out Oklahoma State in non conference, all losses to top 50 teams. Beat Notre Dame, Pitt, and Villanova in conference.
Bad: Lost two of last three, not great non-conference schedule (157 SOS NC), four losses by 14 or more.
Why seed: Solid Big East team, only 11-7 in conference, not great. Good record in dominant conference though.

12. Western Kentucky: 25-6, 43, 144, Sun Belt champion

Bubble team if didn't win conference tourney Tuesday night, I would have them out. Seeded No. 12 because if in probably would be there. Only top 100 win home game against Nebraska in overtime. Now in officially. Two Sun Belt teams in tourney odd, but likely.

4. Stanford: 24-6, 18, 78, Pac-10 #2
Good: 14-4 in Pac 10, Non-conference win over Texas Tech in Dallas, conference wins over USC, Arizona twice, Washington St. twice, and Oregon. two of four conference losses in OT.
Bad: Absolute cupcake non-conf schedule, only three top 150 teams in schedule, and lost to Siena. Lost last two games of the season.
Why seed: 11 top-100 wins, great conference record in one of top conferences in nation keep them high. Struggles continue in Pac-10 tourney, may drop a seed more, also can move up with strong run.

13. George Mason: 23-10, 62, 126, CAA champion

In as conference champions, but were relatively close to bubble, so should have a seed around 12-14. Nice to see them back. Beat Dayton, Kansas State, Cleveland St., and VCU this year.

6. Purdue: 24-7, 36, 110, Big Ten #4
Good: Great conference run, 15 wins, beat Louisville non-conference, beat Wisconsin twice, Ohio St., and Michigan St.
Bad: Three bad non-conf losses, including to Wofford and Iowa State.
Why seed: Hot team, but poor non-conference schedule will cost them a little on the seeding part, probably won't go below six seed.

11. Arizona: 17-13, 29, 2, Pac-10 #5
Good: No. 2 schedule in country, 10 top-100 wins, non-conference wins over Texas A&M, UNLV, Houston, and CS-Fullerton, took Kansas to OT. Conference wins over Washington St (twice) and USC.
Bad: 8-10 conference record, lost six of last eight, not very good record in general.

Why seed: In because of ridiculous schedule, and lots of good wins. 11 of 13 losses against top 76 teams. Barely in though, may need help and/or win conference tourney game or two.

3. Vanderbilt: 25-6, 10, 35, SEC #2
Good: 11-top 100 wins, non-conference over Austin Peay, Utah State, S. Alabama and UMass. Conference wins over Kentucky, Miss St., and Tennessee.
Bad: All wins listed in good section home or neutral. Only 10-6 in conference play, fourth best. Lost two of last three.
Why seed: Could drop if early loss in SEC tournament. Probably won't move up. Placed here because top 10 RPI hard to ignore.

14. Siena: 22-10, 72, 121, MAAC champion

In by winning MAAC championship over Rider. 14 seed due to decent RPI, and two impressive wins, over Stanford and Boise St. in non-conference. Could be an upset pick.

7. Pittsburgh: 21-9, 24, 38, Big East #6
Good: Beat Duke in New York, and Oklahoma St in non-conference. Beat Georgetown, Syracuse, West Virginia, and Villanova in Big East play.
Bad: 10-8 in Big East decent, not great, lost four of last seven. Bad losses to Cincinnati and Rutgers don't help.
Why seed: Drops a little due to mid-season loss of Ramon, hasn't played quite as well after losing him for the season. In safely though, and 7-7 vs top 100 solid.

10. Kent St: 25-6, 26, 117, MAC auto guess
Good: Nine top 100 wins, a ton for a mid-major. Non-conference wins over Illinois St., George Mason, Cleveland St., and St. Mary's. Will be in even if don't win automatic bid.
Bad: Bad losses to Detroit, Bowling Green and Toledo. Seven of nine wins over top 100 against 51-100, and no top 30 wins (did lose to Xavier and UNC).
Why seed: A little lower than some think, typically based off of history of committee underseeding mid-majors, kind of a prove it idea.

