Notre Dame: In or Out?

Here's a puzzling team.  They start off 12-3, beat Georgetown and Texas and are ranked No. 7 in the nation at one point.  That is pretty respectable, eh?  Well, that same team rails off seven straight...losses, that is.  Now what, 12-10 and 3-7 in the conference isn't tournament material. 

After that, they go bezerk to the tune of 90 points and beat the No. 5 team in the land, Louisville,  by a whopping 33 points.  Talk about consistency.  As of now, the Irish sit at 14-10, 5-7 in the Big East.  Right now you can't put them in or out.  But what about their position come Selection Sunday?  Let's take a look at some scenarios. 

Notre Dame's remaining schedule is as follows:

Feb. 18 @ West Virginia
Feb. 21 @ Providence
Feb. 25 vs. Rutgers
Feb. 28 @ UConn
March 2 vs. Villanova
March 6 vs. St. Johns

Let's try Scenario No. 1: the Irish are as good as their once No. 7 ranking and they win all of these games except at UConn and Finish 19-11, 10-8.  Regardless of their Big East Tournament performance, 19 wins including ones over Georgetown, Texas, Louisville, @ Providence, @ WVU, and Villanova would probably put the Irish in.

What about Scenario No. 2? The Irish are pretty decent, but not great.  They split the road games to West Va. and Providence while losing to Connecticut and winning  the home games.  That puts them at 18-12, 9-9.  Pretty good, considering they play in the Big East.  At that point, I would put them as a No. 11 seed, but they might need to get a win in the Big East Tourney to solidify themselves in the selection committee's mind.

But what about this, Scenario No. 3: the Irish are a fluke, and the Louisville game was pure luck.  They lose all road games and to Villanova.  16-14, 7-11.  Definitely not good enough.  17-13, 8-10 probably wouldn't cut it either.

Basically, the Irish need to hit 18 or 19 wins to put themselves in.  But after the Louisville game, you'd have to think: A team that pounded a top-ranked team by 33 should be in.  Let's see how the boys finish their season.  Maybe Harangody and McAlarney can light it up and lead Notre Dame to a third Straight NCAA Tourney appearance.