Georgia Football: Pre-August Predictions for 2012

Only six more weeks until college football kicks off the 2012 season. No more NBA, no more college baseball, no more NHL; nothing left but some Major League Baseball to keep our minds occupied for now.

Hey, baseball is great. But 162 regular season games? I usually get interested in MLB about the second month of football season.

Whoops! I forgot something this year. It's the Summer Olympics which start in about two weeks. Hey, they are good fun. So I'm all up for them. But, we still have two bloody (British lingo) weeks! So, what to do for that period of time?

Back to football! I have analyzed and studied. I have compared and speculated. I have tried my level best to be a good student of the game and properly do the due diligence. And, I am happy to announce I have put together a getting-closer-to-the-real-thing, list of predictions for the 2012 Georgia Bulldog schedule.

Mind you, it's still a bit early in the year and some things are bound to change. But, I feel good this reflects where we are right now, about six weeks out. Remember now: We still have all of fall practice and whatever will happen during the season. But, if we started now and no one got hurt, this is how I see it playing out for UGA's regular season.

Here we go, Georgia's schedule game for game in the almost famous pre-Olympic Games football predictions of 2012.

September 1: Buffalo at Georgia

Back in 2005, Buffalo played in the MAC championship game. Back in 2008, Buffalo played in the only bowl game in school history. They lost to UConn 38-20. Last year, Buffalo played U.T. in Knoxville. The Vols were a 28 point favorite, they covered, 41-10.

Last year, Buffalo beat Stoney Brook 35-7, Ohio 38-37 and Akron 51-10. Buffalo is returning 15 starters and have a third year coach. They should win more than three games this year. Georgia should be a 31 point favorite and should cover.

Buffalo is playing this game for a check. Buffalo is a cold place to live in the winter time.

Pre-Olympic Games Football Prediction: GEORGIA—47  BUFFALO—13

September 8: Georgia at Missouri Tigers

Missouri is a good football team. Take them lightly at your peril. I want to make a couple of unit comparisons based on projected starters, just to give folks an idea of how closely these guys compare.

Missouri's O-Line—Missouri starts three seniors, a junior and a sophomore across the front five. They average 6'5" and 299 pounds. They replace two, three-year starters and a two-year starter. Between the three, they had 38 starts last year. Missouri averaged 244 yards rushing per game last year. My money says this line is a little too light and inexperienced to get gaudy rush numbers like that this year in the SEC.

Georgia's D-Line—Georgia starts three seniors across the D-line and their two outside linebackers are juniors. Their linemen average 6'3" and 310 pounds. They are extremely good athletes and very quick, even with the 310 average pounds. That average weight can be deceiving as they play a 3-4 and the nose tackle weighs 351 pounds. The two outside linebackers average 6'3" and 238 pounds. According to Phil Steele's preseason rankings (page 50), this Georgia defensive line is the best in the nation.

On paper, these two teams are very close. Both averaged over 32 points scored per game last year. Missouri averaged giving up 23.5 points per game to Georgia's 20.6. Both beat two ranked teams last year. Georgia returns 16 starters and Missouri returns 12. Both teams return all-conference honor contender junior QB's. Missouri should get about a 4.5 point home field advantage at their stadium according to Phil Steele's rankings (page 57).

It appears to me that Missouri played an overall schedule that was comparable to Georgia's in 2011. They lost at No. 1 Oklahoma by 10, at No. 20 Kansas St. by seven, to No. 6 Oklahoma State by 21, won at No. 16 Texas A&M by seven and beat No. 21 Texas by 12 at home. Overall, a decent schedule, mixed with the good teams were a few weaker ones.

Missouri may be moving to the SEC long term, but this is a home game and they are excited to begin their SEC schedule at home. Another intangible is that the Missouri team is very likely sick and tired of hearing how good the SEC is and can they measure up. I think this will be a very close game and it could go either way.

Pre-Olympic Games Football Prediction: GEORGIA—23  MISSOURI—20 

September 15: Florida Atlantic Owls at Georgia

FAU has a new coach this year named Carl Pelini. Coach Pelini is the brother of Bo Pelini, the successful head coach at Nebraska. This team is Carl Pelini's first head coaching job. He has worked as an assistant with his brother the past four years at Nebraska.