2. Duke: 26-4, 4, 9, ACC #2
Good: Play like Duke. 15 top-100 wins. Non-conference wins over Marquette, Wisconsin, Davidson, Cornell, and Temple. Also beat Miami (split), UNC(split), and Clemson.
Bad: Bad loss to Wake Forest, also was only double digit loss of year. That's about it.
Why seed: Lots of good wins, but four losses actually a lot this year to be a No. 1 seed. I think will be a No. 1 if win ACC Tournament.

15. Belmont: 24-8, 78, 221, Atlantic Sun champion

In by winning Atlantic Sun conference, both regular season and tournament. Best wins over Cincinnati and Alabama. Did lose to No. 311 Campbell and No. 325 Kennesaw St.

(halfway there)
South

1. Memphis: 30-1, 3, 19, C-USA auto guess
Good: Eight top 50 wins, 12-1 against top 100 teams. Beat Oklahoma, UConn, USC, Georgetown, Arizona, Siena, Gonzaga in non-conference. 16-0 in conference.
Bad: Play in Conference USA.
Why seed: Could be best in nation, but mid-major type conference keeps everyone from feeling comfortable about it. Should be No. 1 even with loss in tournament if happens.

16. Portland St: 19-9, 96, 245, Big Sky auto guess

In as estimate for who'll win Big Sky. Portland State No. 1 seed and highest RPI from conference. Did lose to Eastern Washington and San Jose St, but beat IUPUI and Akron.

8. Kansas St: 19-10, 45, 27, Big 12 #4
Good: Beat Kansas. Have best player in nation in Michael Beasley. Played a solid schedule. Ten Big 12 wins means something this year (went 10-6 last yearand didn't get in), also beat Oklahoma and Texas A&M in conference.
Bad: Lost every tough non-conference game, blown out by Xavier. Also lost road games to Missouri and Nebraska. Lost four of last six.
Why seed: Solid wins, six top 100 wins good, but 6-9 against that group. Should be good, but not completely safe. Can help and/or hurt in tourney, very easily could drop.

9. Arkansas: 20-10, 42, 40, SEC #4
Good: Four top-50 wins. Beat VCU and Baylor non-conference as well as Oral Roberts. 9-7 record in SEC good enough to get in, did beat Ole Miss and Miss St as well as Vanderbilt in SEC play.
Bad: Bad losses to Appalachian St, South Carolina, and Georgia. Vanderbilt only top 30 win, lost five of last eight.
Why seed: Twenty wins and over .500 in conference usually a good sign. 7-6 vs top 100 also keeps them good. Should be safe in, could help self with SEC tourney run.

5. Butler: 29-3, 16, 136, Horizon champion
Good: Great record, 9-3 against top 100 is tremendous. Beat Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, and Ohio State in consecutive games. All three losses against top 86teams and by seven or less.
Bad: Only one top 50 win. Perhaps not many tough games could drop their seed some.
Why seed: 1-1 vs top 50 not great, though 9-3 vs top 100 is. Pretty set at 4-6 range with tourney championship.

12. Villanova: 19-11, 57, 56, Big East #8
Good: .500 in Big East play, four top 50 wins and seven top 100 wins, beat George Mason and Temple non-conference. Beat Pitt (split), Syracuse (split), UConn, and West Virginia in conference.
Bad: Bad losses to Rutgers, DePaul, and Cincinnati. Only 9-9 in conference iffy. Lost five consecutive games at one point.
Why seed: Essentially spot for eighth Big East team. Syracuse beats them Wednesday, probably will take this spot (though mid-major's that get in but lose their conference tournament means spot not guaranteed).

4. Xavier: 26-5, 9, 28,A-10 auto guess
Good: Dominant non-conference performance, beating Kent State, Indiana, Creighton, Kansas St., and Belmont. 14-2 in underrated A-10 conference, did beatDayton twice, UMass, and St. Joe's (split). 11 wins over top 100 teams.
Bad: Relatively under the radar, outside of two-game run in neutral site, zero top 30 wins.
Why seed: Lots of good wins, I think A-10 will be disrespected a little bit, and did lose five times anyway.

