NCAA Tournament: Projecting the Field of 65 (Mar. 10)

The bubble picture got even clearer this weekend as some "Wallflowers" (teams not quite ready to take part in the Big Dance) won very important regular season finales, while others missed their last chance to impress.

Now as we head toward the major conference tournaments, it's do or die.  I will explain exactly how many games each team needs to win to get to the NCAAs.

ACC

Dancing with a Hottie: North Carolina (1 seed), Duke (2 seed), Clemson (6 seed)

Wallflowers: Miami (9 seed), Virginia Tech (14th out), Maryland (16th out)

Clemson locked up a spot with a comeback win at home against Virginia Tech on Sunday.

The victory was the 10th in conference play for the Tigers and every ACC team with that many league victories has made the Big Dance since the field expanded to 64.

On the flip side, Va Tech was denied its 10th conference win and its first marquee victory, which is why the Hokies sit so far down in the pecking order.

But in the major conference tournaments, there are plenty of opportunities for bubblers to make up ground.

VT (0-6 vs. the top 50) has to hope that Miami holds serve against NC State in the first round so they can play, and hopefully beat, the 'Canes (No. 28 RPI) in the ACC quarters.

I don't think 1-6 vs. the top 50 will be enough, but a victory over top ranked UNC in the semis should do the trick for Virginia Tech.

As for Miami, they suffered a terrible OT loss at FSU Saturday and now need to beat bottom-dwellers NC State to punch their ticket.  The Hurricanes have three top-50 wins, so a second round loss to VT should be okay.

After blowing a 20-point lead to Clemson on March 2nd, Maryland followed up with a terrible loss at UVA.

The Terps (1-5 vs. top 50) MUST now beat BC and Clemson to have any chance.  A win over Duke in the semis should get them to the Dance.

Pac 10

Dancing with a Hottie: UCLA (1 seed), Stanford (3 seed), Washington State (4 seed), USC (7 seed)

Wallflowers: Oregon (11 seed), Arizona State (12 seed), Arizona (12 seed)

Oregon is playing well at the right time, Arizona is free-falling, while ASU continues to circle the borders of the dance floor.

The Ducks have won three straight to finish the regular season at .500 in conference—a very important place to be.  They also picked up two crucial wins over fellow Wallflowers Arizona State and Arizona to get on the right side of the bubble for now.

A win over WSU in the Pac 10 quarters should lock things up for Oregon.  A loss wouldn't eliminate them due to the strength of their four top-50 wins, but it would leave the Ducks in very bad shape depending on what else happens during Championship Week.

Since 1999, the lowest RPI to earn an at large was No. 70 Air Force in 2004.

That means No. 74 Arizona State better start winning some games, no matter what people say about their five top-50 wins (six teams missed the tournament with five top-50 wins last year).

It's about as do-or-die as it gets when the Sun Devils play USC Thursday.  Win and they're in, lose and they're out.

Arizona's RPI continues to drop (currently at 31), and that will continue when the Wildcats take on 6-23 Oregon State in the first round.  They have to beat Stanford in the quarterfinals or else I see the Wildcats heading to the NIT.

Big 12

Dancing with a Hottie: Texas (2 seed), Kansas (2 seed), Oklahoma (6 seed)

Dancing with a Butterface: Kansas State (8 seed)

Wallflowers: Texas A&M (12 seed), Baylor (13 seed), Oklahoma St (10th out), Texas Tech (11th out)

I can't see Oklahoma (25 RPI, 10 SOS, 6-7 vs. top 50) being left out even if they lose their first conference tournament game.

Kansas State may be ahead of OU in the Big 12 standings, but I put them a level below because of their 44 RPI, 27 SOS, and 3-5 record vs. the top 50.

This may be strange, but I think a Texas A&M win over Iowa State in the first round puts K-State in because the Wildcats' RPI can sustain a loss to the Aggies, but it may not be able to hold up in the eyes of the committee with a defeat at the hands of the Cyclones.

I believe A&M and Baylor have done enough this year to make the tourney with just one win this week.  But a loss in the first round, and I'd leave them out.

Oklahoma State and Texas Tech need to make the finals to have any shot.

SEC

Dancing with a Hottie: Tennessee (1 seed), Vanderbilt (5 seed), Mississippi State (8 seed)

Dancing with a Butterface: Kentucky (10 seed)

Wallflowers: Arkansas (10 seed), Mississippi (11 seed), Florida (17th out)

Everyone is locking up Kentucky at this point, but if they lose to Ole Miss or Georgia in the SEC quarters, the Wildcats could be forgotten about come Sunday.

A lot of teams behind them would have to keep winning for that to happen, but let's not forget this is a team that lost to Gardner Webb and San Diego and their RPI stands at 49 with a non-conference mark of 208.

That being said, a berth in the semis would have the Cats dancing.

Arkansas picked up an important win over Auburn on Saturday to finish at 9-7 in conference and garner a first round bye.  But, much like Kentucky, they're going to want to get in the semi-finals before they feel safe.

Ole Miss kept their chances alive by winning their third straight at Georgia on Saturday to get to 7-9 in conference.  I think another win over the Bulldogs on Thursday should put them in the field of 65.

Now wait, how come Kentucky and Arkansas need to get to the semis but Mississippi only needs to get to the quarters?

The Rebels are one of only 18 teams in the country with at least five wins vs. the top 50 and a winning record vs. the top 50.

And no, Arizona State and Arizona do not fall into that category.

