Stat Predictions for the Atlanta Falcons' Key Offensive Players

The Falcons open 2012 with a brand new offensive scheme that promises to lead to some explosive numbers. Dirk Koetter comes in with a way to increase production for quite a few players, and his scheme should allow for better pass protections.

Koetter also believes in the run game, though, and expect the Falcons backs to have a very solid year there as well. In exploring possible numbers for the offense, the biggest thing that could prevent any of these numbers from happening is poor play from the offensive line. However, expect the line to be much better in 2012 and the Falcons offense to put up top-notch numbers across the board.

QB Matt Ryan

Projected Stats

350 completions on 575 attempts, 60.9 percent completion percentage

4500 yards, 7.9 yards per attempt

35 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

With a new coordinator, people would normally expect the quarterback's numbers to take a downturn. However, he has been conferencing with Koetter and Smith on how to build the offense around the team's strengths. One of which is his arm, and another is the leadership that allows him to have straightforward interactions with his new coach (h/t ProFootballTalk's Darin Gantt):

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“Matt will look you in the eye and tell you how he sees it …,” Koetter said. “By the same token, I can tell him what I think, what I see and what the coaching staff sees. He takes coaching well, but he also gives good feedback.”

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So expect Ryan to have yet another career year. This time, he should look like that top-five quarterback that he is, and his stats will just be one part of the equation. Expect Ryan to air the ball out a bit more and take a small hit to completion percentage. However, his yards per attempt and touchdowns should be up this year.

RB Michael Turner

Projected Stats

225 carries, 950 yards, 4.2 yards per carry, 8 touchdowns, 2 fumbles

25 catches, 200 yards, 8.0 yards per catch, 2 touchdowns

Michael Turner should truly have his carries reduced for the first time in his career this year. However, the explosive runs that he used to make on carries 22, 23 or 24 in a game will have to come earlier than that. With a better offensive line, he should be able to improve on the 2.84 average yardage from 280 carries that weren't explosive (h/t Knox Bardeen of Bleacher Report).

Should he turn that 2.84 yards into a much improved 3.5-3.6 yards per carry due to the better offensive line, Turner could still get close to another 1,000-yard season as the primary back. He should see quite a reduction in carries, though, as Rodgers emerges, but he should also see a spike in his catches from previous seasons with the improved screen game that Koetter brings.

RB Jacquizz Rodgers

Projected Stats

125 carries, 575 yards, 4.6 yards per carry, 3 touchdowns, 1 fumble

40 catches, 375 yards, 9.4 yards per catch, 2 touchdowns

The Falcons are expecting big things out of the diminutive back in 2012. Rodgers is an explosive type player who will burst on the scene in 2012 due to the screens getting more emphasis in Atlanta. He also should be seeing quite a bit of outside runs as well. Rodgers is deceptively fast, and despite running a 4.52 in the 40-yard dash at his pro day, he tends to look faster in pads. Falcons running back coach Gerald Brown said this about Rodgers (h/t D.Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution):

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Even last year, when we game planned, we made sure that Quizz had some touches because he can do some things in the run and pass game. He’s an explosive player and we’ll try to get him the ball.

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And this year, expect more game planning for Rodgers to have the ball in his hands. While he may never get to the level that Darren Sproles is at, he doesn't have to. He is more of a pure runner, and while he doesn't have breakaway speed, he could end up in a long-term role similar to what Warrick Dunn played.

WR Roddy White

Projected Stats

85 catches, 1150 yards, 13.5 yards per catch, 8 touchdowns

White is expected to receive a reduced role in the 2012 offense. However, don't be shocked if his targets drop in 2012 as part of Koetter's new scheme. Koetter will try to work in Julio Jones and Harry Douglas more, and even White himself has acknowledged he will have a reduced role (h/t D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution):

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“I know that sounds crazy, but we’ve got other guys out there that can play,” White said. “Julio [Jones] is going to be a big part of the offense this year. Harry [Douglas] is going to do wonders in the slot. We have to maximize our talent and get the ball in everyone’s hands.”

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But don't expect White's targets to drop more than about 30-35 total from the league-leading 175 he had last season. He should still see the ball quite a bit and has been working on his hands. Should Roddy put the stats listed above up, he will be just the third wide receiver in NFL history to have six straight seasons of at least 80 catches, 1,150 yards and six touchdowns.

WR Julio Jones

Projected Stats

80 catches, 1325 yards, 16.6 yards per catch, 12 touchdowns

As noted previously, Julio Jones could have a truly dominant season and challenge for Jerry Rice's single season receiving record either this year or at some point in his career. Last year, he played in just 13 games and was out for at least half of another two games and still put up ridiculous numbers for a rookie. Expect more of the same from him this season.

Jones has earned the praise of coaches, players and opposing defenses around the league and should be expected to explode in the new vertically-based offense. Expect Jones and White to be household names by the end of the year, and look for them to be the best wide receiver duo since Cris Carter and Randy Moss.

WR Harry Douglas

Projected Stats

45 catches, 650 yards, 13.3 yards per catch, 3 touchdowns

Harry Douglas re-signed this offseason to a four-year deal, mainly because he wanted to stay close to the home he grew up in. Douglas is in a spot that he will have a career year due to more targets and a more spread out passing game. In the four verticals offense, expect Douglas to break out in Koetter's offense, especially since Koetter was a big reason why he returned in the first place (h/t AtlantaFalcons.com's Daniel Cox):

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“Coach Koetter, he’s a good guy,” Douglas said. “I sat down and talked with him before I signed back here. The stuff he sees and the stuff he does, it’s good. It’s good because he’s going to play to our strengths. It’s always good when you can do that.”

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Another thing that could be added to Douglas' repertoire this year is punt returner. Should the speedy Douglas earn that job, he could be very beneficial to the Falcons offense in more ways than just in the slot.

TE Tony Gonzalez

Projected Stats

60 catches, 675 yards, 11.3 yards per catch, 5 touchdowns

With the emergence of Julio Jones and addition of Harry Douglas, expect the Falcons to throw to the future NFL Hall of Fame tight end much less in 2012. Gonzalez is nearing the end of his career and should enjoy 2012 as the first year he is the No. 3 target in an offense. 

Expect him to reach the following career milestones in 2012 as well: 1,200 catches, 14,000 yards and 100 touchdowns in his illustrious career. He changed the game and, in 2012, could change the outcomes to many Falcons games.

Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist and Trends and Traffic Writer for Bleacher Report. As a Featured Columnist, he covers the Atlanta Falcons, NFL and NFL Draft. He is also the Falcons analyst at Drafttek and also runs the NFL Draft Website ScarDraft.com and the host of Kvetching Draftniks Radio.

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