13. Stephen F. Austin: 21-4, 59, 258, Southland auto guess

Picked as auto guess due to No. 1 seed in tournament and high RPI (Sam Houston St also in top 80).
Won only top 50 game over Oklahoma in Norman.
Also beat San Diego and Sam Houston St (split).

6. Clemson: 21-8, 21, 37, ACC #3
Good: Ten top-100 wins, didn't fade like years past, 10-6 in ACC always viewed as impressive. Beat Mississippi St and Purdue in non-conference. Also beat Miami and took UNC to OT in both games they played.
Bad: No top 25 wins, hasn't looked great in ACC, and played pretty cupcake non-conference outside of two mentioned above.
Why seed: Lot of good wins, high RPI, and being the third best team in the perceived greatness of the ACC gets them up here. Can move a slot up or down in tourney, but not much.

11. South Alabama: 24-6, 39, 128
Good: Three top 50 wins great for Sun Belt team, also beat Mississippi St. and took Vanderbilt to double overtime in Vandyland. Beat Western Kentucky, the only real tough competition outside of Middle Tennessee St. who shocked them in the tourney, twice.
Bad: Couldn't win conference tourney, MTSU not viewed as real good team, two losses to them tough, loss to North Texas not real good either.
Why seed: Great record, examples of ability to compete against top opponents sneaks them in, though they will be feeling bubble pressure.

3. Connecticut: 24-7, 14, 26, Big East #3
Good: Seven top 50 wins, beat Indiana in non-conference. Beat Marquette, Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, Notre Dame (split), and West Virginia in Big East.
Bad: "Only" 8-7 against top 100, not great for a seed as high as three. Pretty bad losses to Providence twice. Pretty cupcake non-conference.
Why seed: 13-5 in Big East, lots of big wins in "best" conference in nation.

Everyone loves Jim Calhoun. Probably won't move up, but may move down one with poor Big East tourney showing.

14. UC-Santa Barbara: 22-7, 79, 206, Big West auto guess

In as one of top seeds in Big West (4 way cluster with them, Pacific, Cal St Fullerton and Cal St Northridge. All would be 14-15 seeds. UCSB highest RPI of four, did beat UNLV.

7. UNLV: 22-7, 28, 71, MWC #2
Good: 7-5 vs top 100, did beat Nevada and San Diego in non-conference. 12-4 in solid MWC, did beat BYU (split), San Diego St twice, and New Mexico(split).
Bad: Bad losses to Air Force and Utah, blown out in only top 20 opponent in Louisville at home.
Why seed: Probably could move down, lot of doubters, but figured sweet 16 effort last year helps some, with most of the same group. Should be in 7-10 range.

10. Illinois St: 23-9, 35, 70, MVC #2
Good: 5-5 against top 100 teams, beat Wright St and Cincinnati in non-conference, beat Creighton twice and Southern Illinois twice in MVC play.13-5 pretty solid as No. 2, went to MVC Tourney finals.
Bad: Bad losses to Indiana St. and E. Michigan, not much in terms of competition in non-conference. Best win was RPI No. 51 Creighton.
Why seed: Enough decent wins to get in, high enough RPI, good conference record in solid conference, but Drake destroying them last Sunday didn't make them look great. Should be fine.

2. Texas: 25-5, 5, 9, Big 12 auto guess
Good: Co-Big 12 champs, 10-3 against top 50, 15 top 100 wins, ridiculous non-conference wins (though not quite as much as Memphis) with wins over Tennessee (by 19 and in NJ), UCLA in L.A., St. Mary's, and Oral Roberts. 13-3 in conference includes win over Kansas, over Oklahoma twice, Baylor twice, Kansas State, and Texas A&M (split).
Bad: Five losses more than any other in top eight, bad loss to Missouri. Two double digit losses not great either. Struggled to win games recently.
Why seed: Many big wins, but too many losses to be a No. 1. Could still move up to a No. 1 with Big 12 tourney win, probably safe at No. 2. Might like it more there if go to Houston for regionals in South region.

