Doug Martin: What Are the Realistic Expectations in 2012?

Doug Martin was drafted because he is capable of carrying an offense.

After all, he rushed for more than 3,400 yards and 43 scores in three seasons as the starter at Boise State.

So while we've established the fact that Martin displayed the ability to do so on campus, the question remains whether or not he is able to carry an NFL offense.

Does he look impressive on tape? Absolutely. The tape shows a back adept at making plays when it mattered most.

That said, the last time I glanced at Tampa Bay's 2012 schedule, I didn't see Nevada, Colorado State or Wyoming listed.

Why does that matter?

Well, in those three games last season, Martin rushed for 479 yards (159.6 YPG) and seven touchdowns—against teams with a combined record of 18-20. 

In contrast, he rushed for just 57 yards against Georgia and 75 yards against Tulsa with two total touchdowns—both teams had a combined record of 18-9.

Look, that doesn't mean I don't believe in Martin or his abilities, or that I think the Bucs were wrong in selecting him. Because truthfully speaking, I think the world of his potential.

But at the same time, I also think Bucs fans should take a step back and look at the player for who he really is: a rookie running back with a long way to go before he is fully developed.

Will he show flashes and glimpses of his potential this season? Most likely. There will be plays where it looks like he should've been a top 10 pick.

But he will also display moments of inexperience and ineptitude and make it look like the Bucs reached too high by drafting him 31st overall.

So, how will the "Muscle Hamster" fare in 2012?

A lot depends on how the running back competition unfolds during camp and preseason.

Incumbent LeGarrette Blount has made it no secret that he intends on holding onto the No. 1 running back position and would not like splitting carries with another back, so perhaps a motivated Blount will secure his starting role to begin the season.

That said, barring injury, Martin will have plenty of opportunities to showcase his talents throughout the course of the season, as head coach Greg Schiano wants to establish a run-first offense.

When it's all said and done, I imagine Martin finishing 2012 with numbers somewhere in the ballpark of 600-750 yards with five touchdowns on 120-150 carries.

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