Howard Schnellenberger is FAU's only other coach in history. Last season at age 77, Coach Schnellenberger retired from FAU at year's end. The famed coach was hired by FAU to build a football program in 2001. By 2003, the new team had a 11-3 record. In 2004, he moved the team up to the FBS and still finished with a 9-3 record. By '07 and '08, the coach took them to and won their first bowl games as a program. 

Howard Schnellenberger was the offensive coordinator on Paul "Bear" Bryant's Alabama staff during the national championship seasons of 1961, 1964 and 1965. In 1970, Don Shula hired him as the offensive coordinator for the Miami Dolphins. He held this position during the 1972 Super Bowl championship team that is famed for being the only team in the history of the NFL to go through the entire season undefeated.

Coach Schnellenberger gained additional fame as the coach who resurrected the program at the University of Miami. He built and coached the team that won their first football national championship 31-30 over Nebraska in 1983. That was the first of several football national championships to be won by The U.

I'm sharing this history about Coach Schnellenberger with you because it is much more interesting than comparing FAU stats. They are just overmatched at every position against this Georgia team.

Pre-Olympic Games Football Prediction: GEORGIA—44 FLORIDA ATLANTIC—6

September 22: Vanderbilt Commadores at Georgia

James Franklin has gotten them fired up in Nashville. Six wins and a bowl appearance last year; he's a working machine in the recruiting wars. He has the team competitive and brimming with confidence.

He is also feisty. Loudly taking issue with UT coach Derek Dooley after their game last year. According to NBC Sports, Dooley was recorded in his locker room celebrating with his players when he said, "The one thing that Tennessee always does is kick the s*** out of Vanderbilt."

Franklin is not likely to catch any team by surprise this year. That is how it goes when you win more than folks thought you would in the SEC. Nobody is going to be over-looking Vanderbilt this season.

Though I certainly think Coach Franklin deserves credit for injecting passion into that program, I just don't think he is the next Mark Richt or Vince Dooley, or probably not even Derek Dooley. But, he did a good job last year and his early recruiting returns look good for 2013.

As a side note, I must disagree with Franklin's public comments regarding what was said in the UT locker room by their coach to his team. What a coach says to motivate his team inside his team's locker ought to stay there. If some reporter asks you for your public comment on something that should be private, you should be upset with the reporter, or with no one at all. But certainly not with the other coach or his players. Just one guy's thoughts.

Pre-Olympic Games Football Prediction: GEORGIA—28 VANDERBILT—13

September 29: Tennessee Vols at Georgia

Georgia beat a banged up UT team in Knoxville last year, 20-12. Tennessee's starting quarterback, Tyler Bray, broke a finger on his throwing hand and had to come out of the game in the fourth quarter. His backup, Matt Simms, lead UT to their final score of the day. An on-side kick after the score was recovered by Georgia and they got a first down to finish off the clock and the Vols.

The real story was the Georgia defense wound up holding UT to minus 20 yards rushing for the game. The Vols awful run game and a 15 yard bad snap, combined with Georgia's swarming defense to make the UT ground game one of its worst ever performances. Still, this was a ball game through the first half. The score when Georgia kicked off in the third quarter was knotted 6-6.

Now, it is 2012. I can go on and on about how much the Vols have improved in their run game, how the pass game is healthy again and how the defense will be fairly stout. All that said, Tennessee's best secret weapon is that Georgia may be peeking ahead towards the South Carolina game the next week.

Still, none of that really matters as the 'Dogs have the Volunteers between the hedges and that five-point Sanford Stadium advantage should be plenty to handle the improving Volunteers. Here is where I wish I could use my Leonard's Loser schtick.

Pre-Olympic Games Football Prediction: GEORGIA—31 TENNESSEE—24

October 6: Georgia at South Carolina Gamecocks

There have been lots of comments by Georgia fans about the Bulldogs giving the game away in 2011. But Carolina made mistakes too. They also made plays. Like South Carolina second-team All-American defensive end Melvin Ingram's 68-yard fake punt run for a touchdown. Then, his scoop and score of the Jadeveon Clowney forced fumble on a sack of Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray.