15. Austin Peay: 24-10, 83, 198, OVC champion

Won conference championship last Saturday to get in, RPI puts them as a 14-15 seed, both top 100 wins over Belmont. Competitive in games against Vanderbilt, Memphis, and Utah St.

West

1. UCLA: 27-3, 6, 22, Pac-10 auto guess
Good: 16-2 in Pac-10 play, 17-2 against top 100 teams, beat Maryland, Michigan St., and Davidson in non-conference play. Beat Stanford twice, Oregon twice, Washington St. twice, Arizona twice, and USC (split).
Bad: Bad loss to Washington, struggled mightily to win last two games, not much else.
Why seed: Wins Pac-10, 27 wins, only three losses for major conference program gets them ahead of Kansas and Texas right now, not guaranteed a one seed though. Pretty safe as of right now.

16. Winthrop: 20-11, 109, 174, Big South champion

In by defeating UNC-Asheville (and human giant Kenny George) last Saturday, a lower seed than last year's 13 seed by going only 10-4 in conference, also lost to High Point and Coastal Carolina, both bad losses. Did beat Miami and Georgia Tech.

8. West Virginia: 21-9, 32, 55, Big East #7
Good: Three top 50 wins, 11-7 Big East record, top non-conference wins are UMBC and Winthrop, did lose to Tennessee by two and Oklahoma in double OT. Beat Marquette, Pitt, and Syracuse in conference.
Bad: Bad loss to Cincinnati, not many pleasing wins. Non-conference schedule smells of cupcakes.
Why seed: Eleven win Big East team, probably the seventh best team. Did go 6-8 against top 100 which isn't bad. "Horrible schedule" still is 55th, which is in the top 1/6th of nation. Will drop if lose early, probably won't move much though.

9. Mississippi St.: 21-9, 38, 51, SEC #3
Good: 12-4 in SEC play, never not got in before (same logic helps Kentucky as well), strong recently, won seven of last nine, beat Kentucky, Arkansas, and Mississippi(split).
Bad: Rest of non-conference cupcakes. Only 4-9 against top 100, not real good, lost every tough non-conference game, didn't win any that would be considered good.
Why seed: Very good in conference play, and played some tough opponents in non-conference, though didn't win any of them.

5. Michigan St.: 24-7, 15, 48, Big Ten #3
Good: 8-5 vs top 100 teams, five wins vs top 50, non-conf wins over BYU and Texas. Conference wins over Purdue (split), Indiana (split), and Ohio State (split). Played UCLA to the wire.
Bad: 12-6 in conference good, not great, similar statement about non-conference schedule. Bad losses to Iowa and Penn St.
Why seed: Because they're Michigan State and a 12-win team in Big Ten, and showed well in competitive non-conference games against BYU, UCLA and Texas. Probably won't move much.

12. New Mexico: 24-7, 52, 151, MWC #3
Good: Solid wins over San Diego and Texas Tech non conference, beat San Diego St. (split) and UNLV (split) in conference. 11-5 in solid MWC.
Bad: Only one top 50 win, 4-5 against top 100, bad losses to New Mexico St and TCU. Not much to debate into the tournament with.
Why seed: Probably my last in right now, needs to show well in tournament, may play UNLV in semifinals, which would be huge for them, I think getting to MWC would seal them in. Could move up to 10 or 11 if beat UNLV and BYU this week.

4. Drake: 26-4, 12, 69, MVC champion

In by way of defeating Illinois St. (soundly) in MVC final last Sunday.

Why seed: Four top 50 wins, though three were Illinois St. Did also beat Butler in Indiana. 15-3 in solid conference, lots of decent wins. Worst loss to Missouri St. Will probably still be fourth or fifth seed.

