Federer to Serena: Projecting Tennis Quarterfinal Winners at the Summer Games

After all the pre-Olympic hype, it is time to get started.

The opening salvos on grass were made known once the draw concluded earlier today in London. 

Now we know the opponents for all the top-ranked players participating in the 2012 Summer Games.

As expected, several upcoming matches promise intense action from the first day to the last during men’s and women’s singles action at the Summer Games.

Following are projections for the probable winners moving on from the Olympic quarterfinal round.

Seed No. 1: Roger Federer’s Quarter

World No. 1 Roger Federer will begin action against Alejandro Falla of Columbia—a player Federer has defeated each of the previous five times the two have played—on grass.

This, however, is not as easy a match as it might appear at first glance because Falla has become increasingly competitive over the years, giving Federer a real battle at their last Wimbledon meeting in 2010.

In the second round, Federer could face the winner of the match between Julien Benneteau of France and Mikhail Youzhny of Russia. Both had very impressive runs at Wimbledon in 2012. Federer faced both, defeating Youzhny in the quarterfinals.

Benneteau, for his part, made things mighty exciting during the third round.  The Frenchman almost upset the mighty Swiss—extending him to five sets, during which Federer staved off match points.

If Federer survives round two, he will no doubt meet Denis Istomin of Uzbekistan or Gilles Muller of Luxembourg in the third round.

In the bottom of his quarter, expect the No. 10 seed John Isner or Janko Tipsarevic, seeded No. 7,  to survive to face Federer—although it is never smart to discount the genius of David Nalbandian on any surface. 

Quarterfinal winner: Roger Federer

Seed No. 4: David Ferrer’s Quarter

In David Ferrer’s quarter of the draw, Juan Martin del Potro, seeded eighth, sits in the bottom half of the quarter—meaning that if the seeding holds, the two men will meet in the quarterfinals.

But before either man gets there, each has some serious work to do. Ferrer could meet German Phillipp Kohlschreiber in the second round after dispatching Vasek Pospisil of Canada.

Kohlschreiber, who advanced to the quarterfinals at the 2012 Wimbledon championships, plays better on grass than any other surface. The German could present real problems to the No. 4 seed.

In the second round, if Ferrer survives Kohlschreiber, the Spaniard might expect to see Bernard Tomic—should the Australian locate his missing game.

Or, the No. 4 seed might face traditionally difficult Radek Stepanek, Nicolas Davydenko or even ever-improving Kei Nishikori of Japan, seeded No. 15 at the Olympics.  Any of these men are capable of winning their way into the third round.

For del Potro, the Argentine’s path through the draw seems considerably easier until (perhaps) meeting Gilles Simon, seeded twelfth, in the third round.

This quarter, overall, cries out for an early-round upset dismissing Ferrer prior to the quarterfinals.

Quarterfinal winner: Juan Martin del Potro

Seed No. 3: Andy Murray’s Quarter

Andy Murray’s quarter of the draw has several potential pitfalls. Making the quarterfinals for the Brit may test his endurance and resolve.

His opening-round match pits him against Swiss Stanislas Wawrinka, who continues to play Murray tough throughout their head-to-head matches. Although Murray leads 6-4, their last Wimbledon encounter in 2009 saw the Swiss extending him to five sets before Murray dismissed Wawrinka.

Richard Gasquet, the No. 16 seed, is Murray’s potential third-round opponent. Gasquet, too, has played extremely well against the No. 3 seed on the grass courts of Wimbledon. Murray came back after being down two sets-to-none in 2008 to win his match with the Frenchman in five. The Brit, however, dispatched Gasquet in straight sets in 2011.

Sitting at the bottom of Murray’s quarter is the No. 6 seed Tomas Berdych, who also has enjoyed much success at Wimbledon. Berdych advanced to the finals in 2010, losing to Rafael Nadal after he beat both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic to get there.

In order for Berdych to reach the quarterfinals, he would have to get past American Ryan Harrison in the second round as well as Victor Troicki or Nicolas Almagro in the third round.

Murray facing Berdych in the quarterfinals, should both reach that round, would be an extremely competitive match.

Quarterfinal Winner: Andy Murray

Seed No. 2 Novak Djokovic’s Quarter

The No. 2 seed Novak Djokovic has medaled at the Summer Games before, winning bronze in 2008. He would like to do better in 2012 by winning a gold medal, but, in order to do that, the Serb has to win some serious encounters on the lawns at the All England Club.

Sitting at the bottom of Djokovic’s quarter is the No. 5 seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Frenchman has reached the semifinals of the Wimbledon championships for the past two years, losing to Djokovic and to Murray in 2011 and 2012, respectively.