This year, we can analyze teams and units and compare for hours and we will find little room between these two. The SEC East Champion is projected to come from one of them. So, this should be a very good game, regardless of both team's mistakes from 2011. 

South Carolina does get about a 5-point home field advantage this year, about the same Georgia got last year. The difference is Georgia seemed not to take full advantage last season.

Should the Georgia staff or players be as hyped up over the game as the Georgia fans are, this could become a problem for the Bulldogs. Expect Coach Spurrier to throw out a couple of well timed quips to relieve tension from his team by trying to draw it to himself as the game gets near.

The Georgia players and coaches must not buy into what their own fanbase has been venting about. The fans seem to be concentrating too much on what caused the loss last year. Making some of their comments appear the loss was all Georgia's doing. It is best to just forget the bad things that happened last year and remember how good this Carolina team really is. Don't forget, Marcus Lattimore ran the ball for 176 yards on Georgia's defense last year. Those yards had nothing to do with the turnovers or other mistakes Georgia made.

I believe this is where Mark Richt could come through and keep his players and staff grounded, even as the fans around him, do what we do. But, as it stands now, I give the nod to Carolina on home field advantage alone. This game is going to be close and Georgia may well win it.

Pre-Olympic Games Football Prediction: SOUTH CAROLINA—21 GEORGIA—20

October 20: Georgia at Kentucky Wildcats

Joker Phillips' Kentucky Wildcats kept it close and lost an ugly game to the Bulldogs 19-10 last year. In Kentucky's next game, they beat Tennessee 10-7 for their season finale.

While neither of these feats are earth-shattering accomplishments, it is just enough to give the Georgia coaches something to talk about leading up to this year's game.

The close but ugly 19-10 Georgia win in Athens last year and that same style by Kentucky in their 10-7 win over Tennessee say all you need to know. Joker Phillips is looking to play ball control, take no chances and stay in the game. Then, hope for a couple of mistakes. Last year they got enough from UT but not quite from Georgia.

I say Georgia isn't playing along this year.

Pre-Olympic Games Football Prediction: GEORGIA—35 KENTUCKY—10

October 27: Georgia vs the Florida Gators in Jacksonville

Here are some Florida—Georgia facts for you:

The Bulldogs have gone 0-4 the last four times they beat Florida in the previous year. In the past 22 years, Georgia is 4-18 versus Florida.

Here is some Georgia—Florida news for you:

Georgia is a much better overall football team than Florida this year. That is not just my humble opinion. Every preseason magazine has Georgia ranked higher. Doc's Sports.com has them ranked considerably higher, as a possible SEC title contender.

A lot of the reason is because Florida has some issues on the offensive side of the football. As in, they are not the kind of Florida good people became accustomed to in the Urban Myer years. But, they don't have Tim Tebow, either. Their defense is still pretty good. But, it's just Georgia's time to beat these guys two years in a row:

Pre-Olympic Games Football Predictions: GEORGIA—27 FLORIDA—14

November 3: Ole Miss at Georgia

Do you like the new mascot for the Ole Miss Rebels? I don't. I think it looks like a kids teddy bear.

I understand that the South has changed. If it was offensive to black students to keep old Colonel Reb as the mascot, and the school decided to change, OK by me. But, this little teddy bear creature is more like something you put in your one-year-old's bed to snuggle up to for nighty night. 

I recall reading that it has something to do with a book that was published by a famous citizen around there. OK, good for you guys, Mississippi! 

Back to football. Ole Miss was 2-10 last year and have a new coach (Hugh Freeze) who went 10-2 at Arkansas State in 2011. I don't know a lot about how he does things yet but I bet he makes them better next year. Better, but they just don't have the talent they need to compete with the upper levels yet.

Pre-Olympic Games Football Prediction: GEORGIA—30 MISSISSIPPI—13 (and the little bear thingy probably makes $75,000 plus per year)

November 10: Georgia at Auburn Tigers

Auburn is a team that is re-inventing itself right in front of our eyes. Gone this year is their super offensive coordinator, Gus Malzahn (Arkansas State, head coach) and last year's defensive coordinator, Ted Roof (Penn State). Ted Roof''s read and react defense really wasn't making the SEC grade, as it allowed about 29 points per game last year.