Florida put themselves in a terrible hole by losing at Kentucky on Sunday.  The Gators are now 8-8 in the SEC, have a dismal RPI of 65, and hold just three wins versus the top 100.  It's finals or bust for the champs.

Big East

Dancing with a Hottie: Georgetown (2 seed), Louisville (3 seed), Notre Dame (4 seed), UConn (4 seed), Marquette (7 seed)

Dancing with a Butterface: West Virginia (9 seed), Pittsburgh (9 seed)

Wallflowers: Syracuse (11 seed), Villanova (4th out)

Syracuse played its way back into the field with a convincing win over Marquette on Saturday.  It's the second top-25 victory for the Orange in the past three weeks.

However, their stay could be brief as SU and Villanova play the quintessential do-or-die game at noon on Wednesday in the 8/9 game of the Big East Tournament.  The winner should be in, and the loser will go home.

I don't think a victory over Georgetown is necessary for either team, but that's what I thought last year when the Orange got snubbed after losing to Notre Dame in the quarters.

West Virginia and Pitt are in good shape, but first round losses could leave them a bit nervous on Selection Sunday.

Big Ten

Dancing with a Hottie: Wisconsin (3 seed), Purdue (4 seed), Indiana (5 seed), Michigan State (5 seed)

Wallflowers: Ohio State (12 seed)

Ohio State is in a position identical to Syracuse.

The Buckeyes beat two top-25 teams (Purdue and Michigan State) in the past week to get themselves back in the field for the first time since January, but they'll have to beat Sparty again in the 4/5 game to solidify a spot in the tournament.  A loss should leave them out.

Atlantic 10

Dancing with a Hottie: Xavier (3 seed)

Wallflowers: UMass (10 seed), Dayton (11 seed), Saint Joseph's (3rd out), Temple (5th out), Rhode Island (15th out)

UMass understands the name of the game—just win.

The Minutemen have won six straight to finish 10-6 in the A-10.  They also hold very important victories over fellow bubblers Syracuse, Dayton, and Rhode Island, but were swept by St. Joe's and lost to Temple in the only meeting between the two teams.

A win over Charlotte or URI in the quarters will lock them up, a loss will leave them watching a lot of other games in the A-10 Tournament.

I don't care that Dayton is 8-8 in a mid-major conference.  They've won three straight, including an enormous game versus St. Joe's this weekend, and hold victories at Louisville and home against Pitt.

They're in now and should remain in with a win over St. Louis in the 8/9 game.  A loss there will put them out, but I don't think they need to beat Xavier in Round 2.

St. Joseph's needs to get to the semis because a loss to Fordham or Richmond would be too damaging to their resume.

Temple's the two seed in this tournament, but a 110 non-conference RPI leaves the Owls with some work to do.  A win over LaSalle or Duquense in the quarters won't do a lot for them, but a berth in the finals should send Temple dancing.

URI has lost six of seven and need to win three games to have any chance.

Other At-Large Candidates

Dancing with a Hottie: Memphis (1 seed), Drake (5 seed), Butler (6 seed), Gonzaga (6 seed), St. Mary's (7 seed)

Dancing with a Butterface: BYU (7 seed), UNLV (8 seed), Kent State (8 seed), South Alabama (9 seed), Davidson (10 seed)

Wallflowers: Illinois State (1st out), Southern Illinois (2nd out), UAB (6th out), Houston (7th out), VCU (8th out), New Mexico (9th out), Western Kentucky (12th out), Creighton (13th out)

Drake won the MVC Tourney, to the delight of all bubbles, but the team they beat in the final may be the most interesting Wallflower.

Illinois State finished second in the league and lost in the tournament final but they are 0-5 versus the top 50 and that will keep them out of the Dance unless a bunch of teams fall this week.

St. Mary's lost late Sunday night in double-overtime to San Diego in the semis of the West Coast Tournament, but I still have them locked up due to wins over Drake, Oregon, and Gonzaga and the fact that last night's game was played in USD's gym.

St. Mary's also has no losses to teams ranked below 97 in the RPI.  Bubbles better hope the Zags beat San Diego in the final though.

I know BYU will most definitely be in the tournament thanks to their regular season MWC crown.  But if they lose to the Wyoming/Colorado State winner in the quarterfinals Thursday, will their resume be worthy?

The Cougars beat an injured Louisville team in Vegas back in November, but their only top-50 win since then was at home over UNLV.

The Rebels, meanwhile, might have to beat TCU and New Mexico to get a berth in the NCAAs because the conference tourney is on their home floor.  I think UNM has to get to the finals to have a shot also, so that 2/3 semi-final game could be an eliminator.

I don't agree with the people who think Kent State is a lock.  St. Mary's is the only team they've beaten that's going to the Big Dance.  Meanwhile, Kent has lost to terrible teams like Toledo and Bowling Green.

If they lose to another sub-100 team in the first round, do they deserve to get in?  I don't think so.

The same goes for South Alabama.  They have to beat Middle Tennessee and hope Western Kentucky gets to the final too because a loss there to Arkansas Little Rock should send them to the NIT.

I don't think Western Kentucky has any shot at an at-large.  They have ONE win over the top 100, and that was an OT home victory against Big 12 cellar-dweller Nebraska back in December.

Can we finally put this UAB at-large garbage to rest now that they were destroyed at Memphis by 48 points?

They have one top-50 win versus No. 49 Kentucky and five losses to teams with a triple digit RPI.  They don't deserve an at-large unless they beat Memphis, and since they can't do that until the C-USA final, the Blazers are not getting an at-large.  The same goes for Houston.