For Djokovic to reach the quarterfinals and meet Tsonga, the Serb must overcome Italian Fabio Fognini in his opener. Then, no doubt, Djokovic must defeat Andy Roddick of the USA in the second round, followed by (perhaps) Croat Marin Cilic, the No. 13 seed, in the third round.

Tsonga also has no easy route to the quarterfinals. Tsonga should face the big-serving Canadian Milos Raonic in the second round, which promises to be a very explosive match. Juan Monaco could be waiting for Tsonga in the third round. 

Tsonga versus Djokovic would be one of the best quarterfinal matches of the tennis competition at the Summer Games—if both survive to get there.

Quarterfinal winner: Novak Djokovic

The No. 1 Seed: Victoria Azarenka’s Quarter

Victoria Azarenka is the No. 1 seed at the Summer Olympics in the women’s draw. Waiting at the bottom of her quarter is the German player Angelique Kerber.

The German, seeded No. 7, made it to the semifinals of the Wimbledon championships in 2012, losing to eventual finalist Agnieszka Radwanska.

In order to reach the quarterfinals, however, Azarenka must get past Maria Martinez Sanchez of Spain, who advanced to the third round at Wimbledon in 2008 and 2011.

In the third round, expect Azarenka to meet either Jie Zheng of China or Nadia Petrova of Russia.

Kerber, on the other hand, could meet American Venus Williams or Italy’s Sara Errani in the third round.

Should Azarenka and Kerber meet in the quarterfinals, the two will both fight for every point, promising an exhilarating match.

Quarterfinal Winner: Victoria Azarenka

The No. 4 Seed: Serena Williams’ Quarter

In Serena Williams’ quarter are several players who may present the No. 4 seed with problems.

First of all, Serena must overcome former world No. 1 Jelena Jankovic in the opening round.

Should Williams survive, she would no doubt move on to face the No. 11 seed Vera Zvonareva or Italy’s Francesca Schiavone in the third round.

The No. 8 seed Caroline Wozniacki of Denmark has been drawn into the bottom half of Williams’ quarter, seeded to meet Serena in the quarterfinals.

However, Wozniacki must get by Belgian Yanina Wickmayer or Anabel Medina Garrigues of Spain in the second round.

This would allow the Dane to progress to meet probable third-round opponent and No. 10 seed Li Na of China or Tamira Paszek of Bulgaria, who made it to the quarterfinals at this year’s Wimbledon championships.

Should Wozniacki meet Williams in the quarters, expect Williams to move on.

Quarterfinal Winner: Serena Williams

The No. 3 Seed: Maria Sharapova’s Quarter

Maria Sharapova’s quarter is highlighted by a potential juggernaut in the third round, when the Russian is seeded to face German Sabine Lisicki, assuming neither player is upset in the first two rounds.

The No. 15 seed Liscki, of course, defeated Sharapova in the fourth round of this year’s Wimbledon competition, playing some of her best tennis of the season.

Sitting in the bottom half of Sharapova’s quarter is Samantha Stosur, who has never done well on the grass courts of Wimbledon.

The No. 5 seed, Stosur could face Belgian Kim Clijsters in the second round. Clijsters is always capable of playing great tennis on any surface, although she did not fare well at this year’s Wimbledon championships.

No doubt Ana Ivanovic, seeded eleventh, will survive to the third round where she might meet either Stosur or Clijsters.

Ivanovic should win and move on the quarters where she will face the winner of Sharapova or Lisicki.

Quarterfinal winner: Sabine Lisicki

The No. 2 Seed: Agnieszka Radwanska’s Quarter

Poland’s Agnieszka Radwanska’s quarter of the women’s draw is probably the most difficult. The No. 2 seed starts her quest for Olympic gold having to face German Julia Goerges, who has been playing very well of late.

The second round promises a meeting with Varvara Lepchenko, a new citizen of the USA, while Radwanska’s third round opponent will no doubt be Russian Maria Kirilenko.

The Russian made it to the quarterfinals of this year’s Wimbledon, where she lost to Radwanska in three tough sets. Kirilenko will be seeded No. 14 at the Olympics.

At the opposite end of Radwanska’s quarter is the No. 6 seed Petra Kvitova of the Czech Republic, who should survive to the third round.

There she would face Tsvetana Pironkova of Bulgaria, whose play on grass is always her best.

Pironkova made it to the semifinals of Wimbledon in 2010 but lost in the quarterfinals in 2011 to Kvitova. The Bulgarian advanced to this year’s second round at Wimbledon before falling to Maria Sharapova.

Kvitova lost in the semifinals of Wimbledon in 2012 to eventual champion Serena Williams but won the Wimbledon championship in 2011

Radwanska versus Kvitova would be an exciting match as well.

Quarterfinal Winner: Agnieszka Radwanska