13. Oral Roberts: 23-8, 56, 157, Summit champion

Had been estimated in, and was made official Tuesday night after beating No. 2 seed IUPUI. Top 65 RPI gets them pretty high seed for one-bid conferences, top wins over Oklahoma State and IUPUI (two of three).

6. Washington St.: 23-7, 20, 46, Pac-10 #3
Good: Eleven top 100 wins, non-conference over Baylor and Gonzaga, both on the road. In conference, wins over USC twice and Oregon twice. Third-best team in Pac-10 means auto credibility.
Bad: No top 25 wins, not great non-conference besides Baylor-Zags trip.

Why seed: 23 wins, third-best team in Pac 10, lots of solid wins, but none great to move up, could move up or down a slot in tourney.

11. Kentucky: 18-11, 49, 12, SEC #5
Good: 12-4 in SEC, never has not got in with 12 SEC wins, big conference wins over Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. Six of seven non-conference losses were against top 100 teams, so not as bad as perceived.
Bad: 6-7 in non-conference, including awful loss to Gardner-Webb. Only 5-10 against top 100 teams.
Why seed: In because of SEC play, and only SEC play, so lower than three other SEC teams they had better conference records against. Not completely in yet.

3. Wisconsin: 26-4, 13, 62, Big Ten auto guess
Good: Every loss was against a good team, all top 40 teams, Big non-conference win over Texas at Texas, dominant in Big Ten, beating Indiana twice, Ohio St. twice, and Michigan State. Five top 50 wins.
Bad: Couldn't beat Purdue, 1-2 in non-conference games against teams in top 90, pretty easy schedule pre-Big Ten. Big Ten not real good this year anyway.
Why seed: Rewarded for winning Big Ten regular season outright, doesn't lose against bad teams, will be appreciated. Could move up a slot with solid tourney run, I don't think they'll drop.

14. San Diego: 20-13, 89, 97, WAC champion

In by shocking the WCC world and beating St. Mary's and Gonzaga on back-to-back nights. Won't have luxury of playing in San Diego in the NCAAs like they did in WCC tournament. Did also beat Kentucky this year.

7. Miami-FL: 20-9, 27, 31, ACC #4
Good: Nine wins vs top 100 teams, non- conference wins over VCU and Mississippi St., ACC wins over Clemson (split), Virginia Tech, and Duke (split).
Bad: Only 8-8 in conference play, bad losses to Winthrop and Boston College. Pretty cream-puff non-conference in general (135 SOS).
Why seed: Twenty wins, .500 in ACC, and solid non-conference wins and few bad losses. High RPI as well. Seed could vary greatly, anywhere from six (if make ACC tourney run) to 11.

10. Texas A&M: 21-9, 47, 57, Big 12 #6
Good: Four top 50 wins, beat Oral Roberts and Ohio St. in non-conference, Texas, Oklahoma, and Baylor.
Bad:  SOS is No. 222 in non-conf, only 8-8 in Big 12, not great, lost at home to Nebraska and OK State (both top 100, but barely). 6-5 away from home.
Why seed: In because of solid conference record in underrated conference, 7-9 vs top 100 solid for bubble team, not safely in though. Need to not look bad in tourney.

2. Georgetown: 25-4, 7, 42, Big East auto guess
Good: Six top 50 wins, beat UConn, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Marquette, Syracuse (split), and Louisville (split). Only four losses. 15-3 in Big East.
Bad: Only nine wins against top 100, which isn't many for a No. 2 seed, very easy non-conference schedule (130 SOS), only tough game lost by 14 to Memphis.
Why seed: Big East champ gives them a boost, but may be a three if don't make it relatively far into the Big East tournament.

15. Md.-Baltimore County: 22-8, 88, 269, America East auto guess

In as No. 1 seed and highest RPI in conference. Currently into finals, will either be them or would be play-in game candidate Hartford. Best win was against American this year.

Made it through? Congratulations.