Scott Loeffler, who was the offensive coordinator at Temple last year and quarterbacks coach at Florida in '09 and '10, will be bringing in a more pro style offense.

Brian VanGorder is the new defensive coordinator. He is a good one. He held the same post with Georgia from 2001 through 2004 and the Atlanta Falcons the past four years. He also has one year of head coaching experience with Georgia Southern (2006). VanGorder has more of an attacking style in the college game. So, expect Auburn's defensive points per game to drop significantly under him. 

Last year in Athens, everything went right for the Bulldogs. It was just one of those kind of games. Don't expect things to work quite that well at Jordan-Hare, Georgia fans.

This Auburn team isn't the one that won the national championship and went 14-0 a couple of years ago. But, they still know how to play the game. I call for this to be another rebuilding year with all the change, but things are about to get a lot better down at the loveliest village on the plains.

Pre-Olympic Games Football Prediction: GEORGIA—28 AUBURN—20

November 17: Georgia Southern Eagles at Georgia

The Georgia Southern Eagles are ranked No. 2 in the FCS preseason rankings for 2012. They have lost in the national semifinals for the past two seasons and are hungry to win it all.

All true Georgia fans know the story about Georgia Southern. Beginning in 1982 with Erk Russell, who was Georgia's defensive coordinator for 17 years, and right up until this day is the story of a success in building and maintaining a college football powerhouse.

For some of you younger fans, I suggest you go to their website and check out the whole story. It is really great stuff. Also, if you want to see some hard hitting, well played triple option football, take a trip to Statesboro and catch a home game sometime.

All that said, even though they are FCS, if Georgia isn't ready to play this game, you will see all the triple option football you want, right at Sanford Stadium. Last season, with 7:01 to play in the third quarter against Alabama, Georgia Southern was only down 31-21.

This was the same Alabama team that had been allowing opponents only 55 rush yards per game. Georgia Southern ran for 302 against them. Alabama won the ball game 45-21, but this wasn't a sleeper.

Georgia, like Alabama last year, should out-athlete Georgia Southern. But don't fall asleep on these guys or you will regret it.

Pre-Olympic Games Football Prediction: GEORGIA—41 GEORGIA SOUTHERN—21

November 24: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Georgia

For the second straight week, Georgia will face a triple option team. Playing Georgia Southern the week before will help the Georgia defenders a great deal. Against any option attack, defenders must play assignment football. 

Some extremely good players, accustomed to making spectacular defensive plays using their speed and strength can be made to look silly by a good option team. The offense Georgia Tech runs uses their own tendencies against that type of player. During a normal prep week, it is sometimes difficult to properly drive the point home to your players.

Georgia Tech's offensive front five averages 6'3", 288 lbs. This is a bit on the smallish size for the teams the Bulldogs are accustomed to playing. They run a 3-4 defense that is coached by former Virginia head coach Al Groh. This is his third year at Tech and I expect the defense to be much improved over last year.

Last season, Georgia hit a field goal at the end of the first half to go up 17-10. Once they got that lead up to 24-10 in the third quarter, Tech had to go more to passing and get away from its triple option run game. Their offense is not designed well for coming from behind. They need to keep the score within seven to 10 points normally to stay with their game plan in the second half.

Look for Georgia to try and jump out on Tech early using a heavy dose of passing. If that works, things will go about like last year. If Tech can keep the game close, it could become interesting late.

Pre-Olympic Games Football Prediction: GEORGIA—30 GEORGIA TECH—20 

Wrap Up

Like I said earlier, we still have a ways to go. But, if Georgia could play all the games now and if no one ever got hurt (ha!), this is where I see their team.

Of course, if things play out this way, Georgia would finish the regular season at 11-1. If they do this, I expect them to represent the SEC East again in the championship game in Atlanta. Depending on who and how it goes, this team could find their way into the national championship game.

One thing for sure, Georgia fans, this is a good football team. Also, anyone who tries to say that Mark Richt is somehow lacking or can't reach the big game is wrong in my humble opinion. I believe the single best thing to happen to Bulldog football in the past several years, is their retaining Mark Richt last year.

Enjoy the Olympics and GO TEAM U.S.A.!