Home Run Derby 2012: Predicting Each Participant's Success

Hitting a home run is one of the manliest things in sports.

A batter takes a baseball and launches it 400-plus feet at 100 miles per hour over the heads of eight helpless defenders, and that’s why there are so much bragging rights attached to the 2012 Home Run Derby. Here’s a projection of how each participant will fare.

AL

4. Mark Trumbo

Trumbo is a phenomenal home-run hitter and at 6’4”, 220-pounds, he has the size to blow up in the derby. But given that it’s his first time competing, he’ll likely get off to a slow start.

3. Robinson Cano

As the defending champion, you know Cano is going to bring it. He hit the third highest total in derby history last year, so he won’t go easy this time around.

2. Jose Bautista

Jose Bautista only hit four bombs in last year’s derby, but consider that a warm up. With a year of experience under his belt, the MLB leader in home runs will go off on Monday.

1. Prince Fielder

Prince Fielder was made for the Home Run Derby. The 275-pound monster is a former derby champion, and while he has only 12 home runs on the season, he’ll be getting pitches from someone who wants him to go yard instead of a pitcher who’s trying to prevent him from doing so.

NL

4. Matt Kemp

Matt Kemp is injured. He hasn’t played since May and even then he hadn’t hit a home run in his last 10 games. Throw in the fact that he only hit two long balls last year in the derby, and he’s guaranteed to struggle.

3. Carlos Gonzalez

Gonzalez isn’t a power hitter—he’s a contact hitter with power. That isn’t a good formula for Home Run Derby success. He’s 17th in the majors with 17 homers, but his regular season numbers won’t translate to the derby.

2. Carlos Beltran

Beltran is 35 years old, but he proved that he still has plenty of power hammering 20 home runs this season. But at his age, there’s a reason why this year will be his first derby—like Gonzalez, he’s just a contact hitter with power.

1. Giancarlo Stanton

If Giancarlo Stanton plans on the NL winning the derby, he’ll have to carry them. He’s 12th in the majors in bombs this year and at 6’5”, 248 pounds, he possesses the size and strength to be a home-run hitting machine.

David Daniels is a featured columnist at Bleacher Report and a syndicated writer.

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